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000
FXUS64 KSJT 140923
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
423 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

...A plume of moisture from a Pacific system will bring rain
chances this afternoon...

Water vapor imagery this morning shows a plume of moisture
associated with a weak tropical wave, moving into western Mexico.
This moisture is being pulled up into western Texas by a high
pressure area sitting in the Gulf of Mexico and an upper level
trough digging south across California. We haven`t seen any rain
associated with this moisture plume as the low levels still remain
rather dry and the LCL`s remain elevated. The mid to high level
clouds have increased this morning and this has kept temperatures
warm across the area this morning. As this plume of moisture gets
picked up by the deepening trough out west, a gradual moistening of
the low levels will take place and with it, rain chances will be
more likely, especially as we head in the latter part of the day.
Most of the precipitation will be light but a rumble of thunder
can`t be ruled out this afternoon. Even with isolated embedded
thunderstorm cores, rainfall totals will be light at less than a
quarter of an inch. Temperatures will be in the 80s but could be
cooler in places that see rain and thicker cloud cover, and warmer
in areas that miss out on the rain and see breaks in the clouds.
Overnight lows will be in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)

Rain will continue Tuesday into early Wednesday as an upper trough
approaches from the west and a cold front heads south across the
area. The best chance for rain and thunderstorms will be across
the southeastern counties, but most areas should at least get a
little bit of rain before the front and trough head out of the
area during the day Wednesday. Temperatures should be below
seasonal normals for Tuesday night and Wednesday behind the front,
with lows in the 40s and 50s, and highs in the 70s. A warming
trend and dry weather expected for mid to late week, with
generally zonal flow aloft, continuing into the early part of the
weekend. The next stronger upper trough will approach from the
northwest late Sunday, with another round of rain and
thunderstorms possible Sunday into Monday.

08
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  80  65  87  51 /  20  30  30  20
San Angelo  82  65  89  52 /  20  30  30  30
Junction  83  67  89  56 /  20  20  30  50
Brownwood  80  66  87  51 /  20  30  40  40
Sweetwater  83  64  84  49 /  20  30  20  10
Ozona       80  66  86  53 /  20  30  20  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$