Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000 FXUS61 KPHI 240735 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 335 AM EDT Fri May 24 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure across the Great Lakes region will build across the Middle Atlantic later today and remain across the region through saturday. Low pressure will move north of the area Sunday and Monday causing a front to move across the region. More high pressure will return for later Monday and into Tuesday. A disturbance will arrive for the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Much quieter day in store for the area as surface high pressure builds NW of the area over the Great Lakes while at mid lvls heights rise as the SE ridge tries to build northward in the wake of the earlier shortwave. Given good mixing and modest pressure rises, will likely see breezy northwest winds through most of the daytime hours (gusts generally in the 20-30 mph range). There will be a considerably drier airmass in place with cloud cover limited to patchy cirrus and some stratocumulus (most notable over northern portions of the area). Given a well-mixed atmosphere, a good amount of sun, and offshore flow highs will generally run in the mid 70s to low 80s (probably a bit cooler in the far north where there may be more cloud cover). && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... The high will move overhead this evening and then offshore overnight, which will cause the northwesterly winds to decrease in speed and veer to a more easterly direction. Models indicate a weak shortwave diving around the eastern side of the ridge overnight in the vicinity of Delmarva, but am not expecting anything other than maybe an increase in mid-clouds from this feature. Other than that overnight mins should cool to near climo , given onshore flow, lighter winds, and a drier airmass. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The overall synoptic setup will continue with an upper high pressure across the south and a rather deep trough over the western part of the country. A low across Canada will guide low pressure systems and fronts across the Great Lakes and Middle Atlantic this weekend and into the middle of next week. This means showery conditions with some tstms possible. The most favored times for the rains are Sat night thru Sun night and again Wed/Thu next week. Since the pattern is more showery, some locally heavy rains are possible, but the rains will be scattered and intermittent. Temperatures will be near normal Saturday, but then turn much more summer-like Sunday when mercury readings will approach 90 in many areas, save the Southern Poconos and the shore. The above normal readings will carry into next week, although highs Mon/Tue will be more like low/mid 80s. Highs will then go back into the low 90s Wed and perhaps again Thu. Humidity levels will be somewhat uncomfortable Sunday and then again towards the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Friday...VFR conditions are expected at all terminals. NW winds sustained around 15 kts with gusts up to around 25 knots are expected through mid-afternoon. Friday night... VFR conditions are expected with winds decreasing in speed to around 5-10 kts, and veering from Northerly to Easterly and then eventually Southeasterly by Saturday morning. Outlook... Sat...Mostly VFR. Sat night thru Sun night...VFR much of the time, but a few showers and tstms with lower conditions possible. Mon thru Tue...Mostly VFR. && .MARINE... A small craft advisory remains in place for the Atlantic coastal waters through 7 AM this morning. Seas will come down to 2-3 feet this afternoon with northwesterly flow prevailing. Winds will likely gust to 20-25kts at times this afternoon. Sub-SCA conditions are expected Friday night. Outlook... Winds and seas will likely remain below SCA conditions for the weekend and into early next week. Mostly fair weather is expected, but a few tstms will be across the waters Sat night and again Sunday night. Locally higher winds and seas are possible with any tstm. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ450>455. && $$ Synopsis...O`Hara Near Term...Carr Short Term...Carr Long Term...O`Hara Aviation...Carr/O`Hara Marine...Carr/O`Hara

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