000
FXUS65 KPUB 042045
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
245 PM MDT Sun Jun 4 2023

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Sun Jun 4 2023

...Unsettled pattern continues with widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms expected...

Key messages:

1) Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through
tomorrow, heavier showers and perhaps a stronger storm or two will
be possible this evening and tomorrow afternoon.

2) The threat of severe storms is very low, however there could be
some non-supercell tornadoes over the southeastern plains this
evening.

3) Flash flooding is a possibility if some of the heavier showers
remain stationary or there are training storms. Areas at most risk
are burn scars and urbanized areas.

Detailed discussion:

Currently and through tonight...

A weak area of low pressure over the southeastern plains with an
abundance of low level moisture will keep showers and thunderstorms
going through the evening. Showers will also continue through the
night, with some rumbles of thunder possible. When analyzing CAM
data, there is not a sufficient amount of instability for there to
be much concern for any storms becoming severe, although given the
area of low pressure with some low level helicity, the possibility
exists for there to be some non-supercell tornadoes. The lastest SPC
mesoanalysis pegs an area over the southeastern plains with values
as high as 4 for non-supercell tornadoes, mainly over Otero and
eastern Las Animas counties. There could also be an isolated funnel
or tornado also over portions of the I-25 corridor through the
evening until the low further weakens and moves out. It will remain
mostly cloudy to overcast for much of the CWA through the night
which will keep temperatures more modified, mainly in the 50s over
the plains and 30s to 40s for high country.

Tomorrow...

There is going to be some recycled moisture in the low and mid
levels tomorrow with relatively higher dewpoints over the plains.
However, there will be very little in the way of shear and CAPE, so
while thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon hours over
most of the CWA as daytime helps to destabilize things, the threat
of any storm becoming severe will be very minimal and mainly
confined only to the far eastern plains where there are some areas
of better MUCAPE of 1500 J/kg. There is greater confidence that a
few storms will only become stronger with perhaps some nickel size
hail and gusty winds to 50 mph, without it ever becoming severe.
With ridging slightly building over the region, temperatures will be
slightly warmer tomorrow, getting up into the 70s over the plains
and even near 80 along the CO/KS border. This will also depend on
which areas continue to be mostly cloudy to overcast during the
afternoon. High temperatures in the upper Rio Grande/Arkansas River
Valley and San Luis Valley will be relatively warmer, getting up
into the upper 60s to low 70s as there will likely be mostly sunny
skies over these areas through the early afternoon hours before
convective initiation. Temperatures over the highest elevations are
expected to be in the 40s and 50s.  -Stewey

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Sun Jun 4 2023

Key Messages:

1) Active pattern continues later this week with localized heavy
rainfall and the potential for flash flooding the main risks.

No real big change moving forward into the week, with daily
shower and thunderstorm development looking to remain possible.
Will see the upper low/trough in place really weaken, with weak
ridging aloft expected. Pattern and flow still look to be really
weak, while the low/mid levels maintain some type of easterly
component. Given this setup along with increases in moisture and
instability, expect increased chances for showers and
thunderstorms to persist. By Tuesday, increasing instability
trends look to continue especially as there is the potential for
some more sunshine prior to thunderstorm development in the
afternoon. Despite this likely higher instability, flow and shear
look to remain rather weak. So, the risk of widespread severe
weather will be low on Tuesday but can`t completely rule out a few
stronger storms. The main risks will continue to be locally heavy
rainfall. By the middle to end of the work week, pattern looks to
support more of a diurnal shower/storm development. At this
point, think the main risks would continue to be localized heavy
rainfall. Potentially some lower coverage by Thursday and Friday,
but this looks to change going into the weekend. During this time,
temps are expected to warm back to more normal temps for this
time of the year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Sun Jun 4 2023

SHRA and TSRA are expected to be in and around the vicinity of all
stations through most of the forecast period, with better chances of
SHRA/TSRA on station at KCOS and KPUB. If SHRA/TSRA does develop, it
could temporarily reduce CIGs and VIS to MVFR/IFR criteria. It could
also result in periodic windshifts and increased wind speeds at for
all terminals. Otherwise, conditions will be generally VFR to MVFR
(with lower CIGs) throughout the forecast period. Winds will be
mainly synoptically driven at all terminals due to a low to the
southeast of all stations, and mostly light (less than 10 kts) out
of the NW to NE for KPUB and KCOS. They will become gusty to 19 kts
for KALS until 06Z, then decrease and switch to a ESE`ly direction
towards the end of the forecast period. Winds will also become
mostly L&V at KALS and KPUB during the early morning hours tomorrow,
mainly between 10 to 16Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWARD
LONG TERM...RODRIGUEZ
AVIATION...STEWARD