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000
FXUS64 KJAN 300531
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1231 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020

.UPDATE...
Updated for 06Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF discussion:
Not much of a change in the immediate term. VFR through at least
the next 12 hrs. Light and variable winds for the rest of the
night under the ridge, with plenty of cirrus moving in overhead
keeping the skies bkn/ovc. Next concern for avn is the development
of showers/possible thunderstorms tomorrow night. Models still
somewhat erratic in timing.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Conditions are quiet throughout the ArkLaMiss tonight as some mid
level clouds stream overhead. The radar shows some precip returns,
but this is just virga. The 00Z sounding indicates a very dry
lower atmosphere below 700 mb for which this precip must first
fall. Therefore, it`s evaporating before it reaches the ground.
Going into Monday morning, the atmosphere will continue to
increase in moisture as the surface high pressure moves off to the
east. Overall, the short term forecast looks good with lows in
the mid to upper 50s expected and no measurable precip. /10/

Prior discussion below:

Tonight and Monday...The surface high pressure center will build
into and east of the CWA tonight into Monday.  Surface flow as a
result will become northeasterly overnight, and eventually easterly
Monday afternoon.  This will maintain a drier airmass over the CWA
during the period, as dew points again range from the middle 40s to
middle 50s through the period.  Meanwhile, south and west southwest
flow in the low and mid-levels of the atmosphere will result in
increasing moisture aloft beginning tonight and continuing into
Monday.  This will result in increasing mid and high clouds across
the region.  As far as temperatures are concerned, lows tonight will
fall into the mid 50s to around 60, and highs Monday will range from
the upper 60s to around 80.

Currently, much of the forecast period will remain dry. However late
in the period, a strengthening trough digging east southeast across
the southern plains states, will cause a surface low to begin
developing across Northwest Texas.  At the same time, a warm front
will begin lifting north into at least far southern portions of the
CWA come late Monday afternoon.  As weak perturbations embedded in
west southwest flow aloft begin traversing across the region north
of the boundary, rain chances will begin increasing across mainly
western portions of the forecast area. /19/

As we go into Monday night, strong moisture transport should
bring fairly widespread showers along/north of the warm front with
the best low level theta-e advection and frontogenesis still
expected to focus over the northern ArkLaMiss Delta and into north
central MS. Some threat for heavy rainfall could evolve in this
area given a airmass characterized by high precipitable water >
1.5 inches and high precip efficiency, but with very limited
instability, we don`t expect much in the way of heavier convective
rainfall rates that would support flash flooding.

In terms of severe weather, we continue to have a slight/marginal
risk for mainly southern/central portions of the area for Monday
night into early Tuesday morning. The threat remains somewhat
conditional given the questionable quality of the low level
airmass and disjointed setup with greater ascent displaced to the
north of the suppressed, richer boundary layer moisture to the
south. Having said that, there will be very strong deep layer wind
shear that could support an increasing severe threat if BL
moisture quality and frontal ascent match up more favorably than
forecast.

In the wake of the early week storm system, expect dry weather to
persist from Tuesday night through Thursday as high pressure
returns. Temperatures should be slightly below climatological
normal for a change with highs Wednesday struggling to reach 70
while lows dip well into the 40s for much of the area. Going into
next weekend, rain chances will be on the increase as high
pressure gradually shifts east, but the threat for very impactful
weather still remains quite low. /EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       55  77  60  75 /   9  17  88  56
Meridian      55  78  60  77 /   4  11  72  84
Vicksburg     56  75  62  74 /  10  32  93  32
Hattiesburg   59  81  64  82 /   1  11  56  71
Natchez       58  76  64  77 /   7  31  91  36
Greenville    54  70  56  64 /  11  36  98  40
Greenwood     54  73  56  67 /   9  21  97  60

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$

HJS