Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 250950
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
250 AM MST Tue Feb 25 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Very cold air will continue to move in on brisk north winds today.
High temperatures today will be 15 to 25 degrees below average for
late February. Widespread single digit and teens for lows are
forecast Wednesday morning. High temperatures warm somewhat Wednesday
but remain well below late February averages. The warming continues
Thursday into the first half of the weekend with above average highs
forecast for Friday and Saturday. Temperatures remain above average
on Sunday but clouds and breezes will likely increase ahead of the
next storm system forecast to bring a return of rain and snow chances
early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A jet max diving south from over the Great Basin down the back side
of an upper level low, currently over far western KS/NE, will deliver
a round of snow showers to the Sangres, eastern highlands into
portions of the east central plains today. Snow amounts will range
from one quarter to one inch and may briefly impact Interstate 40
between Clines Corners and Santa Rosa, as well as Interstate 25 near
Las Vegas. Strong winds will develop on the backside of the low
across northeast and east central NM later today as well, with areas
of blowing snow likely near the CO border and through Raton Pass.
Will issue an Wind Advisory for much of northeast NM, which will run
from late morning through early evening. The airmass filling-in today
will be very cold, with high temperatures forecast to be 15-20
degrees below normal. Winds will decouple late this evening and
combine with clear skies and a very cold airmass to deliver well
below normal temperatures with some of the coldest temperatures since
the Feb 5/6 event. Dry northwest flow will prevail Wednesday with
plenty of sunshine allowing for some warming, though high
temperatures will still be 5-15 degrees below normal.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
Tranquil weather underneath dry northwest flow aloft will be the rule
Wednesday night through Friday. A backdoor cold front will bring
cooler temperatures to far northeast NM Thursday otherwise dry
conditions with near average temperatures are forecast elsewhere.
Temperatures rise to above average values for all areas Friday and
Saturday as a ridge aloft moves overhead. Models agree that zonal
flow aloft transitions over the southwest U.S. Saturday, resulting in
westerly breezes for much of the state. The downsloping effects
caused by the west winds will result in additional warming for the
RGV and much of eastern NM Saturday afternoon. By Sunday, models
agree that southwest flow aloft will result in increasing clouds and
a slight chance for light showers across the north mountains. The
closed upper-level low forecast to be over southern CA responsible
for the southwesterly flow aloft remains on track to bring chances
of showers and mountain snow showers to western and northern NM early
next week. GFS and ECMWF continue to disagree a bit on the timing and
exact placement of the low center but agree on the overall pattern.
GFS is slower and farther north with the low center than the ECWMF
but sensible weather result is similar with precipitation chances on
the uptrend early next week.

11/33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A very cold and dry airmass will fill into the area today behind the
cold front, with breezy to windy conditions and excellent ventilation.
Vent rates will take a dip Wednesday as winds relax and dry northwest
flow prevails. A warming trend is forecast from mid to late week,
with daytime temperatures rising above normal areawide by Friday.
Winds and vent rates will trend up over the weekend as a potent upper
level trough/low approaches from the northwest. The pattern will
likely be active next week with the potential for two closed upper
lows to impact the region.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Breezy to windy conditions will be a common aviation weather hazard
over the next 24 hours, including some northerly gusts through the
early morning as a stout cold front slides through the remainder of
the plains. A second cold front will then surge into New Mexico from
the north again on Tuesday, with gusty north or northwest winds
accompanying. The front could also produce light showers along the
Sangre de Cristo mountains and central highlands Tuesday where
localized visibility and ceiling reductions will be possible near
K0E0, KCQC, KSXU, and KLVS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  41  10  43  16 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  36   6  40   8 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  36   9  40  14 /   5   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  37   3  46  13 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  35   4  44  11 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  37   5  45  12 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  38  11  46  15 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  36  10  44  15 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  48  22  51  24 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  32  -3  34   7 /  10   5   0   0
Los Alamos......................  35  15  39  22 /  10   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  34  11  39  19 /  20  10   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  32   2  38   8 /  10   0   0   0
Red River.......................  23  -5  31   9 /  20   5   0   0
Angel Fire......................  25 -11  32  -4 /  30  20   0   0
Taos............................  34   3  39   9 /   5   0   0   0
Mora............................  31   6  41  16 /  20  10   0   0
Espanola........................  39  12  43  20 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  36  13  40  21 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  39  11  42  19 /   5   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  41  22  44  24 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  42  21  46  25 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  44  17  48  21 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  42  22  46  24 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  45  15  47  19 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  41  21  46  25 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  48  19  49  25 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  35  16  40  19 /   5   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  36  14  41  17 /   5   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  37   7  42  13 /  10   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  32   8  39  17 /  40  10   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  37  13  41  21 /  10   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  40  17  42  26 /  10   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  33  12  37  23 /  20   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  30   8  40  14 /  30  20   0   0
Raton...........................  35   6  42  17 /  10  10   0   0
Springer........................  36   7  43  16 /  10  10   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  33   4  41  16 /  30  10   0   0
Clayton.........................  34  13  44  22 /  30  10   0   0
Roy.............................  36  11  42  17 /  10   5   0   0
Conchas.........................  41  14  49  20 /  20   5   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  42  15  48  25 /  30  10   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  44  16  49  25 /   5   5   0   0
Clovis..........................  41  17  45  24 /  10  10   0   0
Portales........................  42  18  46  24 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  42  17  49  22 /  20  10   0   0
Roswell.........................  45  21  49  23 /  20  10   0   0
Picacho.........................  42  17  47  25 /  20  10   0   0
Elk.............................  41  13  45  20 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MST this evening for
the following zones... NMZ227-228-230-231-234.

&&

$$


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