Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 041215
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
515 AM MST Thu Jun 4 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Expect warm conditions Thursday before high
temperatures drop to near normal heading into the weekend. Expect
gusty afternoon winds Friday, along with chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Saturday through Monday will see drying conditions
with strong winds likely Sunday afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...One more hot day before the start of a cooling trend
tomorrow that will last into early next week. Current satellite
WV imagery shows dry air pushing into the area from the southwest.
This has already increased the radiative cooling this morning
dropping temperatures in the high basins. The sun will also be
intense across the high country today due to the dry air aloft.
You`ll want to use sunscreen if you plan to be outside mid day
today.

The cutoff low off of Baja has started to shift northeast and will
make landfall Friday morning. There is disagreement on the track
of the low with the European model and most of the blended model
guidance tracks the low over northern Arizona pushing the plume of
moisture mostly east of Flagstaff while the GFS and GEFS Ensemble
models track the low farther northwest of the region which would
shift the moisture plume westward spreading the precipitation into
Coconino and Yavapai counties. The current forecast leans more to
the blended guidance, but will reassess today with the 12Z runs.
With that said, expect isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms beginning mostly east of Flagstaff Friday afternoon.
Storm coverage will increase Friday evening, lasting through the
night into Saturday with the heaviest precipitation northeast of a
line from Colorado City to St Johns. Forecasted inverted-V
soundings indicate these storms will likely produce strong outflow
winds in excess of 50 mph. The Four Corners area could see 0.25
to 0.50 inches from this system. Strong gradient winds with this
system may create dangerous fire conditions Friday along the
borders of Coconino and Yavapai Counties with Mohave County. A
Fire Weather Watch has been issued for this area.

Behind this system, dry air returns to the region with a
generally westerly flow aloft. A longwave trough over the Western
US will cool temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below normal by Monday
before a warming trend through next week. A shortwave passing to
the north of the region Sunday will give us strong gradient winds
again across much of northern Arizona, likely creating more
dangerous fire weather conditions. Winds will decrease as we go
into the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Look for VFR conditions over the
next 24 hours. Expect light surface winds overnight becoming SW10G15-
20 kt Thursday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... Hot temperatures will continue today along with
dry conditions. On Friday, a passing weather disturbance will
produce windy conditions along with a chance for showers and
thunderstorms. Critical fire weather conditions will be possible for
western Yavapai and Coconino counties.

Saturday through Monday..Expect windy conditions each afternoon
along with dry weather and cooler daytime temperatures. Critical
fire weather conditions possible through the period.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Excessive Heat Warning until
8 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ037.

Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
FOR AZZ104-106>108.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION...KD
FIRE WEATHER...KD


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff


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