143
FXUS61 KBGM 130811
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
411 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Clouds will decrease tonight with cool conditions and patchy
fog developing. Warmer temperatures are expected Monday, however
a warm front will push through the area and kick off afternoon
scattered showers and thunderstorms. An upper level low moves
over the region Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday with more
periods of rain possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
130 AM Update

Valley fog is forming across the Chemung basin valleys and will
spread east into the Susquehanna river valley during the next
several hours...added this into the forecast. Otherwise, tweaked
the timing of PoPs coming in today, tonight and especially on
Tuesday. The latest guidance is keeping most of Tuesday morning
and perhaps early afternoon dry for our area...in between the
warm front over northern NY State and the next wave coming up
from the the Mid-Atlantic. Will continue to monitor trends in
the guidance for this scenario. With more dry time and morning
sunshine, did bump up high temperatures on Tuesday into the
mid-70s...this is also aided by southwest winds 7-15 mph.

Previous Discussion Below

Clearing is continuing heading into the late evening hours. A
few locations have already gone from clear to fog in a short
window and more valley locations should see fog formation
overnight.

Slow clearing will continue throughout the evening with the loss
of daytime heating. However, kept shower chances around in the
Finger Lakes and Southern Tier of NY later into the evening
with the latest update.


320 PM Update

Upper level low pressure continues pushing eastward this
afternoon and this evening, allowing for drier condition to
prevail. Partly cloudy skies are expected for much of tonight
as weak high pressure briefly pushes in. The clearing skies and
light winds should allow for some patchy fog to form, however
clouds will start to increase again by early Monday morning,
which could dissipate fog before sunrise.

A slow moving warm front will push east over the region on
tomorrow. Along this front there will be a period of rain
showers in the morning to early afternoon hours; with more
coverage of showers the further north in Central NY and in the
Finger Lakes Region. NE PA and into the Catskills should stay
mostly dry with perhaps an isolated shower. By tomorrow afternoon,
the warm front should push north of the region. Temperatures
will be much warmer tomorrow with clearing behind the front.
However, some weak instability will develop with some sunshine
peaking through during the after early evening hours. This
will could be enough for a few thunderstorms to develop late in
the day generally from the Southern Tier on northward. Outside
of any showers and thunderstorms, it will be partly sunny with
highs ranging from the low to mid-70s west of I-81, with
mid-60s to around 70 east. After sunset, shower and
thunderstorms will start to decrease in coverage with chances
only possible across the far north in the vicinity of the warm
front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
405 AM Update...

A slow-moving system moving extending a weak warm front across
the Finger Lakes and Central NY region Wednesday will continue
to supply mostly cloudy and showery conditions through
Wednesday. As the main core of this system continues moving
east, weak ridging behind this system could possibly give brief
drier period, or very light showers, overnight Wednesday and
into Thursday. Though, most models give consensus of some very
light rain showers continuing in mainly Central NY through
Thursday. Additionally, with the weak frontal boundary over
Central NY, there are chances for afternoon through evening
thunderstorms Wednesday. With the weak warm from extending up
to northern Central NY, we`ll see a slight warming trend of
temperatures increasing into the low- to mid-70s for Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
405 AM Update...

The next system makes its way into the forecast area Friday,
bringing back steadier rain showers across Central NY and
Northeastern PA. Although long-term guidance can be a bit
unreliable this far out in time, there`s a little bit of
consensus for ridging to build behind the aforementioned system
on Sunday, allowing the possibility of drier conditions for
Sunday. Each model has variability in the strength of the
ridging, leading to different possibilities of when rain showers
end and start again, and the intensity. Overall, the rather
overcast and showery pattern continues with the possibility of a
brief break on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
135 AM Update

VFR expected for most sites, except ELM and AVP over the next
24 hours.

Currently there are scattered VFR mid level clouds over Central
NY, with bases around 050ft, then a lower, MVFR/Fuel ALT cloud
deck is INVOF AVP, with bases between 010-025ft. This general
scenario will continue through around daybreak. Valley fog has
settled into ELM, with VSBYS 1/4SM to 1SM likely to continue
until 12-13z, when the fog will lift and scatter out here.

Later today there will be a band of mid level VFR clouds rolling
through along with some scattered showers as a warm front
progresses north/east. This will mainly be between 14-19z...with
some clearing after this. Instability builds late this afternoon
and additional scattered showers will pop up, along with
isolated thunderstorms. Not enough confidence in coverage or
locations of any t`storms to mention in the TAFs at this time.

Later this evening, the warm front lift well off to the north
with just a few mid and high level clouds around, and VFR
conditions continuing areawide.

Winds are light and variable under 5 kts this morning. By this
afternoon winds turn south to southwest at 7-15 kts.

Outlook...

Monday night through Tuesday Morning...Mainly VFR expected.
Moderate to high confidence.

Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday...Periods of rain and
possible embedded thunderstorms look to bring widespread MVFR
restrictions. Periodic IFR also possible at some sites. Moderate
to high confidence

Thursday through Friday...Becoming VFR as a ridge of high
pressure moves overhead. Moderate confidence.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK/MJM/MWG
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...MJM/TAC