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000
FXUS61 KBGM 231848
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
248 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching storm system will bring gusty winds and
increasing clouds to the area this evening. Rain showers will
increase overnight through Wednesday morning, with cooler
weather moving in Wednesday and Wednesday night. Warmer and
drier conditions will return for the end of the week, but more
rain is on the way for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
245 PM Update...

Satellite imagery shows increasing high clouds moving into CNY,
while lower clouds and scattered showers extend across the
Ontario Peninsula into the Midwest states. Some radar returns
are also noted around Rochester, but with drier air prevalent in
the low levels (note 30-40 degree sfc dewpoint depressions),
this is almost certainly virga.

So the the overall forecast thinking is mostly unchanged. Light
showers currently over Ontario will work into the western
Finger Lakes around or shortly after sunset this evening, but
will tend to weaken as they head east of I-81. Additional
showers will overspread the region after midnight into Wednesday
morning, still favoring CNY over NEPA. Shower activity will
diminish towards midday, with a dry end to the day.

In the meantime, we`ll still have some gusty winds to contend
with through around sunset, though overall gusts appear to be
peaking now in the 25 to 29 knot range. RH values have dropped
deep into the 20-25% range, and SPS statements for fire weather
will continue through dusk.

Temperature-wise, kept the last update intact as SYR is on the
cusp of 70, and ELM not far behind. It`ll be cooler tomorrow
with highs in the upper-40s and lower-50s across CNY, with 50s
over much of NEPA, but near 60 in the Wyoming Valley.

A cooler airmass, coupled with ideal conditions for radiational
cooling Wed night will drop lows into the lower to middle 20s
area-wide.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM update...

A quiet period is in store as the upper level trough slowly begins
to lift out of our region Wednesday night with high pressure
building in at the surface. As a result clear skies and light
winds will embrace the region Wednesday night. Cooler air mass
remains in place with lows falling into the mid 20s to low 30s
with the help of radiational cooling. Similar pattern continues
into Thursday with quiet and cool conditions expected under
northerly flow. Highs are expected to climb into the 50s
Thursday afternoon with plenty of sunshine. Another cool and
clear night is expected Thursday with lows ranging in the low to
mid 30s across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
330 AM update...

Large scale upper level ridging moves in on Friday with quiet and
dry conditions expected to continue. Southerly flow returns
with temperatures beginning to climb back into the 60s once
again. Meanwhile a deep low pressure system moves into the upper
midwest Friday night into Saturday morning with a warm front
expanding from the Great Lakes through the Carolinas. We begin
to see the impacts of this system early Saturday morning with
the increasing chance of rain showers over our region. Behind
this front a warming trend establishes especially on Sunday with
temperatures expected to soar into the low to mid 70s. This
warm and unstable air mass may kick off some scattered afternoon
showers and thunderstorms. Overall the upper level ridge
continues to reign during this period with a few disturbances
moving through from Sunday into Monday. Pattern begins to break
sometime Tuesday with an upper trough pushes back in.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions with increasing high clouds are expected through
the afternoon hours. Mid-clouds and a few showers will try to
sneak into western terminals around or shortly after 00Z, but
restrictions are not expected until after 06Z. MVFR ceilings
will prevail for most of the late night hours, slipping into
fuel alternate around dawn as NW flow moves in. BGM and ITH have
a good chance of seeing at least brief IFR ceilings Tue morning.

South to SSW winds will remain gusty for the next few hours,
generally peaking 25 to 28 knots, though the odd 30 knot gust
can`t be ruled out. Winds will diminish quickly after sunset.

Outlook...
Wednesday thru Wednesday night...Occasional restrictions
possible in rain showers.

Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR.

Saturday...Restrictions possible in rain showers, especially in
the afternoon and evening.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...MPH
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...AJG/MPH