603
FXUS65 KPUB 152039
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
239 PM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front will bring cooler temperatures for Wednesday and
  Thursday, along with widespread showers and thunderstorms both
  days.

- Severe storms possible along the I-25 corridor and across the
  southeast plains Wednesday afternoon and evening, some pockets
  of heavy rainfall also forecast.

- Daily afternoon and evening showers and storms are expected
  through the long term period, with slowly decreasing coverage
  and strength from into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 202 PM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Isolated weak/high based/brief convection across the area this
afternoon, as rather low instability (CAPE 300-800 J/KG) and
lack of much upward forcing were limiting storm coverage/intensity.
For the remainder of the afternoon into the evening, mainly
isolated pop-up showers and storms will persist, producing
lightning and gusty outflow winds but only brief rainfall.
Exception may be across El Paso County, where weak boundary/cold
front may help generate slightly stronger/longer lasting
storms. Overnight, cold front sweeps south through the plains,
bringing gusty n-ne winds as a cooler/moister air mass fills in
behind the boundary by mid-morning Wednesday.

On Wednesday, mid level winds increase slightly as trailing edge
of upper level jet streak shifts eastward into the central
plains. 0-6km shear increases as well, with values around 30 kts
across the plains by afternoon. Plenty of moisture available
across the southeast mountains/I-25 corridor and southeast
plains as post-frontal upslope regime develops, leading to
significant instability as CAPE climbs into the 1000-2500 J/KG
range east of the mountains. Overall, expect widespread
convection to develop in the afternoon, with storms moving into
the I-25 corridor and southeast plains during the late
afternoon/evening hours. Severe storms will be possible, with
SWODY2 showing slight risk along the I-25 corridor, and marginal
risk over the eastern mountains and plains. Gusty winds again
the main risk, though 30kt shear/2000+ J/KG CAPE environment
will support hail up to golfball size under any stronger storms.
Locally heavy rainfall possible as well, though PWATs of around
an inch aren`t particularly high. Max temps Wed will be much
cooler in wake of the cold front, with mainly 80s valleys/lower
elevations, 60s/70s mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 301 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Convection may linger past midnight Wednesday night, especially
across the southeast plains, before activity weakens and pushes
into KS by early Thu morning.

Thursday...A Day 2 scenario sets up, with abundant llvl
moisture remaining in place producing widespread 2500 j/kg of
CAPE across the plains. The one difference is that bulk shear is
more limited. If the morning stability can be broken, then it
will be another active day. Some isolated convection across the
higher terrain through the morning will give way to likely to
categorical precip chances for much of the area, and QPF
bullseyes are leaning towards the southern mts and southern
border. Thu will be the coolest day of the forecast period, with
max temps only warming into the upper 70s to lower 80s for most
locations.

Friday and Saturday...The upper pattern is still sporting a monsoon-
like look through Saturday, with an upper high over the Gulf and an
upper low sitting over the CA Baja. Convection potential remains
elevated and widespread, with temperatures climbing back up to
seasonal normals both days. Highs will be in the upper 70s to mid
80s for the high valleys, and mid 80s to mid 90s for the plains.

Sunday and Monday...Long range models are now hinting at the upper
high over the Gulf spreading west, and effectively crimping down the
moisture feed out of Mexico and up across the Desert SW. There
will still be a daily shot of convection, but it looks like it
will be tied more to the higher terrain, with just isolated
activity possible across the eastern plains. Temps will remain
normal for Sunday, but then creep up to slightly above normal
for Monday. Moore

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1133 AM MDT Tue Jul 15 2025

KCOS and KPUB...VFR conditions the next 24 hours. Isolated to
scattered high based -shra or brief/weak -tsra possible
21z-02z, especially at KCOS, and will add a vcsh mention for
late afternoon/early evening. A period of gusty/erratic outflow
winds is likely at both terminals, with potential gusts in the
35-45 kt range. Winds will trend northerly this evening and
overnight behind a cold front, with periods of gusts to around
25 kts this evening and again 10z-18z Wed morning.

KALS...VFR conditions the next 24 hours. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms will be possible across the San Luis Valley in the
23-01z time period, producing mainly gusty outflow winds but
only light rain/sprinkles. Skies then clear overnight into Wed
morning.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN