Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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464 FXUS61 KPHI 220607 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 207 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will strengthen as it moves northeast through the mid- Atlantic region tonight and into New England on Friday. Behind the low, a cold front will cross our region on Friday. Over the weekend, the low will move farther away into the Canadian Maritimes, while high pressure will build in from the Great Lakes on Saturday and then shift to our south on Sunday. A cold front is forecast to cross the area on Monday, followed by high pressure for much of the remainder of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... The center of low pressure is currently over Delaware Bay/extreme southern NJ and will continue to lift to the northeast through daybreak Friday. The heaviest of the rain seems to be winding down, but with all the rain that fell across the region, it will not take much additional rainfall to result in street and small stream flooding. Will keep Flood Watch up through the late night hours. Some snow is possible across the highest elevations of the southern Poconos late. There may be some locally dense fog across southern NJ as the low passes overhead. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... The low will continue to deepen through Friday as it moves NE through New England. Main concern for Friday and beyond will be strong winds on the backside of the system due to the strong pressure gradient, deep mixing, and cold advection pattern. Friday morning may end up mainly dry before a strong shortwave associated with the main upper level low drops S/E into the area. This will result in scattered showers redeveloping that could continue to be mixed with some snow across higher elevations in the southern Poconos. Otherwise main focus will be on the winds. Winds will ramp up through the day and expect by mid to late afternoon W/NW winds will be 15 to 25 with gusts of at least 30 to 40 mph. Winds will likely be even stronger for a time Friday night. Highs Friday will range from the upper 30s to mid 40s over the southern Poconos and NW NJ to the upper 40s to low 50s elsewhere. Friday night...secondary cold front crosses the area early in the evening potentially resulting in a surge of stronger wind gusts. Profiles indicate 40 to 50 knot winds in the boundary layer but limiting factor for full mixing will be loss of heating with the diurnal cycle. Nevertheless, still think there will be a good potential for wind gusts at least 35 to 45 mph to be realized across much of the area so Wind Advisory may end up be needed. Otherwise, except for some scattered snow showers continuing in the southern Poconos conditions should become mainly dry. Lows by Saturday morning will range from the 20s across the southern Poconos and NW NJ to the low to mid 30s elsewhere. For Saturday, the low pulls away into the Canadian Maritimes with strong NW winds continuing in its wake as high pressure moves into the Ohio Valley keeping a tight gradient over the area. Otherwise it will be dry but seasonably cool under mainly sunny skies. High pressure moves in for Saturday night and Sunday resulting in winds finally diminishing with temperatures returning to seasonable by Sunday afternoon under continuing mainly clear skies. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... This extended forecast period will start out with a fairly strong cold front passage on Monday, followed by Canadian high pressure for Tuesday through Thursday. On Monday a shortwv trof is forecast to move east into the Ohio valley with moisture spreading ahead of it across the mid-Atlantic region. Both the latest GFS and ECMWF are showing precip spreading across the area on Monday and continuing into Monday night in association with this feature and with the frontal passage. Temperatures ahead of the front on Monday should be warm enough for rain everywhere, but fairly strong cold advection behind the front may result in precip changing to snow from north to south Monday night. No significant snow accumulation is expected at this time. Temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday look to be a bit below normal, but may moderate to near normal again by Thursday. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Through tonight...Low pressure will intensify as it moves northeast through coastal DE and NJ tonight. Cigs will generally range between low MVFR and IFR. Vsbys will lower in areas of heavier rainfall. Precip should end from south to north during the early overnight, but cigs will remain mostly IFR overnight. Winds will veer from ENE to NW with the passage of the low Friday...Conditions should improve to VFR by mid-morning but NW winds will likely gust 25 to 30 kt during day. Brief local MVFR conditions are possible in scattered showers. OUTLOOK... Friday night and Saturday...VFR conditions expected but NW winds will continue to gust 30 to 35 kt. Saturday night through Sunday night...VFR conditions with winds generally 10 kt or less. Monday and Monday night...MVFR countdowns possible in areas of rain or snow showers. Winds around 10 kt shifting from SW to N on Monday. Tuesday...VFR conditions with NE winds around 10 kt. && .MARINE... A Gale Warning remains in effect for all waters, though there is a lull in the gales that should last into daybreak, then northwest winds will crank up once again to above gale force through Friday. Outlook... Friday night and Saturday...Northwesterly gales continue for much of this period, but wind speeds should gradually drop off late Saturday into Saturday night. Sunday into Monday...winds and seas are expected to be below Small Craft Advisory conditions. Monday night and Tuesday...Northeasterly winds are likely to increase starting Monday night and continuing into Tuesday. Seas should subsequently increase as well. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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High tide along the Atlantic Ocean, Delaware Bay, and tidal Delaware River below the Commodore Barry Bridge area has passed and waters will continue to recede. Therefore we cancelled the Coastal Flood Warning and Advisory along the New Jersey and Delaware ocean front, as well as the lower Delaware Bay coasts. The Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the tidal Delaware River above the Commodore Barry Bridge area into the early morning hours. Guidance continues to indicate minor tidal flooding for the morning high tide later this morning between 9 and 10 AM for Middlesex, Monmouth, and Ocean counties. The low will continue to slowly move away from the area through the morning hours, but before it moves completely out of the area, easterly winds will likely continue to push water into the northern New Jersey coastal line. Therefore we have issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for the next high tide for these counties. Strong offshore flow will develop through the day Friday, which will end the coastal flooding threat for subsequent high tides. No flooding is expected on the upper eastern shore of Chesapeake Bay.
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&& .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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PA...Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT early this morning for PAZ060>062- 070-071-101>106. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for PAZ070-071-106. NJ...Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT early this morning for NJZ007>010- 012-015>019. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NJZ012>014-020-026. Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for NJZ015-017>019. DE...Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT early this morning for DEZ001. MD...Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT early this morning for MDZ008-012. MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ430-431-450>455.
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&& $$ Synopsis...AMC Near Term...Fitzsimmons/Johnson/MPS Short Term...Fitzsimmons Long Term...AMC Aviation...AMC/MPS Marine...AMC/Johnson/MPS Tides/Coastal Flooding...

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