-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
273
FXUS61 KPHI 131937
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
237 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will slowly shift eastward into the area through
Saturday. Low pressure will approach the area Saturday night,
with a warm front passing through the area. A cold front will
move through on Sunday. A few reinforcing shots of cool air
arrive Sunday into Monday, with high pressure gradually building
back in through mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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After the exciting snow and graupel squall across the Poconos
and northern NJ earlier today, overall conditions are quieting
down. There may still be a few rain/snow showers/sprinkles/flurries
into early this evening, but overall precip intensity should be
notably lighter than the earlier activity, which was supported
by a potent upper trough shortwave and vort max moving through.

Upper troughs begins to very gradually move out of the region
tonight and Friday, but additional shortwaves with notable
vorticity maxima will continue crossing southeastward towards
us, so a few more stray rain/snow showers may persist into
Friday at times, supported by continued northwesterly surface
flow. However, most of the time will be dry, especially south of
I-78.

Clouds will diminish tonight as insolation ends, but will return
tomorrow after the sun rises and just enough instability builds
to get the stratocumulus growing again. Overall however, expect
it to be a little less cloudy on Friday as compared to today.
Also expect continued gusty northwest winds, diminishing tonight
after sunset but returning after sunrise on Friday, but with the
gradient diminishing a bit, winds should also be a bit lighter,
with gusts of 20-30 mph instead of 30-40 mph.

The clouds this evening and continued, if diminished wind overnight
will likely keep much radiational cooling from occuring, so temps
probably end up near freezing for much of the region, a bit warmer
urban centers and immediate coast, and upper 20s Poconos and NW
NJ. Highs on Friday should be fairly close, perhaps a touch lower,
than today, with low-mid 50s for most of the region, 40s Poconos
and NW NJ.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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For Friday night and Saturday morning, Fair weather continues with
high pressure still in control. Increasing clouds during Saturday
with the next system arriving from the NW for the afternoon. Seasonably
cold temps Friday night, but then near normal high temps for Saturday
as a southwest flow develops ahead of the approaching system. Highs
Sat will range from the upper 40s/low 50s N/W to the low 60s for
Delaware and south NJ.

After that, deep low pressure across southern Canada causes a
few surface fronts to approach from the west. Pooling moisture
and increasing warmth will cause showers to develop along the
front Saturday before it moves through overnight and into Sunday
morning. We`ll have chance and slight chance pops (20% - 30%)
for the west of I-95 areas Saturday afternoon and then higher
pops for Saturday night. Pops Sat night range from chance (40%
to 50%) for southern Delmarva, likely (60%-70%) for most other
areas south NJ and northern Delaware and categorical (80%-90%)
for the rest of the area. Pops drop off to slight chance by
Sunday morning before going dry by Sun afternoon.

Temperatures will be near normal Saturday but then go above
normal Sunday before the front moves thru. Highs Sunday will be
mid/upper 50s N/W and low mid 60s S/E.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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The mild weather from the weekend will be a memory once next week
begins as upper low pressure across Eastern Canada spins in place
Monday/Tue. During the midweek period, the low moves away allowing
upper heights to rise across the Middle Altantic region. These
features will bring below normal temps for much of the Mon-Thu
period and near normal reading after that. Normal temps for this
time of year range from highs in the mid/upper 50s S/E to upper
40s/low 50s N/W. Lows are typically in the low 30 for the northern
areas and close to 40 for Delmarva and SE NJ.

Not much in the way of precipitation expected next week. An
exception will be a weak and fast moving shortwave/weak surface low
which will move WNW to ESE along a front well to our south. There
have been changes with this feature between the 12Z and older 00Z
model runs. The GFS seems quicker and more across our area with the
precip, others more suppressed and slower. The rains seem to affect
only Delmarva, southeast PA and south NJ. We`ll continue with the
NBM pops which generally run in the 20% to 30% range.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Thru 0Z...VFR. W-NW winds 15 to 20 kt with to 30 kt gusts.
Winds start to diminish prior to 00Z. High confidence.

Tonight...VFR. W-NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in
the evening, then 5 to 10 kt. High confidence.

Friday...VFR. W-NW winds 5 to 10 kt in the morning, increasing
to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. High
confidence.

Outlook...

Friday night through Saturday...VFR. No significant weather.

Saturday night through Sunday morning...Periods of sub-VFR
conditions are possible both in periods of light rain and in low
ceilings. Gusty northwest winds (20-30 kt) are possible on
Sunday.

Sunday afternoon through Monday...VFR. No significant weather.

Tuesday... Primarily VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories in effect for all waters rest of this
afternoon. West to northwest winds will range from 15 to 20 kt
with 25 to 30 kt gusts with seas on the ocean generally 3 to 5
feet.

Winds on Delaware Bay will diminish to sub-SCA criteria this
evening, but strong winds will continue on the ocean waters.
Will keep SCA in effect until 6 pm for Delaware Bay and will
extend the SCA until 6 pm Friday for the ocean waters.

Outlook...

Friday night through Saturday...No marine headlines are
anticipated with winds below 25 kt and seas below 5 feet.

Saturday night through Monday...Marine headlines will likely be
needed for part or all of this time period. Southerly wind
Saturday night will transition to west-northwesterly on Sunday.
Winds 25-30 kt are possible. While not likely at this time, a
period of gales cannot be entirely ruled out. Seas increase to
4-7 feet.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ430-
     431.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Friday for ANZ450>454.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Cooper/RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...OHara
LONG TERM...OHara
AVIATION...Cooper/OHara/RCM
MARINE...Cooper/OHara/RCM