Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 010722
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
322 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020

.Short Term (Today through Tuesday)...
Model and sfc analyses show a trough/low complex over the extreme NE
CONUS pushing a sfc frontal boundary into the west Atlantic, and
extending southward into the FL Big Bend area. As strong high
pressure envelopes much of the E CONUS, it will keep pushing the
front through the peninsula today.

Models have backed down the timing of this front and have pushed the
potential impacts for SoFlo into Tuesday, with POPS in the upper
scattered to numerous range for tomorrow afternoon. But not much
signal in terms of shifting winds with the FROPA, as directions
remaining very much from the east as the shear line associated with
the FROPA quickly erodes away. Thus, seems that the only significant
impact will be bringing enhanced moisture for scattered to numerous
afternoon showers, and with best chances over interior areas.
Coastal waters, mainly the Atlantic, may see a modest increase in
winds Tuesday morning, but considerably less than what model
solutions were depicting during the last couple of days.

Meanwhile, weak ridging aloft and at the sfc today will keep limited
support for some showers and a few storms, mainly interior and west
coast. Main lifting mechanism will be, again, sea breeze development
and subsequent outflow boundary interactions. Easterly winds may
become brisk in the afternoon along the Atlantic coastline ahead of
the front, in the 10-15 mph range at times.

Little changes in the temperature outlooks with upper 80s to low 90s
today, then slightly cooler on Tuesday with the FROPA with mid 80s
to around 90.

.Long Term (Wednesday through Sunday)...
During the middle of the week, the weak frontal boundary will
continue to diminsh across South Florida or just to the north of
the area. At the same time, a ridge of high pressure off to the
northeast in the Atlantic will continue to elongate and it will
allow for an east to southeasterly flow to continue. Deep
moisture will begin to advect into the area for the middle of the
week as well which will help to enhance the chances of showers and
thunderstorms during this time frame. With the diminishing front
remaining just to the north, there will be enough instability to
support the possibility of a few stronger thunderstorms
developing. The greatest chances of stronger thunderstorm
development will be across the interior and west coast. The
strongest thunderstorms could contain gusty winds and torrential
rainfall.

As the end of the week approaches, model consensus continues to
suggest that an area of low pressure will lift north into the
Gulf of Mexico and western Carribean Sea during this time frame.
The strength and location of this feature will play a role in the
forecast for the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend.
Confidence still remains low due to remaining differences in the
models regarding strength and location of the area of low
pressure. The latest model guidance is hinting at the deep
moisture remaining in place through the end of the week as pwat
values will be near or above 2 inches during this time frame. Due
to the high amounts of available moisture in place, there will be
the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flooding. With the
high uncertainty in place, forecast changes will continue to be
likely for this period. This will continue to be monitored as the
week progresses.

&&

.Marine...
Overall boating conditons remain benign today as a cold front slowly
approaches the waters. Winds and seas will approach advisory levels
by tuesday early morning over the Atlantic waters, but even if
criteria is met it should not last long. By late Tuesday and into
Wednesday conditions should subside as pressure gradients relax
behind the frontal passage. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected through the period, which may bring brief periods of
rough seas and gusty winds.

&&

.Aviation...
VFR conditions should prevail across all taf sites through the
period. Light and variable winds will increase from the east and
become breezy by 17-18Z over the Atlantic terminals. While not a
traditional sea breeze is expected to form over APF, still brought
winds to the SSW this afternoon. East coast terminals should
remain generally dry, but included VCSH for the afternoon hours as
moisture embedded in the easterly flow could result in a passing
shower or two.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
West Palm Beach  87  75  83  75 /  20  20  70  40
Fort Lauderdale  87  77  84  76 /  10  10  60  40
Miami            89  77  85  76 /  10  10  60  40
Naples           89  74  87  73 /  40  20  70  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

Marine...17/AR
Aviation...17/AR
Short Term...17/AR
Long Term...55/CWC



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