Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 161135
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
635 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected today as high pressure builds across the
region. North winds 10 knots to become northeast 10 to 15 knots
and gusty across area terminals by 16/18Z. Winds to diminish to 5
knots after sunset. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 418 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019/

SHORT TERM.../Today through Thursday/
Early morning convection along cold front to quickly exit the
region to the south by daybreak. High pressure building behind the
cold front to advect drier air across the region. Temperatures
this afternoon to only make it into the mid 60s to around 70
before diving into the lower 40s overnight. Skies to generally
improve from the northwest throughout the day with north winds
around 10 to 15 mph. Otherwise, upper-level ridge to prevail
through Thursday with mainly clear skies and afternoon high
temperatures in the lower 70s. /05/

LONG TERM.../Thursday Night through Tuesday/

Area will remain partially under influence of sfc high pressure,
centered over Ohio Valley, while srn stream cut-off low over the Big
Bend of TX manages to drift ewd as it merges with open wave trough
quickly movg eastward. A warming trend underway as the weekend
begins, as upper flow becomes swly ahead of our next trof.

Medium chances of Tropical Disturbance to strengthen to T.S status
as it begins to approach nrn gulf coastline by beginning of wknd.
Still keeping pops low initially, until cold front begins to
approach area from the north Sunday night. Influence of tropical
feature could either enhance or cut off gulf flow, depending on its
positioning and potential onshore movement. Meanwhile a weak cold
front to the north expected to wash out in increasingly zonal flow
as the shortwave lifts newd Saturday.

As main upper trof to finally eject into the Plains Sunday, bringing
convection along the stalled front as it churns ewd. Final push will
come Sunday night into Monday, with rain finally ending by the end
of the pd Monday night. Will keep most pops in chance category, with
high end chance to low end likely pops expected with fropa late
Sunday night into Monday, with rainfall ending Monday night./07/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  47  72  51 /  10   0   0   0
MLU  69  46  71  52 /  10   0   0   0
DEQ  68  42  71  47 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  67  44  71  49 /  10   0   0   0
ELD  67  43  71  48 /  10   0   0   0
TYR  67  47  71  52 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  67  46  71  50 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  70  51  71  54 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05/07/19


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