Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
000
FXUS65 KBYZ 191542
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
942 AM MDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.UPDATE...
Only changes for the morning update were to increase winds over
KSHR and SE MT based on obs and soundings...and to remove morning
fog over KBHK. HRRR was going dry into the evening, but cannot
rule out some mountain showers in the SW due to difluence aloft.
Temperatures were on track based on mixdowns. Arthur

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Fri...

Satellite imagery shows ridge axis over eastern MT with a deep low
moving from CA into the southern Great Basin. High clouds are
spreading into our cwa from the southwest. Area of fog in
northeast MT is advecting to the southwest along the Yellowstone
River, but do not think it will make it to Miles City by sunrise.
Baker`s dew point depression is down to zero, and we could see
some valley fog in our far east over the next few hours.

Quiet weather with seasonable temperatures are expected the next
two days. Southwest CONUS low will move through the central
Rockies Friday and Friday night. This track will almost entirely
miss us, but we could see some light rain showers eke into
Sheridan County and far southeast MT by tomorrow. Otherwise we
will see periods of mid and high clouds, easterly winds and high
temps in the 50s to lower 60s...perhaps mid 60s in our west by
Friday.

JKL

.LONG TERM...valid for Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...

Somewhat active long term forecast period expected, though
outside of a weather system Monday into Tuesday, mostly dry
conditions are expected.

A warm afternoon is anticipated Saturday ahead of a cold front as
good downslope gradients and southwest flow moves into the region
ahead of a cold front. Expect temperatures in the upper 60s to mid
70s across the region. Not a whole lot precipitation is possible
along this front but can`t rule out some isolated showers over the
mountains and in and west of Billings/Roundup through the
afternoon. Cooler temperatures move in Sunday with highs down into
the low 60s.

A disturbance will begin to moving into western Montana Monday
morning with rain showers overspreading the region through the
day. Still plenty of uncertainty with this system but model trends
have been upward trend for precipitation amounts. Can`t rule out
the possibility of additional snow Monday night as well, but for
now, the heaviest precipitation looks to fall through the daylight
hours as rain. This system moves out of the region early Tuesday
morning leaving much cooler temperatures in the region for the
afternoon. Model spread quickly grows into next Wednesday and
Thursday with the GFS keeping an active and cooler pattern in
place while the Euro solution brings warmer and drier conditions
back into the region. Dobbs
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. East and
southeast winds prevail through the day, bringing 25 knot gusts
to KMLS and KSHR through this afternoon. AAG/ Dobbs

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060 037/061 037/072 036/061 037/048 031/060 034/064
    0/E 11/B    00/U    20/B    35/W    21/U    12/W
LVM 055 031/062 033/075 033/062 034/048 026/059 031/062
    0/E 10/U    01/U    21/B    46/W    21/U    23/W
HDN 062 036/060 034/073 034/062 035/052 030/061 030/065
    0/E 11/B    10/U    10/B    35/W    31/U    12/W
MLS 061 038/059 035/071 036/060 035/053 031/058 032/063
    0/B 01/B    10/U    10/B    24/W    20/U    00/B
4BQ 058 037/054 035/069 035/059 037/051 030/056 030/062
    0/B 12/W    20/U    10/B    26/W    31/B    01/B
BHK 055 034/051 035/066 037/056 036/050 030/053 031/058
    0/B 01/E    10/B    10/B    15/W    30/U    00/B
SHR 061 035/055 032/072 033/063 035/051 028/059 029/065
    0/B 12/W    20/U    10/B    25/W    31/U    12/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.