Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 131609
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
1009 AM MDT Fri Apr 13 2018

.UPDATE...

Although the snow did not materialize much at all in the city of
Billings, several inches of accumulation were not too far away.
Molt received 2 inches and Broadview 4 inches. Officially, the
airport received .4 inches as of 9am which ties the snowfall
record for the season at 103.5". Radar and surface observations
show light snow across most of the forecast area with some
embedded moderate snow at times. However, very little if any
accumulation is expected for the remainder of the day from
Billings westward. In addition, there was even some freezing rain
earlier this morning around the Baker area and other locations
across the far east due to some warm air aloft and temperatures
below freezing at the surface. The snow will be ending from west
to east today as the upper low responsible will move out into the
central plains. We will continue with all the remaining advisories
and warnings through the remainder of the this morning but these
will probably be able to cancelled ahead of time later this
afternoon. Hooley

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Sat...

As the snow is starting to move to the east, the radar is starting
to show the precip shifting to the east. This trend will continue
through the day with snow and rain ending from west to east. Given
that the western zones, including the mountains have seen most,
if not all of the accumulating snowfall, have cancelled the
warning for the Beartooth/Absaroka and Crazy Mountains and the
advisories from for the from Red Lodge west. The webcam in Judith
Gap shows some decent snowfall still falling and given the better
returns across the northern tier will continue the warning for
today. Given that the east will still see snow through much of the
day and afternoon those highlights will continue as well.

By this evening expect all of the precip to move out of the area.
Overnight, given how much precip has fallen and the calm, cold
night expect, have patchy fog in the grids from Roundup, Billings
and Sheridan east. By Saturday some ridging will be building into
the area. Even with this ridging, there will be a weak wave moving
through the flow that could bring a chance for some precip, mainly
in the western zones. With the ridge building in expect
temperatures to warm back up into the 50s for much of the area.
Reimer

.LONG TERM...valid for Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...Thu...

Ridge axis shifts east allowing for southwest flow aloft and a
warming trend Sunday and Monday. Cannot rule out a few showers
in our west with diurnal heating Sunday afternoon and evening.
Temps should climb toward 60F Sunday and well into the 60s to
near 70F Monday, which could be the warmest day yet of 2018.

Ridge will break down as a Pacific trof moves inland late Monday
through Tuesday. Initially, we could see a few thunderstorms in
our west with the late day fropa. Then, a good chance of showers
from west to east Monday night and Tuesday. For the most part, the
Pacific air will stay warm enough for precip type at lower
elevations to stay rain, but cannot rule out some brief wet snow
in our north and east. Mountains will pick up some snowfall.
Bigger issue with this shortwave could be post-frontal wind.
Though there are model differences here, we should see mixing into
fairly strong mid level W-NW winds, at least across the western
half of our cwa. Have upped winds in our grids to show gusts in
excess of 45 mph. Temps on Tuesday will take a step down with
highs in the mid 40s to around 50F.

Ridge builds back in for quieter weather, with still below normal
temps, on Wednesday. By Thursday and Friday we may see impacts
from the next Pacific trof as it moves into the central Rockies.
This has potential to be an upslope event for us, but there is
high model spread regarding whether this trof will impact us or
stay to our south. Expect temps to stay a little below normal to
end the work week.

JKL

&&

.AVIATION...

Snow along and east of a K3HT-KBIL-KSHR line will continue this
morning, then diminish from west to east through the afternoon.
Expect local MVFR-LIFR conditions, poorest in the east near KMLS-
KBHK. Mountains will be frequently obscured. VFR will prevail
tonight with the exception of where fog forms, which is most
likely to occur from KBIL eastward. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 039 028/051 033/060 037/066 036/048 031/050 029/051
    4/O 01/B    11/B    11/B    42/W    21/N    11/B
LVM 042 026/051 032/059 035/060 031/045 026/050 025/049
    3/O 13/R    23/W    13/T    53/W    21/N    13/W
HDN 039 024/052 030/060 033/068 034/048 028/049 027/052
    6/O 00/B    11/B    11/B    32/W    21/B    11/B
MLS 035 019/045 029/055 033/060 035/047 030/046 028/050
    9/S 01/B    10/B    10/U    23/W    21/N    11/B
4BQ 034 020/046 028/056 033/065 037/048 029/047 027/050
    +/S 10/B    00/B    00/U    23/W    21/N    11/B
BHK 032 013/039 023/045 028/050 032/045 029/043 025/046
    +/S 00/U    10/U    00/N    24/W    21/N    11/B
SHR 036 023/051 029/063 032/070 035/048 028/050 026/052
    8/S 20/B    10/B    00/B    22/W    20/N    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Winter Storm Warning in effect until 6 PM MDT this evening
      FOR ZONES 28>33-37-42-63.
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 6 PM MDT this evening
      FOR ZONES 36-38-58.
WY...Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 6 PM MDT this evening
      FOR ZONES 98-99.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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