Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 301026
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
526 AM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

...updated aviation section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

A high surface pressure airmass has moved from the southern Canadian
provinces into the Red River region of the Dakotas and Minnesota in
the last 24 hours, driving a surface cold front to the Kansas
Nebraska line. This front is forecast to lift north as a warm front
this afternoon as the airmass begins to heat up this morning.
Already very warm overnight is in progress with temperatures in the
mid 70s, which with no cloud cover, should bounce into the 80s by
mid morning. Although hot temperatures are expected by afternoon,
the thresholds for heat advisory`s are not likely to be reached.
Looking at yesterday, apparent temperatures (heat indices in this
summer case) were limited to around 100-103 degrees over portions of
Barber county, and actually fell across the highway 183 corridor
with insufficient dew points to increase an apparent temp. The
consensus of the raw model output today seems to capture a better
high temperature grid forecast than the NBM, and we`ll go with that.

Tonight will be another warm overnight. Any widely scattered cu in
that develops will dissipate quickly around sunset. Our region will
remain under the influence of the upper ridging while an mcs is
likely to be driven southeast through the Missouri along the surface
boundary through the eastern NE/srn IA and northern MO area. A weak
surface low may develop over Kansas as the surface front begins
making it`s way into the state overnight and early Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

The various CAMS in the HREF suite are showing reasonable
expectation for a few thunderstorms  developing g and the surface
boundary in south central Kansas Sunday afternoon. With respectable
1000-1600 j/kg CAPE owing to a hot airmass and low 60s dew points,
but overall lack of shear, the severe opportunity looks limited, but
not zero. Any storms that might be sustained along the front may
produce marginal strong wind gusts. Again, the trend for dew point
owing  to lower values ahead of the front might limit ability to
reach the criteria for heat advisory before being taken over by the
front with slightly cooler temperatures late in the day. HOwever so
far, with better shear much farther east, our area of Kansas is only
under a general thunderstorm outlook. The front will continue to
move south , allowing moisture to pool ahead of it westward in an
upslope regime. Several models trend toward this new instability axis
being a zone for Colorado convection to feed off into the overnight
and early Sunday, with additional chance pops in the subsequent
periods beyond. The post frontal airmass will relegate the
temperatures to the 80s and through the week for afternoon highs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 523 AM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

Latest Nighttime microphysics satellite composite is showing some
blowoff cirrus coming form the east over eastern KS, and more
significantly an area of expanding low stratus along the KS/NE
line and extending northward, centered around KHDE. The good this
is that the GFSLamp cloud ceiling forecast erodes this away,
without any southward expansion at all though 15z. We will see
light south winds early becoming gusty upwards of 20 knots
starting at around noon, with widely scattered cu possible though
the end of the daylight hours. We do not anticipate any
restrictions to visibility this morning.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  98  72  97  66 /   0   0  10  50
GCK  97  69  93  64 /   0   0  10  50
EHA  96  69  95  64 /   0   0  10  70
LBL  98  70  98  66 /   0   0  10  60
HYS 100  74  92  66 /   0   0  10  30
P28  99  75 102  70 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM...MR
AVIATION...Russell


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