Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 131542
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
942 AM MDT Fri Apr 13 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 935 AM MDT Fri Apr 13 2018

Increased pops for this morning over the San Luis Valley, srn
Sangres and srn I-25 corridor, as lobe of energy rotates eastward
along the NM border and briefly brings a burst of precip to the
area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 351 AM MDT Fri Apr 13 2018

...Strong winds and much colder conditions expected this afternoon...

Currently...broad low pressure aloft is centered over Central
Colorado early this morning with a cold front surging south across
the Eastern Plains.  Winds have increased out of the north at 15 to
20 mph with gusts to near 30 mph behind the front, which will only
increase today.  Radar indicates areas of snowfall over the Rampart
Range, northeast into the Palmer Divide area so far.  A few light
echoes are also starting to appear across the far Eastern Plains.
Snow also continues over the Mountain areas early this morning.

Today...the upper level low is forecast to move into northwest
Kansas and strengthen through this afternoon.  Very strong northerly
winds are expected to develop by mid morning and persist through
this afternoon across the Eastern Plains.  Areas from the Palmer
Divide, south into Pueblo County, and all the Eastern Plains are
under a high wind warning.  North winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts over
60 mph are expected.  For those traveling on U.S. Highway 50, along
with other west to east highways will experience extreme cross
winds.  High profile and light weight vehicles will be prone to
toppling over and should exercise extreme caution while traveling.

As for precipitation, followed a blend of the HRRR and NAM through
this afternoon.  Locations along the Palmer Divide will see snowfall
through much of the day along with blowing snow due to the strong
winds.  Further south, both models develop a band of rainfall which
is forecast to move eastward across the Plains, shifting east and
dissipating by evening.  Further south, light snow will also be
possible over the Raton Mesa area, however, winds will be lighter
over this region and likely preclude any blowing snow.  There will
likely be a sharp gradient in rain and snow from Colorado Springs,
south into Pueblo due to the north downsloping winds, which will
limit precipitation potential through this afternoon.

Tonight...the upper level low will slowly drift into northeast
Kansas through tonight with continued strong winds expected across
southern Colorado. North winds will continue to gust in excess 50
mph through the overnight hours, especially across the Eastern
Plains. As the upper low pulls away, expected lingering
precipitation to dissipate and shift east into Kansas during the
evening hours, with generally dry conditions overnight.
Temperatures will cool enough out east that before all is said and
done, snow and blowing snow may be an issue for a couple hours over
Kiowa County.  This will need to be monitored.  As for the
mountains, snow will likely linger into the morning hours,
especially for areas north of Cottonwood Pass.  Snow totals over the
Central Mountains will likely range in the 3 to 6 inch, while the
rest of the Continental Divide and Eastern Mountains see 1 to 3
inches of snowfall. Mozley

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 351 AM MDT Fri Apr 13 2018

Still on the windy back side of the system for Saturday with the closed
upper low across central/eastern KS progged to shift slowly
northeast through the day. While precipitation will be tailing off
quickly across the Palmer Divide and Central mountains in the
morning strong northerly H7 winds of 50-70 kt will remain across
the plains during the morning hours. It won`t take much mixing to
tap these strong winds aloft, and current high wind warnings
continue into Saturday. By afternoon the axis of stronger winds
will shift eastward so have made some minor changes to the end
times of the high wind warnings, and will pair out the I-25
corridor and adjacent plains from the warning around 21z while
keeping the far eastern counties going through 00z. Strongest
winds will be in the morning. Will also have to watch the dew
points closely as we will be near critical fire weather thresholds
for around an hour or two in the afternoon across the plains, and
especially northern portions of the San Luis Valley. For now
coverage does not look widespread enough, nor duration long enough
to justify a Fire Weather Watch. And will need to see how much of
the plains gets some wrap around precipitation this morning which
could moisten fuels just enough.

Sunday will be a quiet day between systems. Temperatures will
rebound back into the 60s for the lower elevations with 40s and 50s
for the mountains and mainly 30s above treeline.  Next system will
be moving through the western U.S. on Monday spreading increasing
winds and likely another critical fire weather day across the plains
for Monday and possibly into Tuesday before this system glances to
the north and sends another cold front through the area.  This
system is projected to remain on a farther north track than the
previous one and only area that could pick up some showers will be
the central mountains where some light accumulations will be
possible.

Weather quiets down a bit for mid week then attention turns westward
once more as the next closed low is progged by long range models to
drop through the southwest U.S. and lift towards the 4 corner region
by 12z Friday.  Southerly flow ahead of the system on Thursday will
advect low level moisture northward with the chance for
thunderstorms across the far southeast plains Thursday evening
assuming dew points can rebound quickly enough. System then tracks
across CO on Friday spreading a mix of rain and high elevation snow
across the region. Will be watching this storm closely as the
suggestion of a more southern track would be favorable for more of
southern CO to pick up some measurable precipitation. However this
far out, changes in storm track are highly likely.  So will continue
to watch and wait. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 351 AM MDT Fri Apr 13 2018

KALS...there is a very low probability of a snow shower moving over
the terminal early this morning, but will not mention in the TAF.
Mid and high cloud cover will continue to spread across the
area through this evening.  North winds will increase for this
afternoon with gusts to near 35 kts expected.  Winds should weaken
this evening and through the overnight hours.

KCOS...light rain and snow showers will be possible early this
morning with CIGS and VIS reduced.  CIGS will lower to near 020 with
any showers that move over the terminal.  Models in good agreement
with north winds increasing through the morning hours, with gusts
approaching 50 kts or higher this afternoon and evening.  As winds
increase out of the north, rain and snow should end, by 15z or so.
Winds will remain elevated through the overnight period.

KPUB...light rain is possible through this morning with reduced CIGS
and VIS possible.  North winds will increase by mid morning which
will end precipitation chances for the terminal.  North winds
gusting near 50 kts are expected this afternoon and evening.  Winds
should subside a bit during the overnight hours, but still remain
around 30 kts. Mozley


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 3 PM MDT Saturday for COZ084>086-089-093-
094.

High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT Saturday for COZ095>099.

Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ058-
060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MOZLEY



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