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000
FXUS64 KAMA 111155
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
555 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019

.AVIATION...
12z TAF Issuance...Low clouds and areas of fog are moving into the
southwest Texas Panhandle and advecting east with the chance of
reaching KAMA between 13-15z. A TEMPO group covers a deck of low
overcast clouds at 400 feet with 4 mile visibility. After 15z,
these low clouds will clear out with VFR conditions expected at
all three sites on through the period. Breezy south winds of 15 to
20 knots at all three sites through 12z tomorrow. High clouds will
filter in overnight tonight at all three TAF sites.

Rutt

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 344 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019/

SHORT TERM...Today and Tonight...
Satellite analysis shows low clouds and fog in eastern New Mexico
slowly creeping north and expanding east. The far southwest Texas
Panhandle may see some low visibilities and areas of fog during
the morning hours before quickly dissipating by 9AM to 10AM. A
surface trough will bring gusty southerly winds to the Panhandles
today with temperatures warming into the mid 50s. Wind speeds
will be around 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph possible
through midnight tonight before slowly diminishing by Thursday
morning. A cloud deck will move west to east overnight and keep
low temperatures warmer than the past few nights in the 30s before
clearing by the morning.

Rutt

LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday...
Shortwave trof quickly crosses Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles
during the morning, with dry northwest flow aloft resuming.  Flow
briefly returns to zonal Saturday evening, with strengthening
southwest flow aloft Sunday and Sunday night, owing to the
approach of the next shortwave trof.  Pacific moisture will
increase ahead of the trof, with chances for precipitation
beginning Saturday evening and continuing through Monday morning.
The northern half of the Combined Panhandles will have the better
chances for precipitation due to the proximity of 250 mb jet
streak which all models predict will be well above 100 kt.

Light snow is expected Saturday night and Sunday morning, mainly
across northern sections.  Sunday afternoon may warm to the point
where light rain will be possible.  Light snow is then expected
to be the precipitation type Sunday evening through Monday
morning.  Preliminary totals of one to three inches of snow are
forecast for the Oklahoma Panhandle and the northern half of the
Texas Panhandle, with less than one inch across the southern half
of the Texas Panhandle.

Otherwise, mild weather is expected Thursday and especially
Friday, with high temperatures in the mid- to upper-50s Thursday,
and in the lower- to mid-60s Friday, thanks to insolation, lower
pressures and warmer 850 mb temperatures.  Saturday will be
cooler, following an initial cold front Friday night.

Models and ensembles disagree with surface winds Saturday through
Sunday night.  Have opted for a solution similar to ECMWF and
GEFS means, with more of an easterly component prevailing due to
high pressure building into northeast sections while a surface
wave persists through eastern New Mexico.  This upslope flow will
assist with precipitation production.  Cloudy and cooler on
Sunday as cold air deepens.  Colder still on Monday with highs
below 40 over most of the area.  Clearing begins Monday afternoon
as upper system pulls away.  Highs in the 40s expected on
Tuesday.

Cockrell

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

23/3