Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 251508 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1108 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the area slides offshore later today and tonight. A cold front then approaches Sunday night and crosses the area Monday and Monday night. High pressure returns on Tuesday before moving offshore, and then a cold front approaches late next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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On water vapor this morning the formation of another closed mid-level low appears imminent due to energy from the previous low off the NJ coast pulling away. As the previous area of low pressure becomes absorbed in the main flow and leaves behind PV, this new closed low will meander south of Nova Scotia through the near term. Over central Canada, another closed upper level low was noted slowly heading east. Across the ArkLaTex, an area of mid-level high pressure was analyzed with the ridge axis beginning to extend northeast towards New England. This will usher in much warmer temperatures today, with many locations reaching 90 degrees. Daytime cumulus looks likely with the mixing out of low-level moisture, and have added a slight chance/isolated shower into the forecast over the Poconos where terrain forcing is strongest today. A sea breeze will move inland late this afternoon into early evening with winds backing from the southwest to south. Expect low temperatures tonight in the mid to upper 60s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure will be offshore on Sunday and will continue to drift out to sea during the day. A cold front slowly approaches during the day. A few showers and thunderstorms may make it into far western zones late in the afternoon, but most of the activity will hold off until Sunday night. Cold front then slowly works its way across the region Sunday night and Monday. Upper trough with strong shortwave energy then approaches Monday afternoon and pushes that front through the region Monday night. Showers and scattered thunderstorms will affect the area mostly Sunday night through Monday, and then activity tapers off from west to east Monday night. A hot day is expected on Sunday with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, with cooler temperatures along the shores. With clouds and showers over the area on Monday, highs will be in the 70s to low 80s. Although surface dew points will be well in the 60s, the temperatures will not be warm enough to support widespread severe weather with those showers.
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&& .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure will be centered over the Ohio Valley and into western New York and western Pennsylvania Tuesday morning before gradually sliding overhead during the day, and then offshore by Wednesday. This will be the start of a period of dry weather with increasing temperatures as the week progresses. Generally sunny skies on tap with temperatures a few degrees below normal on Tuesday, and then temperatures warm up to normal levels on Wednesday. For Thursday and Friday, temperatures will take a run at the upper 80s and low 90s for most of the area. A cold front approaches towards the end of the week, and this may touch off scattered showers and thunderstorms late Friday and Friday night. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...VFR. Light southwest winds from 5 to 10 knots. A sea breeze will move inland this afternoon into evening backing winds from the south. High confidence. Tonight...VFR with light southwest winds 5-10 knots. No precipitation. Latest forecast soundings continue to show a ~5 to 8kft cloud deck forming overnight as a weak mid-level wave approaches from the northwest. Moderate confidence. Outlook... Sunday through Sunday night...VFR during the day, then sub-VFR at night in SHRA and scattered TSRA. S winds 5 to 10 kt. High confidence. Monday through Monday night...Sub-VFR conditions in SHRA and scattered TSRA. S winds 10 to 15 kt, turning W in the afternoon, then turning NW at night. Moderate confidence. Tuesday through Tuesday night...VFR. N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming LGT/VRB at night. High confidence. Wednesday...VFR. SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Sea breezes possible Wednesday afternoon, turning winds S to SE. High confidence.
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&& .MARINE... Surface high pressure will remain centered southeast of NJ and DE today. South to southwest winds of 5 to 10 kts this morning will increase in speed from the south at 10 to 15 kts this afternoon. Wind gusts of 20 to 25 kts with seas 3 to 5 ft. Overall, conditions are forecast to remain below advisory levels. Outlook... Sunday through Sunday night...Overall, sub-SCA conditions. S winds 15 to 20 kt. Occasional gusts to 25 kt Sunday afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Monday through Monday night...Generally sub-SCA conditions. SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming NW Monday night. Seas 3 to 4 feet. VSBY restrictions in showers and scattered thunderstorms. Tuesday through Tuesday night...Sub-SCA conditions. N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S Tuesday night. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Wednesday through Wednesday night...Sub-SCA conditions. S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts to 20 kt during the day. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Rip Currents... A southwest wind 5 to 10 MPH this morning will become south around 10 MPH this afternoon. Breaking waves will likely be around 2 feet with a medium period easterly swell. There should result in a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous rip currents for the NJ shore with a LOW risk for the Delaware Beaches. Similar conditions are forecast for Sunday so we are forecasting the risk to remain MODERATE for New Jersey beaches and LOW for Delaware. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...None. && $$ Synopsis...MPS Near Term...Haines/RCM Short Term...MPS/RCM Long Term...MPS Aviation...Haines/MPS/RCM Marine...Haines/MPS

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