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227
FXUS64 KJAN 220204
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
904 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

.UPDATE...
Updated for evening discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Clouds will be decreasing overnight as a cold front moves through
the region, and drier air begins to filter in. Lows tonight will
range from the mid 40s to low 50s. No major changes were needed to
the forecast. /27/

Prior discussion below:

Tonight and tomorrow...Cold front extends generally along the
MS/AR boarder down into Northeast Louisiana this afternoon.
Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are occuring out ahead
of it, while dry air and clearing skies are occuring behind. The
risk for any severe thunderstorms have shifted well to the east of
the area. As the front continues to move east across the area
this afternoon into the evening hours, skies will slowly clear
from west to east, with the showers ending in the east by mid/late
evening. Skies will become clear overnight and with cold air
advection, temperatures will fall into the mid 40s to low 50s by
Tuesday morning.

Strong high pressure will build over the region on Tuesday with a
nice day on Tap. Expect clear skies with highs ranging from the
upper 60s in the north to low 70s in the south. /15/

Tomorrow night through Monday...

The forecast period starts off tomorrow night with mean longwave
troughing from the Central Plains into the Mid-Atlantic with zonal
flow in the base of the trough across the Gulf Coast states. At the
surface, high pressure is progged to slide east into the Lower
Mississippi River Valley with a cool and dry airmass in place across
the region. Clear skies and calm winds will combine with the dry
airmass to create a textbook setup for radiational cooling on
Wednesday morning. Temperatures are expected to drop into the upper
30s to low 40s across the majority of the ArkLaMiss area with colder
readings possible in the traditional "cool spots". Frost is not
expected at this time, but will have to keep an eye on trends
especially if temperatures look to overachieve on the cooler side.
Highs will warm into the 70s beneath sunny skies on Wednesday, which
will result in a respectable diurnal temperature curve of around 30
degrees. Another cool night looks to be in store heading into
Thursday morning with lows once again well into the 40s and
afternoon highs warming into the low to mid 70s.

Global guidance quickly diverges by Friday into the weekend with a
highly uncertain forecast. The synoptic pattern will be
characterized by a piece of energy diving through the Inter-Mountain
West into the base of the mean longwave trough while ridging
amplifies along the Pacific Coast with another shortwave trough
moving into the Pacific Northwest. The ECMWF and CMC both cut-off
the lead piece of energy with a mid/upper-level low closing off over
west Texas by Friday morning and swinging through the ArkLaTex on
Saturday before being picked up by northern stream flow. This
scenario favors a wet Friday and Saturday with the potential for
heavy rainfall and flooding concerns as a surface low lifts along
the Mississippi River. The GFS, however, depicts a completely
different evolution and does not support a cut-off low with a more
progressive and weaker shortwave passing through the Deep South and
any rainfall confined to far southeast Mississippi with cool and dry
air across the majority of the area. Given these vast differences,
will keep the forecast in line with model blends and WPC which keeps
at least a chance of rain across the entire area with the highest
probabilities over the Pine Belt. Will keep the HWO/graphics clear
of any hazards for now, but will have to keep an eye on flooding
potential if the wetter ECMWF/CMC solution is realized. Temperatures
were also tricky over the weekend given the aforementioned model
differences, so also kept this part of the forecast close to model
blends and WPC. /TW/

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
Mix of MVFR to low IFR ceilings/flight categories prevail across
the region, with clearing conditions into the Delta (i.e. near GLH
& GWO). A cold front is moving into the Delta, leading to gradual
lifting of ceiling restrictions & drier conditions. Expect
ceilings to vary from MVFR to IFR conditions ahead of the front,
with some light showers & VCSH through around 22/01-03Z. Improving
ceilings will continue to spread from northwest to the east-
southeast through the overnight hours, with winds becoming more
northwest in the wake. Anticipate all sites being VFR after
22/05-07 tonight. Winds will become lighter overnight but could
begin to pick up at some TAF sites near 10-15mph after 22/16Z
tomorrow. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       49  70  41  72 /  19   0   0   0
Meridian      52  72  40  71 /  24   0   0   0
Vicksburg     48  71  42  73 /   8   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   54  73  41  71 /  16   0   0   0
Natchez       50  72  45  72 /  10   0   0   0
Greenville    47  68  43  71 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     46  68  41  71 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$