745
FXUS64 KHUN 180222
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
922 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight)
Issued at 923 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

There are still some radar returns showing up this evening for
areas of light rain. This will continue overnight under overcast
skies which will only allow low temps to drop into the low to mid
60s areawide. There is potential for dense fog to develop tonight
into tomorrow morning with the moist airmass in place and light
winds but confidence remains low overall with aforementioned cloud
cover in place. Chances for fog remain higher across eastern
zones. Early tomorrow morning (5 AM to 7 AM) hi-res models are
picking up on an area of storms moving into northwest Alabama from
MS and SPC has included a marginal risk for storms right up
against the MS/AL border. There remains instability in place
overnight between 500-1000 J/kg along with 35-45 kts of 0-6 km
shear. This could allow for one or two cells to remain strong as
they enter into the NW corner of AL with wind and hail being the
main concerns. This area of storms is expected to weaken through
mid- morning as it progressed eastward across northern AL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Shower/storm chances will be highest during the day on Saturday as
the upper trough axis pivots across the local area. SPC has placed
the entire area in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for strong to
severe storms on Saturday, mainly in the afternoon. There may be a
few hours where there is a favorable overlap between instability
and shear, although the best shear will be displaced to our south.
Marginally severe wind and hail will be the primary concern with
these storms with CAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg, but still a
low confidence forecast depending on the nature of convection
father to our south that could block us from better moisture
advection, much like today. Something to be aware of, especially
if spending time outdoors. Afternoon highs will reach the upper
70s/lower 80s with light westerly/northwesterly winds.

This activity should come to an end from west to east tomorrow
night. Dense fog may become a threat once again tomorrow night
with light winds and clearing skies. Upper ridging will settle
over the local area for the remainder of the short term forecast,
resulting in dry and warm conditions. Highs will reach the mid to
upper 80s Sunday and Monday with overnight lows in the lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Thursday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Dry and warm conditions will continue into Tuesday, and thanks to a
flow rounding a surface ridge along the east coast. After a mild
night with lows in the lower 60s, highs on Monday should rise into
the mid 80s under mostly sunny skies. This trend should continue on
Tuesday with highs nearing 90 degrees in a few places. Lows in the
mid 60s Mon night should range in the upper 60s to near 70 Tue night.

A storm system forecast to form over the Rockies and adjacent High
Plains over the weekend will head to the NE, reaching the Great
Lakes on Wednesday. A cold front trailing south of it will move
across the area on Wed. Moisture convergence and lift preceding it
will return medium chances (30-50%) of showers and thunderstorms
beginning Tue night. Unsettled weather with scattered showers and
thunderstorms will remain in the forecast into Thursday. Overall
storm strength should remain "general" with a risk of strong outflow
wind gusts, heavy downpours, and sudden and/or frequent lightning.
Even with more clouds and rain chances, high temperatures on Wed/Thu
should range in the mid/upper 80s, and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 509 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Ceilings will remain below 030agl (MVFR) over most areas through
05-06Z before lowering below 010agl (IFR), and in some areas below
005agl (LIFR), along with scattered -SHRA or DZ at times. The
lowest ceilings are most likely to occur in northwest AL including
KMSL, but has a medium chance at KHSV so future amendments are
possible. Ceilings are forecast to lift to or above 030agl (IFR)
by 17-19Z. Daytime heating and an approaching upper level system
will produce scattered to numerous SHRA and TSRA. A few +SHRA or
+TSRA are possible, with small hail and gusty winds. Have included
VCTS at this time as timing is uncertain at either TAF location.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KG
SHORT TERM....25
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...17