161
FXUS65 KPUB 151741
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1041 AM MST Wed Jan 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A brief warming and drying trend kicks off this morning, with
  near normal temperatures expected today, and the warmest
  temperatures of the next several days moving in tomorrow.

- Widespread light snow develops Friday night into Saturday, as
  as a cold, Arctic airmass moves into the region.

- Bitter cold temperatures then likely Sunday into at least Tuesday
  morning, along with another round of light snow Sunday night
  and Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 304 AM MST Wed Jan 15 2025

Currently..

Temperatures have fallen into the teens and single digits above zero
across the plains this morning, with temperatures already near zero
as of 1am in the San Luis Valley. Skies are mostly clear, with some
mid-level cloud cover passing across our far eastern plains. Winds
are mainly light and following normal drainage patterns at most
locations. Dewpoint reading are near or below zero.

Today and Tonight..

Ridging begins to build in across the region today, which should
lead to a nice warm up for our temperatures. Daytime highs will be
near to slightly below normal for most, with readings in the low to
mid 40s across the plains and the Middle Arkansas River Valley. The
San Luis Valley looks to remain in the low 30s for highs today, with
temperatures falling into the teens and 20s for higher terrain
locations. Winds will be mostly light and northwesterly to westerly
this afternoon, under mostly clear skies. Rain and snow are not
expected today. Overnight lows tonight will be several degrees
warmer than what we are waking up to this morning for most
locations, thanks to increasing westerly and downsloping winds.

Thursday..

Thursday looks to be the warmest day of the next...several. Consider
getting out and enjoying it if you prefer your outdoors time to be
above freezing. Highs for Thursday afternoon look to climb well into
the low to mid 50s across the plains with plenty of sunshine to be
had across the area. Mountain valleys look to warm into the upper
30s and 40s. Winds will begin to pick up slightly, especially for
gap flow areas, though relative humidity values will be plenty high
enough to prevent any critical fire weather concerns. Overall,
Thursday looks to be a beautiful day for southeast Colorado.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 304 AM MST Wed Jan 15 2025

Strong short wave trough digs into the nrn Rockies Friday, with
accompanying Arctic front racing southward into Colorado by
afternoon. Should be just enough mixing ahead of the front for
one more mild day across the area, though will have to keep a
close eye on frontal timing, as just a slight increase in speed
would lead to much colder maxes across the plains. Temps fall
quickly behind the front Fri night, with snow breaking out
toward midnight and continuing through Sat as short wave drops
south through the region. Still looks like mainly a light snow
event with 2 to 5 inches at many locations, heaviest over
eastern mountain slopes. Max temps Sat may only rise a few degf
from early morning lows, as cold air continues to drop south
through the region.

Sat night, snow fades away as short wave and lift shift south of
Colorado. Clouds look slower to clear, which may keep Sun morning
low temps from falling too low, though many areas will likely
end up near or below zero, with coldest readings over the higher
peaks in the central mountains and over Pikes Peak. On Sunday,
brief break between weather system expected, with some sunshine
possible late morning into early afternoon. Good deal of spread
amongst models/ensembles regarding Sun max temps, as deterministic
GFS looks to be a rather warm outlier, which has biased blended
guidance warmer than past few model cycles. In general, went
colder than NBM guidance at most locations (close to ECM MOS),
though not quite as cold as previous forecast. Secondary upper
wave and reinforcing surge of cold air then arrive Sun evening,
spreading another round of light snow through the region.
Amounts will be light, 1-3 inches, heaviest eastern mountain
slopes. Slight colder mins Mon morning, and most locations will
drop below zero. Mon may end up being the coldest day of the
Arctic outbreak, with single digits and teens the best we can
do. Again, nudged NBM temps downward a few degf, sticking close
to ECM guidance. Snow fades away Mon night, and with some
clearing, min temps could fall to bitter cold values early
Tuesday morning, though timing of developing downslope wly winds
and mid-level warming will also factor in. For now, have
readings in the minus 5 (ern plains) to minus 15 range, with a
few minus 20f readings possible in usual cold/sheltered mountain
valleys. Warming trend then begins Tue into mid-week, as wrn
ridge begins to shift back eastward.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1041 AM MST Wed Jan 15 2025

VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24
hours. Winds should be relatively light with mostly clear skies.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO