


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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305 FXUS64 KJAN 152309 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 609 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1258 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 Today through Wednesday Night: Made a few upward adjustments to the forecast regarding the convective coverage for our entire CWA later this afternoon, as guidance suggest slightly higher rain chances later today. Outside of that slight adjustment, the forecast for the near term period remains on track. A heat advisory remains in effect for areas along and west of I-55 until 7pm later this evening. Weather conditions will remain generally quiet across our forecast area tonight thanks to 1020mb sfc high over the southeast region. Afternoon/early evening HREF guidance is beginning to show low probabilities (around 20-30%) of patchy fog development mainly for areas along and east of I-55. Confidence is too low to introduce any fog graphics at this time, however shallow fog will be possible around dawn. Sky conditions will be generally clear heading into the overnight period. This along with light southwesterly winds will allow for radiational cooling to occur across our CWA. Because of this, nighttime lows will drop into the low to mid 70s areawide. Quiet conditions will persist across our area heading into Wednesday morning as near-term guidance continues to show the sfc high hovering over the southeast CONUS. Rain chances will start to increase across eastern portions of our forecast area thanks to northeasterly moist boundary layer advection by Wednesday afternoon. A few strong scattered storms cannot be ruled out. Elsewhere, areas west of I-55 will remain fairly dry. Warm and humid conditions will continue across our CWA on Wednesday. This combined with daytime highs peaking the mid to upper 90s, and dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s (with a few areas seeing dewpoints in the low 80s) will allow for heat indices across our CWA to be in the 105-110 degree range. A few areas across the NW Delta and west of I-55 will have the best potential of seeing heat index readings above 110 degrees. Regardless, dangerous heat will be the primary concern for Wednesday. A few changes were made to the heat graphic for the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe and the "Limited" risk across east MS has now been upgraded to an "Elevated" risk for dangerous heat. A heat advisory has been introduced for our entire CWA from 10am Wednesday morning through 7pm Wednesday evening. /CR/ Thursday through Tuesday: Dangerous heat will continue looking ahead into Thursday thanks to the 1020mb sfc high hovering over the southeast region. An "Elevated" risk for heat will continue to be advertised for our entire forecast area. Areas along the NW Delta including portions of NE LA will have the best potential to see heat indices above 110 degrees. For this reason, a "Significant" risk may be needed for these areas. Furthermore, additional heat advisories/warnings may be needed as well. Rain chances will increase across the area by Thursday with higher PoPs (between 80-95%) across southeast MS. Regarding the potential for impacts from a developing tropical system: the National Hurricane Center is still monitoring a medium probability (around 40%) for tropical cyclone development near the northern Gulf Coast. With tropical moisture pushing into our region and PWATs in the 90th percentiles, the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is still indicating a "Slight" risk for excessive rainfall for Friday and Saturday. There is a high ceiling for rainfall amounts that will be largely conditional on the level of organization and track of this potential system. Much of the ensemble guidance indicates the system will trend farther south with a heavy rainfall axis primarily impacting LA while skirting our western and southern areas. With forecast confidence still relatively low in the whole scenario, will hold off on more formal flood threat messaging, but will continue to highlight a more general heavy rainfall threat, especially for southern/western areas. All interests in the area should continue to monitor for updates as we go through the next few days. /CR/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 607 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with winds light, generally under 10 kts. /86/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 75 98 76 95 / 0 10 10 60 Meridian 75 98 75 93 / 0 20 20 70 Vicksburg 76 97 75 96 / 0 10 10 40 Hattiesburg 77 99 76 92 / 10 50 40 90 Natchez 74 96 75 94 / 0 10 10 60 Greenville 75 96 76 96 / 0 0 0 10 Greenwood 76 98 77 97 / 0 10 0 20 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025- 034>036-040>043-047>049-053>055-059>065-072>074. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ018-019- 025>066-072>074. LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016- 023>026. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ007>009- 015-016-023>026. AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ074-075. && $$ CR/CR/LP