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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KPHI 251508
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1108 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area slides offshore later today and
tonight. A cold front then approaches Sunday night and crosses
the area Monday and Monday night. High pressure returns on
Tuesday before moving offshore, and then a cold front approaches
late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
On water vapor this morning the formation of another closed
mid-level low appears imminent due to energy from the previous
low off the NJ coast pulling away. As the previous area of low
pressure becomes absorbed in the main flow and leaves behind PV,
this new closed low will meander south of Nova Scotia through
the near term. Over central Canada, another closed upper level
low was noted slowly heading east. Across the ArkLaTex, an area
of mid-level high pressure was analyzed with the ridge axis
beginning to extend northeast towards New England. This will
usher in much warmer temperatures today, with many locations
reaching 90 degrees. Daytime cumulus looks likely with the
mixing out of low-level moisture, and have added a slight
chance/isolated shower into the forecast over the Poconos where
terrain forcing is strongest today.

A sea breeze will move inland late this afternoon into early
evening with winds backing from the southwest to south. Expect
low temperatures tonight in the mid to upper 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
High pressure will be offshore on Sunday and will continue to
drift out to sea during the day. A cold front slowly approaches
during the day. A few showers and thunderstorms may make it into
far western zones late in the afternoon, but most of the
activity will hold off until Sunday night.

Cold front then slowly works its way across the region Sunday
night and Monday. Upper trough with strong shortwave energy then
approaches Monday afternoon and pushes that front through the
region Monday night. Showers and scattered thunderstorms will
affect the area mostly Sunday night through Monday, and then
activity tapers off from west to east Monday night.

A hot day is expected on Sunday with highs in the upper 80s to
low 90s, with cooler temperatures along the shores. With clouds
and showers over the area on Monday, highs will be in the 70s to
low 80s. Although surface dew points will be well in the 60s,
the temperatures will not be warm enough to support widespread
severe weather with those showers.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will be centered over the Ohio Valley and into
western New York and western Pennsylvania Tuesday morning before
gradually sliding overhead during the day, and then offshore by
Wednesday. This will be the start of a period of dry weather
with increasing temperatures as the week progresses. Generally
sunny skies on tap with temperatures a few degrees below normal
on Tuesday, and then temperatures warm up to normal levels on
Wednesday. For Thursday and Friday, temperatures will take a run
at the upper 80s and low 90s for most of the area. A cold front
approaches towards the end of the week, and this may touch off
scattered showers and thunderstorms late Friday and Friday
night.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR. Light southwest winds from 5 to 10 knots. A sea
breeze will move inland this afternoon into evening backing
winds from the south. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR with light southwest winds 5-10 knots. No
precipitation. Latest forecast soundings continue to show a ~5
to 8kft cloud deck forming overnight as a weak mid-level wave
approaches from the northwest. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Sunday through Sunday night...VFR during the day, then sub-VFR at
night in SHRA and scattered TSRA. S winds 5 to 10 kt. High
confidence.

Monday through Monday night...Sub-VFR conditions in SHRA and
scattered TSRA. S winds 10 to 15 kt, turning W in the afternoon,
then turning NW at night. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday through Tuesday night...VFR. N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming
LGT/VRB at night. High confidence.

Wednesday...VFR. SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Sea breezes possible
Wednesday afternoon, turning winds S to SE. High confidence.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Surface high pressure will remain centered southeast of NJ and
DE today. South to southwest winds of 5 to 10 kts this morning
will increase in speed from the south at 10 to 15 kts this
afternoon. Wind gusts of 20 to 25 kts with seas 3 to 5 ft.
Overall, conditions are forecast to remain below advisory
levels.

Outlook...

Sunday through Sunday night...Overall, sub-SCA conditions. S
winds 15 to 20 kt. Occasional gusts to 25 kt Sunday afternoon.
Seas 3 to 4 feet.

Monday through Monday night...Generally sub-SCA conditions. SW
winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming NW Monday night. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
VSBY restrictions in showers and scattered thunderstorms.

Tuesday through Tuesday night...Sub-SCA conditions. N winds 5
to 10 kt, becoming S Tuesday night. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

Wednesday through Wednesday night...Sub-SCA conditions. S winds
10 to 15 kt. Gusts to 20 kt during the day. Seas 2 to 4 feet.

Rip Currents...

A southwest wind 5 to 10 MPH this morning will become south
around 10 MPH this afternoon. Breaking waves will likely be
around 2 feet with a medium period easterly swell. There should
result in a MODERATE risk for the development of dangerous rip
currents for the NJ shore with a LOW risk for the Delaware
Beaches.

Similar conditions are forecast for Sunday so we are
forecasting the risk to remain MODERATE for New Jersey beaches
and LOW for Delaware.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...MPS
Near Term...Haines/RCM
Short Term...MPS/RCM
Long Term...MPS
Aviation...Haines/MPS/RCM
Marine...Haines/MPS