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000
FXUS65 KPUB 091723
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1023 AM MST Sat Dec 9 2023

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 428 AM MST Sat Dec 9 2023

Key Messages:

- Snow winding down along the southern I-25 corridor this AM.

- Clearing and cold tonight.

Currently...Locally heavy snow was likely occurring mainly west of I-
25 south of Canon City to the NM border. Other snow showers were
ongoing across N El Paso county. Over the remainder of the fcst area
skies were generally mostly cloudy to cloudy, although clearing was
noted over NE CO and this drier air was progressing southward.

Today...

Snow showers will continue to progress to the southwest this morning,
with the activity gradually ending along the southern I-25 corridor
from north to south. Some of this precip will likely make it into
the San Luis Valley (SLV) and easters slopes of the southern San
Juans. Any accumulations in these regions will be light. The overall
best chance of accumulating snow after sunrise will be over the
southern Sangres west of I-25.

If trends continue with the precip progressing south, will allow the
highlights to expire at their current expiration times. Also, It
appears that the snow is likely not going to push into Baca county,
and may cancel this highlight at 12Z.

By this afternoon, all accum snow will likely be over with, with
just some snow showers occuring across the higher terrain.

Max temps today will be in the 30s and 40s plains and 30s in the
larger valleys. New snow fall will impact max temperatures today.

It will be a chilly day across the plains as northerly winds of of
20 to 30 mph will be widespread across the plains today. Winds along
the I-25 corridor should decrease by mid afternoon.

Tonight...

Cold! Temps will likely fall into the single digits to low 10s
across the plains with temps below zero in the larger valleys and
mtns. Max RH values should remain in the 50-70% range so widespread
fog not likely, but localized fog could occur especially in areas
where we see some melting snow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 428 AM MST Sat Dec 9 2023

Key Messages:

- Seasonably cool west to northwest flow Sunday and Monday.

- More unsettled weather for the mid to late week work week,
  with a lower confidence on precipitation chances and amounts.

Sunday-Monday...Strong northwest flow aloft early Sunday, moderates
and becomes more westerly Sunday night and Monday, as more short
wave energy is progged to translate across the Intermountain West.
Pattern continues to support breezy westerly winds over and near the
higher terrain through the day Sunday, along with breezy gap flow
winds through the mid Arkansas River Valley and southern I-25
Corridor. The strong orographic flow will continue to wring out
waning moisture, with scattered snow showers expected over the
higher peaks across the Central Mtns on Sunday, along with wave
clouds spreading across the I-25 Corridor and eastern Plains through
the afternoon. Clouds and any lasting snow cover could hinder
temperatures on Sunday, especially along and west of the I-25
Corridor, and went with highs slightly cooler than the latest NBM
guidance across these areas. With weak westerly flow and more
sunshine expected on Monday, should see temperatures warming back
to seasonal levels areawide, in the mid 40s to mid 50s across the
lower elevations and in the 30s and 40s across the higher terrain.

Monday night-Saturday...Latest models offer varying solutions of the
location of secondary energy digging down the backside of the
passing Intermountain West wave through the day Tuesday. The latest
run of the Canadian is more in line with the EPS/GEFS/GEPS ensemble
mean, which all develop a cutoff low across the southern Great Basin
on Tuesday, leading to modest southwest flow aloft across the Rockies.
Models do indicate a backdoor cold front moving across eastern Colorado
late Monday night and Tuesday, as surface high pressure builds across
the High Plains, which leads to possible light overrunning precipitation
across the plains on Tuesday. Latest NBM data keeps slight pops across
the higher terrain and the lower eastern slopes and immediate adjacent
plains on Tuesday, along with below seasonal temperatures, which seems
to be a reasonable forecast at this time.

With ensemble data slower and further south with the weakening ejecting
low, which brings increasing available moisture within modest south to
southwest flow aloft through the end of the work week, we did not stray
from the latest NBM data of increasing pop chances, greatest across the
southern mtns and areas south of the Highway 50 Corridor. Latest NBM
data is keeping temperatures around seasonal levels through the end
of the work week, though it does develop wider spreads through this
period.

Currently, Saturday into early next week looks to be drier and warmer
with upper level ridging building in behind the passing cutoff system.
Time will tell.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1022 AM MST Sat Dec 9 2023

KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24
hours. Winds will be gustiest during this afternoon, with winds
lessening overnight and remaining light. Skies will clear throughout
the day and remain mostly clear during this TAF period. Pockets
of mid to high level clouds will increase late morning, especially
for KCOS and KPUB.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...SIMCOE