Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 190715 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 315 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure tries to ridge across the area today while shortwave energy aloft moves through an upper trough. Low pressure crosses north of the area Wednesday and an attached front crosses the Middle Atlantic region. High pressure builds in for the end of the week. Low pressure will move along the coast Saturday before morning away Sunday. High pressure returns for early next week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Shortwave energy passing through the region may touch off some flurries, perhaps a brief snow shower in the southern Poconos, mainly for areas north and west of the I-95 corridor through daybreak. Otherwise, surface high pressure builds into the Gulf Coast states and Tennessee Valley as a deep upper trough envelops the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Cold air advection will be underway as strong northwest flow develops. Highs today will top off in the low to upper 40s, except in the 30s in the southern Poconos. Northwest winds will increase later this morning to 15 to 20 mph with 25 to 30 mph gusts. A stratocu deck will develop as well as the afternoon progresses. Shortwave energy will pass north of the area tonight. Some Lake Effect streamers will develop off of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, and some of those snow showers could make it down to northern New Jersey, the southern Poconos, and parts of the Lehigh Valley. Any QPF and snowfall will be minimal. Cloudy skies persist through tonight. Winds diminish fairly quickly after sunset and will mainly be out the south-southwest at 5 to 10 mph. Lows tonight will mainly be in the low to mid 30s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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For Wednesday, one last surge of cold and dry air works its way across the Great Lakes and towards the Middle Atlantic region. The upper trough begins to flatten and lift away after Wed/Thu. A surface low pressure (around 996mb) heads slowly across southern Ontario and towards Quebec. A cold front attached to the low crosses the area during the afternoon. There will be decent wind fields but limited moisture accompany the front. We`ll just continue with the chance pops for the northern third of the CWA and slight chance pops for the areas (mostly) north/west of I95. Could end up being gusty winds/showers for the north areas with decent inverted-V soundings present and deep mixing expected. A little sleet mixing in for the north-most areas is possible. Winds gusting over 40 mph probable. Highs will be in the 40s for the southern Poconos and north NJ while 50s elsewhere. Highs close to 60 for srn Delaware. Fair and cold Wed night with near freezing temps for the S/E areas and 20s for N/W locals. Winds diminishing to 10 to 15 mph. Fair weather Thursday, but dry and windy conditions with mostly sunny skies. Fire weather concerns--see below. Temperatures below normal with 40s and mid/upper 30s N/W. Gusty W/NW winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30/35 mph possible. Fair and cold Thu night. Lows in the 20s across the region and a few teens atop Mount Pocono.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure will still be over the area Friday, lingering from the short term part of the forecast. Dry conditions are expected along with increasing clouds during the day. It will still be cool for mid/late March with highs in the 40s and lows for Sat morning ending up in the 30s. These cooler temps will factor in the forecast Fri night when precipitation is expected to overspread the area from SW to NE as low pressure moves up the East coast. The newest 00Z CMC has trended towards the GFS runs from yesterday in bringing better QPF/lift to the area. NBM pops for the periods are now in the likely category for Fri night and Sat. P-type could start as some snow for the southern Poconos and north NJ which could create local slippery travel if precip rates increase before the sfc temps do. Highs Sat will range from the low/mid 40s for the N/W counties to the mid/upper 50s for Delmarva and south NJ. Generally went with NBM temps/pops for now. Sunday and Monday will see a return back to dry conditions with high pressure returning to the area. Just like the past few days, temps will not be in any hurry to return back to late spring levels and readings will continue mostly below normal. Highs will be in the 40s Sunday and closer to 50 for Monday. Breezy weather both days. Looking towards Tuesday, most present operational models are dry for the area and there are indications that temps may pops back near normal for a few days. Rather low confidence fcst past the weekend at this point.
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&& .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas... Today...VFR. Stratocu deck develops later this morning at 6000 to 8000 feet. NW winds 10 to 15 kt this morning will increase to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt for most of this afternoon. High confidence. Tonight...VFR. Stratocu deck at 6000 to 8000 ft will scatter out after 06Z. Winds diminish fairly quickly and become S-SW at 5 to 10 kt. High confidence. Outlook... Wed... VFR except in scattered afternoon showers. Gusty winds up to 35 kts possible with showers. Gusty winds continue into the overnight. Thu/Fri... VFR. Gusty W/NW winds especially Thu. Sat/Sat night ... Increasing clouds the sub-VFR probable by mid-morning with rains/fog developing. NE/E winds.
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&& .MARINE...
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Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for most of today due to W-NW winds 15 to 20 kt with 25 to 30 kt gusts. Seas mainly 3 to 5 feet. WInds turn SW tonight at 15 to 20 kt. Gusts to 25 kt are possible, but confidence not high enough to issue a SCA for tonight just yet. Outlook... Wed/Thu... SCA expected. Few showers Wed afternoon for the north NJ waters, otherwise Fair. Fri... Sub-SCA. Fair. Fri night thru Sunday... SCA expected. Gales possible Sunday. Rains and fog Fri night thru Sat night. Fair Sunday.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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Gusty NW winds will develop today at 15 to 20 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph. With surface dew points dropping into the teens this afternoon, Min RH values will range from 25 to 35 percent. Later this week, cold and dry air returns to the area later Wed. following a cold front. Conditions are marginal for Fire Weather following the front Wed, but become more concerning Thu. as dew points crash into the teens and single numbers. Gusty W/NW winds will develop and enhance fire spread potential. Coordination with fire weather partners and possible statements/flags for Thursday.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ430- 431-450>455.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...OHara NEAR TERM...MPS SHORT TERM...OHara LONG TERM...OHara AVIATION...MPS/OHara MARINE...MPS/OHara FIRE WEATHER...MPS/OHara

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