Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 121118

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
518 AM MDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Issued at 518 AM MDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Refreshed/updated grids/zones to reflect latest observations/etc.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 459 AM MDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Other than some low-grade pops over portions of the Continental
Divide and far southeastern plains at times into tonight, still
project that tranquil conditions in combination with near seasonal
temperatures and low-grade winds should be noted over the
majority of the forecast district through tonight. In addition,
recent obs/satellite data...etc. indicate that areas of low
clouds/fog also possible this morning over portions of the San
Luis Valley.

Recent computer simulations, forecast model soundings and
PV/Precipitable water analysis indicate that a passing weak upper
impulse will trigger a few light showers over select higher
locations and possibly the far southeastern plains from later
today into tonight, while the remainder of the forecast district
should experience dry conditions in combination with maximum and
minimum temperatures a few degrees warmer than noted during the
previous 24 hours.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 459 AM MDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Initially, dry conditions are anticipated over the forecast
district from Tuesday into Wednesday morning as upper ridging
traverses the region. In addition, warmer temperatures are
expected to return to southern Colorado Wednesday.

Then, latest PV/Precipitable water analysis, forecast model
soundings and computers suggest that a more active southwesterly
upper flow pattern(with passing upper disturbances) develops over
the CWA from later Wednesday into the weekend with primary
meteorological issues during this time-frame being pops(favoring
Continental Divide locations from later Wednesday into Thursday
and then higher and northern locations from later Saturday into
at least Sunday), temperatures and and gusty winds/elevated fire
weather conditions at times(especially from Thursday into at

Regarding fire weather, it still appears that near critical to
critical fire weather conditions will be possible at times over
primarily eastern sections of the forecast district from Thursday
into at least this weekend.

Also, the highest potential for stronger gradient winds over many
sections of the forecast district during the longer term should
be realized from Wednesday evening into Thursday morning and
especially from Sunday into Sunday night(where winds
nearing/possibly exceeding high wind criteria not out of the

Finally, coolest maximum and minimum temperatures during the
longer term should be noted over the majority of the forecast
district from Tuesday into Wednesday morning and then again by
next Sunday, while warmest temperatures are projected Wednesday
and Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 449 AM MDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Other than some low clouds/fog this morning over KALS, anticipate
that generally dry northwesterly flow aloft will allow VFR
conditions to be noted over the KCOS and KPUB taf sites during the
next 24 hours as well as over KALS from later today into tonight.





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