136
FXUS65 KPUB 241726
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1026 AM MST Fri Jan 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions and mild temperatures are expected for most of today.

- Snow showers develop along the mountains Friday night, with
  dry, but cold, conditions elsewhere for the area.

- Light snow expected over and near the higher terrain with
  cold air in place areawide on Saturday.

- Warmer and drier into to early next week, with the potential
  for precipitation for the middle and end of next week, but a
  low confidence on storm track and amounts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 351 AM MST Fri Jan 24 2025

Today: For the end of the week, relatively quiet weather is expected
for much of south central and southeastern Colorado. A broad and low
amplitude ridge will be pushing over the area, and start
exiting/flattening by mid to late day. With this feature in place,
overall descent will be in place, and given this, dry conditions are
expected throughout the day for the region. The exception to this
may be along the central mountains, where highly isolated light snow
showers may start to blossom as the ridge flattens and westerly flow
develops and orographic forcing starts to rise. Along with that,
breezy westerly to southwesterly winds around 10 to 20 mph are
anticipated for many, with stronger winds along the higher terrain.
Otherwise, mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies are anticipated as
high level clouds stream over the area, with mild temperatures for
most. Speaking of temperatures, Friday will bring a period of warmer
and more seasonable temperatures, as the aforementioned westerly
winds help to warm the region. Given that, the plains will warm into
the mid 40s to low 50s, the valleys will reach into the 30s, and the
mountains will rise into the 20s. With that all said though, Friday
will be another day of downsloping winds vs the heavier cold air
across the plains. If downsloping prevails, the aforementioned
temperatures are expected, but if the colder air holds out, the
warmest temperatures will be closer along the leeward side of the
eastern mountains, with temperatures slightly colder than current
thinking in the lower Arkansas River Valley area.

Tonight: Friday night will remain relatively quiet for much of south
central and southeastern Colorado, with mountain snow showers
returning. The aforementioned broad ridge will flatten out late
Friday day and early Friday evening, with westerly flow prevailing
thereafter. While no major synoptic forcing is expected, orographic
forcing will increase along the mountains, and especially along the
central mountains where flow will be strongest. With the uptick in
orographic forcing, and a modest bump up in moisture, light snow
showers are anticipated to bloom along the mountains Friday evening
and persist through Friday night, with the greatest coverage of
showers along the central mountains. Elsewhere though, dry
conditions are expected, though a snow shower pushing across the
upper Arkansas River Valley can`t be ruled out. Beyond all of that,
relatively light winds are expected, with mid to high level clouds
increasing with the modest moisture streaming over the area. Along
with that, a backdoor cold front will push southward early Friday
evening. While this front will have more of local influence
Saturday, it will usher in colder air and low to mid level clouds
during this period, especially for the plains. In addition, it may
help develop flurries to very light snow along the Palmer Divide
late Friday night into early Saturday morning given northerly winds
upsloping into this localized area. Looking at temperatures, a cold
night is anticipated thanks to the cold front passage, with much of
the are falling to around and about 5F below seasonal values. Given
that, the plains will sink into the low to mid 10s, with the valleys
and mountains dropping into the single digits to low 10s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 352 AM MST Fri Jan 24 2025

Saturday-Sunday...Latest model data is in good agreement of a broad
upper trough digging across the Northern Tier through the day Friday,
before splitting Friday night and Saturday. One piece of the system
continues to translate east across the Upper Midwest and into the
Upper Great Lakes, while the trailing energy digs across the
Intermountain West and Great Basin and eventually develops a closed
upper low across central California through the day Sunday. With
that said, the best moisture, uvv and snow potential with the passing
system stays north of south central and southeast Colorado on Saturday.
However, will continue to see cold air moving into the region Saturday
morning, with stratus filling in behind a backdoor cold front associated
with a cold Canadian surface high pressure system building across the
Northern High Plains. The combination of cold low level east to
southeast upslope, and weak mid level waa within south to southwest
H7 flow will develop light snowfall over and near the higher terrain
through the day Saturday, with accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, greatest
across the higher terrain of the Central Mtns, and the eastern slopes
of the Rampart Range and Wet Mtns. Highs on Saturday will be well
below seasonal levels with mainly 20s across the plains, and mainly
in the teens and 20s across the higher terrain, save for 30s in
the San Luis Valley. Drier and warmer conditions are on tap for
Sunday, as upper level ridging builds into the Rockies, however the
westerly flow aloft will keep chances of snow showers along and west
of the ContDvd.

Monday-Thursday...Drier and warmer weather continues for Monday into
Tuesday with upper level ridging giving way to increasing southerly
flow through the middle of the work week, as the California upper low
starts to move south and east into the Desert Southwest. There continues
to be run to run differences on the track of this system, leading to low
confidence of precipitation timing and amounts spreading into the Rockies
later in the work week. Time will tell.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1021 AM MST Fri Jan 24 2025

KCOS and KPUB...

VFR into the early AM hours. Another modified arctic front will
cross KCOS and KPUB during the 08-10 UTC time frame and this
will quickly bring lower cigs and lower vis due to fog. and
these IFR conditions will last through the remainder of the taf
fcst.

KALS...

KALS will be VFR with light winds through the fcst period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SIMCOE
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH