Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 252353

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
553 PM MDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 351 PM MDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Dry northwest flow settled over the area in the past 24 hours
which brought sunny skies and mild temperatures today. Lows
tonight will be chilly, but not as cold as last night, as there
won`t be any cloud cover to inhibit radiational cooling. Expect
another cloud free day on Thursday as the ridge to the west
amplifies in response to a deepening low pressure system over the
eastern Pacific. Unfettered sunshine will keep temperatures mild
in spite of northerly flow aloft with highs on Thursday afternoon
running 5 degrees or more above seasonal norms for most locations.
Look for for mostly clear skies again on Wednesday night as the
ridge shifts overhead resulting in another cool night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 351 PM MDT Wed Apr 25 2018

The upper level ridge axis will be passing overhead Thursday
night and Friday with scattered convection developing Friday
afternoon. Convection will be confined to the higher elevations
and looks to be more dry than wet underneath this ridge.

Southwest flow strengthens Saturday with shortwave energy working
northeast out of the Great Basin and into the Four Corners area.
This will bring an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms
by Saturday afternoon. Confidence is still not high though as the
models continue to offer differing solutions with timing and
strength, likely influenced by a deeper upper low that will be
pushing into the Pacific Northwest. The new GFS model run is
tracking this low across central Idaho and across Montana with
drier westerly flow sweeping over our area for Sunday and Monday.
More energy then fills into the Great Basin Monday night and
Tuesday with unsettled weather returning to the region.

Temperatures will be running on the warm side of normal for much
of this period with slight cooling Monday and Tuesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 551 PM MDT Wed Apr 25 2018

High pressure will keep the weather quiet with no impacts expected
over the next 24 hours. VFR conditions will prevail at all
terminals with light winds and a few high clouds.




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