Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 250123 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 923 PM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A stationary front to the south will slowly begin to move northward in several waves as a strong area of high pressure to the north stubbornly moves to the east. A cold front will quickly follow the warm front`s passage Wednesday night. Dry weather should prevail through the early part of the weekend before another cold front moves toward the region Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Steadier and more widespread precip lies over central and western PA and is moving east. That rain should fill in overnight. Rain could be moderate to heavy at times for some ares, especially N/W of I-95. Onshore low-level east flow this evening should gradually veer around to the southeast towards morning. This will result in warmer and more humid air advecting into the region. Temps are not expected to fall much overnight and areas of fog are likely to develop. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... Winds will continue to veer from SE to S on Tuesday as warmer and more humid air continues to advect into the region. Forecast PoPs generally decrease from south to north during the day as the better lift shifts north of NJ. Precip will likely become more showery in nature as well. Max temps will be noticeably warmer than today, especially S/E of PHL. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Tuesday night through Wednesday...A brief break in the weather may occur ahead of a cold front arriving on Wednesday. Guidance shows the front crossing the region during the afternoon/evening, and this timing will increase the potential for thunderstorm development. Southerly flow ahead of the front will increase moisture across the region and PWATs will start to rise near 2 inches, leading to efficient rainfall within any shower or storm that develops. Although it looks like Wednesday will be a fairly cloudy day, any breaks in the clouds will help increase surface instability and help in the development of thunderstorms. SPC has placed a good portion of our area in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms. Should the front arrive later, the convective potential will be less so it bears some watching. As the front pushes to the east Wednesday evening, showers and thunderstorms will decrease in coverage from west to east. While some lingering showers may remain into the overnight, we should start to see some drying out occur in the developing northwest flow. Thursday...The cold front pushes well south of our area, stalling closer to the Carolinas. High pressure will build across the northern Mid-Atlantic and into New England on Thursday. As the high slides across to our north, we should see the northwest flow turn more to the north or northeast Thursday. If the high can build a little further south, we may be able to squeeze out a dry day across the region. However, with easterly flow developing, we could see some scattered showers develop. Therefore, continue to mention a chance for some showers in the forecast. Friday through Monday...High pressure will start to build across the eastern US for Friday through the weekend. Expect skies to start clearing out with plenty of sunshine across our area. Overall, this weekend looks to be very nice for fall with temps remaining in the 70s during the day and dropping into the 50s to lower 60s overnight. A cold front may start to approach from the west late in the weekend but the models show varying solutions at this time. The front may hold off until the start of the new week, keeping us dry into Monday. && .AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. CIGs will continue to lower to MVFR, and eventually IFR overnight. Fog may develop overnight and persist for several hours after sunrise Tuesday. Conditions Tuesday morning may be slow to improve. Winds will continue out of the east tonight but will veer to the SE Tuesday morning and south in the afternoon. This veering trend will be slower to occur at ABE/RDG. OUTLOOK... Tuesday night...Mainly VFR conditions. Scattered showers with sub- VFR conditions possible. Southeast winds around 5 to 10 knots. Wednesday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. Conditions will deteriorate to MVFR/IFR in showers and thunderstorms as a cold front crosses the terminals. South to southwest winds around 10 knots will become northwest around 10 knots behind the front. Thursday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. Scattered showers with sub-VFR conditions possible. east or northeast winds around 10 knots or less. Friday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. Light winds. && .MARINE... SCA conditions will continue on Delaware Bay through tonight and on the ocean waters through Tuesday and beyond. Winds should diminish on Tuesday as the veer from east to southeast, however, seas will remain elevated on the ocean. Visibility will be limited in areas of rain and fog tonight, continuing into Tuesday morning. OUTLOOK... Tuesday night through Thursday...The Small Craft Advisory has been extended through Wednesday on the ocean waters of New Jersey and Delaware. Seas will be around 5 to 7 feet and should start to diminish some on Wednesday. However, seas will likely remain above 5 feet through Thursday and the Small Craft Advisory will likely need to be extended. Winds may gust around 25 knots at times on Thursday. Friday...Sub-SCA conditions are expected on the area waters. Rip Currents... There is a moderate risk for the development of dangerous rip currents at NJ and DE ocean beaches on Tuesday. Winds will shift from the east tonight to more of a southerly flow by afternoon. Tides will also be enhanced by the full moon. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the evening high tide cycle tonight for the ocean waters, back bays, and lower Delaware Bay, and has been extended to include the following high tide cycle. A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect for the tidal Delaware River, as well as upper Delaware Bay for the next two high tide cycles as well. The astronomical tides will be high due to the full Harvest Moon. The onshore flow is forecast to continue tonight before veering to the south on Tuesday, from south to north. && .CLIMATE... On Sunday, the Philadelphia International Airport (PHL) received 0.70 inches of rain, which brought the yearly precipitation total up to 41.58 inches. The normal rainfall for the entire calendar year at PHL is 41.53, which means we are already above normal for the year, with 99 days left to go. PHL joins the Atlantic City Airport (ACY), Mount Pocono (MPO), and Reading (RDG) as sites that have already reached their average annual precipitation. Both Wilmington (ILG) and Allentown (ABE) could reach their average annual precipitation this week, as those sites are within 1.08 and 0.90 inches respectively of that mark. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for PAZ070-071- 106. NJ...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for NJZ012>014- 020>027. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for NJZ016. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for NJZ015- 017>019. DE...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for DEZ002>004. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Tuesday for DEZ001. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ450>455. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ430-431. && $$ Synopsis...Davis Near Term...AMC/MPS Short Term...AMC Long Term...Meola Aviation...AMC/Meola/MPS Marine...AMC/Meola/MPS Tides/Coastal Flooding...MPS Climate...

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