


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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575 FXUS61 KRLX 140537 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 137 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Daily chances for mainly diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms continue into the new work week as a warm and moist airmass remains in place. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 1035 PM Sunday... A cluster of showers and thunderstorms remains to the west ahead of a front that will be sinking south overnight. CAMs show them weakening as they enter the area, which radar suggests this solution currently too as showers start to enter our northeastern KY counties. Models remain conservative with PoPs as well, though did increase them some along our western periphery overnight where there is higher confidence for some more organized showers to move through. As of 827 PM Sunday... No changes needed to the forecast. Radar shows a few cells remaining at this hour, but overall seeing a decline in strength with the loss of diurnal heating. As of 1125 AM Sunday... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, especially across the higher elevations of eastern West Virginia. Short-term model guidance consistently shows PWAT values reaching 1.75-2.00 area-wide. While severe weather is unlikely due to a lack of significant wind shear, an isolated stronger storm or two could develop, bringing localized damaging wind gusts. A cold front will slowly approach the Ohio River Monday, with a 60- 70% chance of stalling along or just west of the river. The NBM model has shown increased confidence in this stalling, leading to a higher probability (50-70%) of increased PoPs across the region for Monday afternoon. Heavy downpours remain a concern with PWATs expected to be at or around 2.00. However, storms should be moving fast enough ahead of the front to prevent widespread flooding issues. An alternate scenario for Monday is the front pushing further east into West Virginia, which could lead to drier conditions along and west of the Ohio River. However, this alternate scenario does not look likely. Expect high temperatures in the middle and upper 80s today and Monday with dew points reaching the middle 70s. Staying hydrated and taking breaks in air conditioning will be necessary when spending extended time outdoors. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 1128 AM Sunday... For Tuesday, there is a 40-60% probability of rain, primarily concentrated over the mountains. This represents an increase from yesterday`s 10-30% probability, likely influenced by the high- pressure center`s projected position just east of the Appalachians and lingering upper-level energy. Wednesday presents similar probabilities for showers and thunderstorms due to a comparable atmospheric setup. Both days carry an elevated probability of heavy downpours within any developing storms, with precipitable water values ranging from 1.60-1.80. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1129 AM Sunday... Daily shower and thunderstorm chances are highly probable from Thursday through Saturday. A high-pressure system along the Southeast U.S. coastline will channel significant Gulf moisture into the middle Ohio Valley and central Appalachians. While models generally indicate a front approaching the Ohio River between Thursday and Saturday, there is inconsistency regarding its precise timing. Based on the latest runs from the NBM, ECMWF, and GFS, the most probable scenario (supported by a majority of recent model runs, especially the NBM and more recent GFS runs) is that the front stalls over our region, leading to continued rain chances into next weekend. A less likely alternate scenario (supported by earlier model iterations and some ECMWF variability, though it now leans towards stalling) suggests the front pushes through more definitively. This could temporarily decrease rain chances after the frontal passage before renewed moisture advection. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 135 AM Monday... Showers and a few thunderstorms that continue to move across the area could briefly produce MVFR conditions tonight. Additional IFR or worse restrictions should occur as valley fog begins to form; however, exactly how widespread fog will be is uncertain as extent may be limited by increasing cloud cover and some light winds. The best potential for fog will be in areas that recently received rain and where skies clear and winds go calm. Some improvement should occur once fog dissipates during the morning. Periodic CIG/VIS restrictions could then arise as showers and thunderstorms become more widespread during the day. Activity tapers off after 00Z, then areas of fog could again form as skies start to clear late in the TAF period. Calm to light winds are expected for the majority of the TAF period, though occasional strong gusts could be possible within storms today. Southerly winds turn westerly during the day, then become variable for Monday night. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of fog tonight and precipitation today may vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 07/14/25 UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M L H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M L M M H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M M M H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M L H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M H H AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... Brief periods of IFR conditions possible under showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. IFR river valley fog possible during the overnights. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMC NEAR TERM...ARJ/LTC/JMC SHORT TERM...JMC LONG TERM...JMC AVIATION...20