Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 180327

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
827 PM MST Thu Oct 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Expect continued afternoon breezes with temperatures
cooling to near average this weekend. Dry conditions will persist
into next week with warmer temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Another dry cold front is possible next Thursday.


.UPDATE...Satellite imagery indicates clear skies across most of
northern Arizona with just a few low to mid level clouds forming
along the southwest (up-slope) side of the higher terrain
southwest of a line from the White Mountains to the Kaibab
Plateau. These clouds are from adiabatic cooling of moist air
being pushed by the southwest winds from the lower valley where
dew points are in the low to mid 40`s up onto the higher ground in
this region. They may last through much of the night, but will
begin to dissipate as the up-slope winds die down towards morning.
Added some patchy smoke to the forecast through this evening from
several prescribed burn areas, mostly along the Mogollon Rim and
in the White Mountains. The remainder of the forecast is on track
with no adjustments needed.


.PREV DISCUSSION /153 PM MST/...Very few changes were made to the
previous forecast.

An approaching trough and associated cold front is pushing toward
the region this afternoon. This has led to increased
southwesterly flow across northern Arizona, with wind gusts in the
30-40 mph range. Winds will decrease in many areas after sunset
this evening. However, expect breezy conditions to continue along
and northeast of the higher terrain overnight.

The trough will cross the region on Friday morning, with dry
westerly flow developing behind it. This system has very little
moisture to work with and we are not expecting any measurable
precipitation. Winds will remain breezy Friday afternoon, with
cooler daytime temperatures.

Relatively quiet weather continues into the weekend and early next
week. Another trough will brush the state on Sunday, but dry
conditions look to persist. The one notable impact from this
trough will be a shift to northerly winds later Sunday into early
next week. Warmer weather looks like a good bet Tuesday into
Wednesday as high pressure noses into the state, but another dry
cold front may bring a cool down as early as Thursday.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...VFR conditions will continue
for the next 24 hours. Surface winds S-SW 5-15 kts through Friday
morning becoming W-NW 10-20 kts in the afternoon. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Friday will see a decrease in temperatures and
breezy west to northwest winds as a dry cold front moves through the
area. Winds will shift back to a west to southwest direction on
Saturday and remain breezy. Dry conditions will persist.

Sunday through Tuesday...Near normal temperatures on Sunday and
Monday will warm to around 5 degrees above normal on Tuesday. Breezy
west to northwest winds on Sunday will shift northerly for the
beginning of the work week.






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