Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 181146 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
546 AM MDT Fri Oct 18 2019

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
An upper level trough crossing New Mexico will cause breezy to windy
conditions to develop today. The associated mainly dry cold front is
forecast to move from northwest to southeast across NM today. The
highest gusts are forecast to be 35kts at KLVS and KTCC with gusts
between 25 and 30kts elsewhere. Winds will subside this evening with
dry and chilly weather later tonight. VFR conditions should prevail
through the next 24 hours aside from a brief mt obscuration in a rain
or snow shower this afternoon and evening. Winds will be noticeably
lower Saturday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...255 AM MDT Fri Oct 18 2019...
.SYNOPSIS...
No fewer than three cold fronts are expected over the next week. The
first will arrive today and a stronger front will arrive on Sunday.
Both of these days will also feature strong winds. Gusts between
30 and 45 mph will be possible today, while gusts up to 50 or 55 mph
will be possible on Sunday. The strongest winds will be along and
east of the central mountain chain each day. The last in the series
of cold front will arrive on Thursday. Thus, expect temperatures to
yo-yo up and down this week. Precipitation chances will be slim, but
best chances will be today across the northern mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The shortwave trough to the west remains poised to cross NM today.
Strong mixing, up to near 600 mb, combined with the base of the
trough and thereby jet moving overhead, should yield breezy to windy
conditions across much of the state today. The strongest winds are
expected near and along I-40 in eastern NM where a Wind Advisory will
be issued. The associated Pacific front will push through the state
this afternoon and evening, which will keep temps several degrees
below yesterdays readings across the northwest half of the area. A
few showers, and perhaps a stray thunderstorm, will remain possible
across the northern mountains. Drier air filtering in behind the
front tonight, combined with weakening winds speeds will yield a
much cooler night. The back door segment of the front will also push
through the plains overnight.

Less wind and seasonable temperatures are expected for Saturday,
though a few breezes will still be felt across the north and
northeast.

A stronger storm system will cross north of the state on Sunday. With
the jet again moving over NM, expect another round of strong winds,
likely stronger than today despite the surface low being much farther
away from NM on Sunday. Though strong winds are expected both ahead
of and behind the cold front on Sunday, the strongest gusts will
likely accompany the front Sunday afternoon. The front looks to enter
NW NM by 9am Sunday and quickly push toward the central mountain
chain. Given it`s early in the day arrival, lowered high temperatures
several degrees.

Dewpoints will crater behind the cold front Sunday night, and
excellent radiational cooling will make for a chilly Monday morning.
High temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal on Monday, but
a gradual warmup is in store through Wednesday. Then it looks like
another strong cold front will arrive around the Thursday timeframe.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather conditions possible Sunday across all the east.

Upper level trough and surface cold front will cross NM today. This
will result in breezy to windy conditions and cooler temperatures.
Showers of rain and snow and some thunder will be confined to the
northern mountains. The cooler temperatures, poor Haines values and
humidities above 15 percent will prevent any critical fire weather
conditions today. A cold front will move southward through the east
tonight.

The weekend will be mostly dry. Winds will be lower Saturday but
much stronger Sunday. Temperatures will be lower in the east and
warmer in the west Saturday, then the opposite on Sunday as a cold
front and upper trough sweep across the state. The combination of
low humidities and strong winds could result in several hours of
critical fire weather conditions across the four eastern zones
Sunday afternoon.

Dry northwest flow early next week with milder temperatures. A
deepening trough will impact NM later next week bringing colder
temperatures, higher humidities and better chances of rain and
higher elevation snow.

CHJ

&&

$$


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