007
FXUS64 KSJT 131747
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1247 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch is in Effect for portions of West Central Texas
  extended into tonight.

- Scattered showers and storms, some with heavy rainfall, are
  possible tonight and Monday.

- Drier and warmer conditions return by mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

MCV evident in radar and satellite imagery very near Brady early
this afternoon, and not showing a lot of movement. Main area of
convection has pushed east and south of West Central Texas so far
this afternoon and that trend should continue for a few more
hours. Concern is really whether the air mass can respond fast
enough and bring enough low instability and moisture convergence
back towards that MCV for this evening. Models have struggled with
this setup and the CAMs are just now starting to catch on that the
MCV exists. Latest 16Z HRRR shows convection redeveloping right
along the CWA border from San Saba to Kimble Counties overnight,
and expanding in coverage. Again, given the uncertainty in just
where the MCV and any associated convection ends up, and how well
the models are handling it at this point, have opted to extend the
Flood Watch into tonight for portions of the area from Brownwood
to Brady and then west into Sonora and Ozona. This area saw the
heaviest rainfall tonight and cant take any more rain, so the
potential for flooding is certainly there if even spotty
convection wanders back across it.

The models do show more convection redeveloping during the
afternoon across a little more of the area, including all the way
back near San Angelo, just due to heating and afternoon
destabilization. Have bumped up POPs for some portions of the area
with that in mind.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Not much attention in the long term with everything focused on
the ongoing flooding. Still, appears the upper level trough will
gradually erode as upper level ridging starts to become more
dominant. This is especially true by mid week and into next
weekend. Temperatures will start to climb, although very wet soils
likely to make it a little tougher across the southern and easter
areas. Mid 90s expected across the northern half of the area with
lower 90s farther south.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Satellite and radar images indicate an MCS across the southern and
eastern portions of the CWA early this morning. MVFR to IFR
conditions were prevailing across portions of the Heartland,
northwest Hill Country and northern Edwards Plateau with ceilings
near 700ft at KCOM to near 2600ft at KOZA and visibilities near
3SM with rain and mist at KBWD to near 4SM with rain at KBBD.
500mb low/trough associated with the MCS across west central Texas
this morning will move slowly eastward this afternoon. Expect MVFR
to IFR conditions to prevail across the southern and eastern
portions of west central Texas the rest of this morning with low
clouds reducing ceilings and heavy rain reducing visibilities with
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     71  90  73  92 /   0  20  10  10
San Angelo  68  88  71  90 /  10  30  10  20
Junction    68  87  71  88 /  40  50  20  30
Brownwood   69  88  72  89 /  30  40  10  20
Sweetwater  70  91  72  93 /  10  10  10  10
Ozona       68  87  70  87 /  10  30  20  20
Brady       68  86  70  87 /  40  50  10  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late tonight for Brown-Crockett-Kimble-Mason-
McCulloch-Menard-San Saba-Schleicher-Sutton.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...61