Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 271722
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1122 AM MDT Fri May 27 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 432 AM MDT Fri May 27 2022

Currently...

Mostly clear skies prevailed across the region at 3 AM. Winds were
light and temperatures were in the 50s across the plains and 40s
valleys. 30s prevailed in the mtns.

Today...

Main issue today will be the increasing heat and increasing breezy
conditions over the entire fcst area. Although meteorological
conditions for extreme fire behavior , fuels over the plains/S mtns
are still moist from previous precip events. Over the San Juans, and
San Luis Valley fuels are receptive, and a Red Flag warning is in
place over these regions.

Some thunder is likely over the mtns this afternoon and I-25
corridor region late this afternoon. Storms will be on the "dry
side" with locally strong gusty winds and an occasional lightning
flash the main concerns. Over the higher terrain, the greatest
threat of thunder will be from the greater Monarch Pass area to the
Pikes Peak region.

Temperatures will be in the 90s most of the plains, with mid 90s
over the lower Ark Rvr valley areas, with 80s over the divides. Over
the SLV, 80s are anticipated with 40s through 60s in the mtns. wind
gusts to 30 to 40 mph will occur over the valleys/mtns with 20
to 30 mph gusts over the plains.

Tonight...

Some isolated thunder will be possible mainly along the I-25
corridor region early this evening. Don`t believe we will see any
sustained convection over the far eastern plains as it is going to
be quite dry through the column per point soundings. Otherwise,
anticipate mostly clear skies later this evening with lows in the
50s plains and 40s valleys. /Hodanish

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 432 AM MDT Fri May 27 2022

Key messages:

1) Critical fire weather conditions are expected for the San Luis
Valley and southern Continental Divide from Saturday through Tuesday
during the afternoon/early evening. Depending on fuels, critical
fire weather conditions may be possible over the plains.

2) Thunderstorms and some high elevation snow will be possible over
the higher terrain, along the northern I-25 corridor, and over the
Palmer Divide Sunday and Monday.

3) On Tuesday, some strong to severe thunderstorms may occur over
the far eastern plains. Marginal thunderstorms will be possible
elsewhere over the eastern mountains and plains.

4) On Wednesday, showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the
eastern mountains and plains. Much cooler after passage of a cold
front late Tuesday afternoon.

5) On Thursday, thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon
and evening hours over much of southeast Colorado.

Detailed discussion:

Saturday...

The ridge overhead is going to begin to break down and progress
eastward as the longwave trough upstream over the western CONUS
continues to advance towards the region. This will allow for the
southwesterly flow to become enhanced over the CWA. Due to the dry
and adiabatically warming downsloping winds, there will be critical
fire weather conditions expected for the southern Continental
Divide, as well as the San Luis Valley. Land management may need to
be contacted to see what the fuel conditions are for the plains, and
if necessary, the Red Flag Warning may need to be extended to
include some of these areas. It will also be very warm with near
record high temperatures and triple digit heat possible over the far
eastern plains, especially in the lower Arkansas River Valley.

Sunday through Monday...

As the trough further advances over the region, there will be
showers and some higher elevation moving in over the northern
Continental Divide by early Sunday morning. With increasing
instability by later in the afternoon, some of these showers will
become thunderstorms and the 700 mb level moisture will spread
further south to provide a chance of afternoon thunderstorms over
all of the mountains, with some of them moving out over the adjacent
plains, along the I-25 corridor and Palmer Divide by late afternoon
and into the early evening. Monday looks to be a very similar
pattern to Sunday, with chances again of thunderstorms developing
over nearly all of the higher terrain and then moving over the
adjacent plains (mainly the northern I-25 corridor) by later in the
evening. Wind flow will continue to be out of the southwest,
therefore critical fire weather conditions look to be a concern for
both days over the southern Continental Divide and San Luis Valley,
and possibly over the plains if fuels are conducive. There will
begin a slight cooling trend as the trough nears the region.

Tuesday through Thursday...

The trough will begin to slow and deepen by early Tuesday morning,
at which time the deterministic models begin to deviate more
dramatically from one another. The ECMWF has more troughing moving
over Wednesday morning, whereas the GFS and Canadian tend to keep
the 500 mb wave more zonal. There does appear to be a cold front
moving through by later in the afternoon on Tuesday, and this is
also confirmed through ensemble data with decreasing temperatures by
later in the day and much cooler for high temperatures on Wednesday.
Depending on where the dryline establishes itself, there could be
some severe thunderstorms forming over the far eastern plains, along
the CO/KS border by later in the afternoon on Tuesday. Marginal
thunderstorms which could possibly become stronger could occur over
the eastern mountains and plains for both Tuesday and Wednesday
during the afternoon. On Thursday, the models reflect that another
weak perturbation in the longwave pattern which will will be
downstream by this time will transition over the region and allow
for thunderstorms to be possible again over most of the CWA. At this
time, models also show somewhat agreement with slight ridging that
will occur simultaneously and allow for a warmup in temperatures for
highs on Thursday.  -Stewey

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1122 AM MDT Fri May 27 2022

KCOS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Isolated
high based thunderstorms will develop over the Pike Peak area and
push east during the afternoon. Coverage is expected to be low with
storms that develop. Little precipitation will reach the ground with
these storms, so the greatest threat with be strong and erratic
outflow winds and lightning. Otherwise, mid to high level clouds
will increase this afternoon, before mid level clouds dissipate
overnight and high level clouds persist. Winds will also lessen
overnight, but will quickly start to increase near the end of this
TAF period.

KPUB: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Isolated
rain showers, and possibly thunderstorms, will develop this
afternoon, but will be low in coverage. Little precipitation will be
reaching the ground with these showers though, so the greatest
threat will be gusty and erratic outflow winds. Otherwise, mid to
high level clouds will increase this afternoon, before mid level
clouds dissipate overnight and high level clouds persist. Winds will
also lessen overnight, but will quickly start to increase near the
end of this TAF period.

KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Winds will
become gusty this afternoon, before lessening overnight. Winds will
quickly start to increase again tomorrow morning near the end of
this TAF period. Mid to high level clouds will persist this
afternoon, before mid level clouds dissipate overnight and high
level clouds persist.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ223-224.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 10 PM MDT Saturday for COZ223-224.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...STEWARD
AVIATION...SIMCOE


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