Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 122101

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
401 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 154 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020/

/Through Thursday/

The summer doldrums are upon us as an upper ridge continues to be
the main driver of our sensible weather. As of the 1 o`clock
hour, many locations across North and Central Texas were in the
mid to upper 90s with heat index values approaching 100-105
degrees or greater. The proximity of earlier convection and
residual cloud cover will keep northeast zones cooler than the
rest of the CWA with highs topping out in the mid 90s this
afternoon. Elsewhere, oppressively hot conditions are expected
with highs ranging from the upper 90s to 105 degrees.

As a shortwave to our northeast moves off to the east/southeast
this afternoon, a few additional showers and thunderstorms will
be possible along and east of a Sherman to Palestine line. Though
shear profiles are insufficient for organized convection, gusty
winds will be a threat due to the hot afternoon temperatures.
Brief heavy rain and frequent lightning will also be possible.

Compressional warming will allow temperatures to climb a couple
degrees higher on Thursday with widespread heat index values
near 108 degrees likely. Ambient temperatures are expected to
reach or exceed 105 degrees across a few of our northwest zones.
Therefore, a small Excessive Heat Warning will be in effect
beginning tomorrow afternoon. Otherwise, the Heat Advisory will
remain in effect through the short term period. Fire weather will
continue to be a concern for areas west of I-35 as mixing allows
relative humidities to fall to 20-25% with afternoon temperatures
near 100-106 degrees.




/Friday through Next Week/

The primary concern with the long term forecast period will be the
hot conditions across most of the region. In addition to the risk
for hot conditions, there will be a continued elevated fire
weather threat, especially for locations west of I-35.

The hottest conditions of the year are most probable over the next
several days as a mid-level ridge remains anchored over portions
of central New Mexico. The anticyclonic flow aloft will facilitate
some cyclogenesis across southwest Oklahoma on Friday. With the
veered flow, it`s quite probable that we`ll see temperatures climb
into the 100 to 107 degree range. The most dangerous heat will be
across the Big Country and we went ahead and issued an Excessive
Heat Warning for a handful of counties west of the US HWY 281
corridor where the chances for dangerous heat are greatest. It
should be noted that guidance has trended toward greater afternoon
high temperatures on Thursday and Friday and it`s quite possible
that an areal extension of the Excessive Heat Warning may needed.
Otherwise, heat index values of greater than 105 degrees can be
expected through the end of the week and as a result, I went ahead
and extended the Heat Advisory through 00Z Saturday for the
remainder of the area (outside of Lampasas and Mills counties).

Saturday promises to be another hot day across the area as veered
low level flow is expected to envelop most of our region. Some of
the latest guidance indicates that high based convection could
develop across southwest Oklahoma into adjacent portions of
western North Texas. The NAM`s vorticity fields seem to hint at
the potential for a Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) that could
spiral southward through the Big Country Saturday. Given that I
anticipate a pretty hostile environment for convection, I`m going
to keep the forecast for Saturday rain/storm-free with just
silent 10 PoPs and a slight increase in cloud cover.

Sunday will remain hot, though a slight windshift to the north
may shave a degree or two off of daytime high temperatures. Late
Sunday into early next week, it does appear that some more
noticeable relief from the heat will arrive in the way of a cold
front. PoPs still remain low at this time, with values in the 20
to 30 percent range. Highs may only climb into the upper 80s to
mid 90s...certainly a lot cooler than the weekend.




The fire weather threat will remain elevated Thursday through
Sunday as afternoon humidity plummets into the 20s and 30s. High
temperatures soaring into the 100-107 degree range coupled with
cured fuels will result in a continued risk for rapidly spreading
grass fires. 20 ft winds are still expected to remain below 15
MPH and we`ll continue to highlight the risk for grass fires with
a Grassland Fire Danger statement.



.AVIATION... /Issued 154 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2020/

/18Z TAFs/

Isolated showers and storms will be possible through the early
evening hours and may impact Bonham/Cedar Creek arrivals.
Additionally, an area of virga and/or very light rain may impact
Bowie arrivals as it makes its way to the southeast. These
showers and storms aren`t expected to impact any terminals and
should come to an end by the evening hours.

Otherwise, southerly winds near 10 knots or less are expected.
Winds may become more southwesterly or southeasterly at times,
but these periods should be short-lived. Additionally, a brief
period of stronger winds will be possible at ACT during the
overnight period. However, this was excluded from the TAF for
simplicity`s sake. Otherwise, VFR is expected through the end of
the valid TAF period.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    81 103  82 104  83 /   0   0   0   0   5
Waco                79 103  79 104  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               75  98  77  97  75 /   5   0   0   5  10
Denton              79 104  80 103  80 /   0   0   0   0   5
McKinney            79 103  80 102  80 /   0   0   0   0   5
Dallas              82 104  83 104  84 /   0   0   0   0   5
Terrell             78 102  79 102  80 /   5   0   0   0   5
Corsicana           78 101  79 103  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              77 103  77 103  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       77 104  78 106  79 /   0   0   0   0  10


Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ091>095-102>107-

Excessive Heat Warning from 1 PM Thursday to 7 PM CDT Friday for

Heat Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ100-101-115-116.



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