Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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000
FNUS71 KCTP 241506
FWSCTP

Spot Forecast for Trophy Squirrel...PA DCNR Bureau of Forestry
National Weather Service State College PA
1106 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 2000 EDT on April 24.

If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions or
concerns with this forecast, contact the National Weather Service
in State College.


.DISCUSSION...
Scattered rain showers are expected to continue through this
afternoon. Showers will diminish by tonight with rain-free conditions
Thursday and Friday.

Low humidity (<30% minRH) is expected in most areas on Thursday
afternoon with a potential minRH floor around 10-15% based on the
low end of the model forecast range. The wind will be light under
the influence of a seasonably strong high pressure system dropping
southward from northern Manitoba Canada. RH values will drop near
or below 30% on Friday once again with winds occasionally gusting
to 20mph. Milder temperatures and increasing moisture will
preclude fire weather concerns this weekend.


.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Areas of frost
                    overnight. Areas of frost after 3 am.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min Temperature.....Around 25.
Max Humidity........71 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 8 mph.
Mixing Height.......1100 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....North 10 to 16 mph.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................5 to 22.

TIME (EDT)          8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%)...........  51  45  39  33  27  22  16  14  12  10
Weather Cov.......                  ARS             ARS ARS
Weather Type......                  FST             FST FST
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp..............  40  38  36  34  32  31  29  28  27  26
RH................  70  70  69  69  69  66  66  68  71  71
20 FT Wind Dir....  N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT Wind Spd....  8   7   7   7   6   6   6   5   5   5
20 FT Wind Gust...  14  14  13  12  11  11  10  10  8   7
Mix Hgt (kft).....  2.2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.2
Transp Wind Dir...  N   N   N   N   N   N   NE  N   NE  N
Transp Wind Spd...  16  15  15  14  14  13  12  10  10  10
LVORI.............  3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
ADI...............  22  17  17  17  9   9   9   5   5   5
Haines Index......  4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5

.THURSDAY...

Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent). Areas of frost early in
                    the morning.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max Temperature.....Around 56.
Min Humidity........20 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northeast 5 to 6 mph early
                    in the morning.
Mixing Height.......6200 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 5 to 10 mph.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................14 to 19.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)...........  8   6   5   7   8   10  12  13  15  13  12  11
Weather Cov.......  ARS
Weather Type......  FST
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp..............  26  27  30  34  38  42  46  49  53  54  55  56
RH................  71  65  55  47  38  33  28  24  20  20  20  20
20 FT Wind Dir....  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT Wind Spd....  4   4   5   5   6   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT Wind Gust...  7   7   7   7   8   7   6   6   6   6   6   6
Mix Hgt (kft).....  1.1 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.3 3.0 3.8 4.7 5.5 5.8 6.0 6.2
Transp Wind Dir...  N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  N   N
Transp Wind Spd...  10  9   9   8   7   6   6   5   5   5   6   6
LVORI.............  3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
ADI...............  15  15  15  14  14  14  15  15  15  19  19  19
Haines Index......  5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent). Areas of frost
                    after 3 am.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min Temperature.....Around 30.
Max Humidity........75 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds around 5 mph early in the
                    evening becoming light.
Mixing Height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 6 to 8 mph shifting to the east
                    around 6 mph after 3 am.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................3 to 4.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%)...........  9   8   7   4   3   3   4   4   5   6   6   7
Weather Cov.......                                      ARS ARS ARS
Weather Type......                                      FST FST FST
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp..............  53  50  47  44  41  38  36  34  32  31  31  30
RH................  25  30  37  41  48  54  59  61  66  69  72  75
20 FT Wind Dir....  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E
20 FT Wind Spd....  5   5   5   4   4   3   3   3   3   2   2   2
20 FT Wind Gust...  6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   5   5   4   4
Mix Hgt (kft).....  4.3 2.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp Wind Dir...  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E   E
Transp Wind Spd...  6   7   7   7   8   8   8   7   7   7   6   6
LVORI.............  2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3
ADI...............  3   3   3   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3
Haines Index......  4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.FRIDAY...

Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent). Areas of frost early in
                    the morning.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max Temperature.....Around 59.
Min Humidity........37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 6 to 8 mph in
                    the late morning and early afternoon, then
                    shifting to the south around 8 mph late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing Height.......5800 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 7 to 12 mph shifting to the south 13
                    to 16 mph late in the morning.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............2 in the morning and early afternoon.
ADI.................9 to 42 in the morning and early afternoon.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)...........  6   5   4   6   8   10  13  17  20  19  17  16
Weather Cov.......  ARS
Weather Type......  FST
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp..............  32  34  36  41  45  50  52  55  57  57  58  58
RH................  72  66  64  57  51  46  43  40  37  37  37  37
20 FT Wind Dir....  E   E   E   SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT Wind Spd....  2   2   3   6   7   8   8   8   8   8   8   8
20 FT Wind Gust...  4   5   5   8   10  11  12  12  12  12  13  13
Mix Hgt (kft).....  0.6 0.8 1.0 2.1 3.2 4.4 4.8 5.2 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.8
Transp Wind Dir...  E   SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp Wind Spd...  7   7   8   9   12  13  13  14  14  15  15  16
LVORI.............  3   3   3   2   2   1   1   1   M   M   M   M
ADI...............  9   9   9   36  36  36  42  42  42  M   M   M
Haines Index......  4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

$$
Forecaster...Banghoff
Requested by...Brian L Plume
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412288.0/CTP
.DELDT 04/24/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL bplume@pa.gov
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