Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
000
FXUS63 KDDC 290438
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1138 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong southwest winds Thursday afternoon will produce an
  elevated risk of wildfire danger.

- Friday will be one of the nicest days of the year, with
  sunshine, 70s and light winds.

- A beautiful Easter weekend is expected, with unseasonably warm
  temperatures near 80 Easter afternoon.

- A cold front will bring a chance of rain showers late Monday
  and early Tuesday, followed by much cooler air Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

Broad midlevel ridging was building over the plains at midday,
with infrared satellite depicting scattered cirrus embedded in
the WNWly flow aloft. As expected, strong warming was underway,
and with the help of strong mixing and strong south/southwest
winds, temperatures will soar this afternoon into the lower 70s.
Midlevel flow trending zonal this afternoon will deepen a lee
cyclone to near 1000 mb east of Denver by 7 pm. South winds will
respond, with a mslp gradient of about 8 mb across the CWA
supporting a traditional SW KS windy day. Winds aloft available
to mix are not impressive, and gusts are expected to remain
below 40 mph.

South winds will remain elevated and gusty after sunset, with a
strong low level jet expected overnight. 12z NAM progs 850 mb
winds near 2k ft agl near 60 mph at DDC at midnight, which will
keep the boundary layer mixed and winds elevated. Radiational
cooling will be much weaker tonight compared to previous nights,
with many locations holding in the 40s through sunrise Friday.

Friday promises to be one of the nicest days of the year, with an
abundance of sunshine, light and variable winds, and comfortable
temperatures.  A very weak frontal boundary/wind shift line will
sag southward across SW KS through Friday, with a light SWly
wind slowly trending to light northerly by late afternoon. The
air mass south of this boundary will be very warm, and westerly
downslope compression ahead of the boundary will send
temperatures soaring to the 78-82 range south of US 50. Lower
70s are expected across northern zones. With the boundary in the
vicinity, pressure gradients will be weak, with winds remaining
below 20 mph.

The weak cold front will progress south early Saturday, with
winds trending light NEly. Cool advection is expected to be
very modest, with many locations holding above freezing in the
30s Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024

A splendid spring Saturday will be enjoyed behind the weak cold
front, with light easterly wind components shaving temperatures
back to the 60s at most locations. The weak frontal boundary is
consistently forecast by models to either wash out or return
rapidly northward Sunday, as SWly flow strengthens through the
depth of the atmosphere, and lee cyclogenesis is centered near
NW KS. Unseasonably warm temperatures will result Easter Sunday
afternoon, with 850 mb temperatures of 20-22C supporting 5 pm
temperatures near 80. With strong downslope over the
increasingly dry topsoils, some locations are expected to
achieve mid 80s, probably the preferred Red Hills region
southeast of DDC. EPS (ECMWF ensemble members) probability of
2m T > 80 continues to grow, now up to 90% across much of SW KS.
Records for March 31 are in the lower 90s which are expected to
be out of reach. Southwest winds will be strong Easter, gusting
to at least near 40 mph, and increased wind grids to the 90%ile
of the NBM.

April will start off with a cold front and increasing north
winds on Monday, as the associated positively tilted longwave
trough makes progress onto the plains. Models are trending
faster and colder with this frontal passage, with global models
showing a non-diurnal temperature curve downward on Monday.
North winds will almost be certainly stronger than guidance in
the cold advection environment, with 850 mb winds as high as
50 mph suggesting gusts of at least that caliber. Again,
increased winds to the 90%ile of the NBM.

Regarding precipitation prospects Monday and Tuesday, the
positively tilted, progressive nature of the trough always
works against significant rain/snow generation in SW KS during
the cool season. 12z GFS and its GEFS members show a closed
cyclone intensifying as it crosses Kansas Monday, with showers
most probable Monday afternoon. 12z EPS ensembles also continue
to show probability of QPF > 0.10 inch at a healthy 60-70%,
favoring southern zones. New 12z ECMWF is drier than its
previous runs, with showers favoring southern zones. So am
confident there will be showers or rain and/or snow as the
trough axis passes late Monday through early Tuesday, but also
confident amounts will be limited, and not the beneficial
widespread moisture that we need. Along these lines, the latest
iteration of NBM pops ticked upward this cycle, into the low end
chance category late Monday and early Tuesday. This lines up
with 12z MEX guidance, but we can`t have high hopes with a
progressive, fast moving trough in SW KS. Global models do show
850 mb temperatures cooling to near
-2C early Tuesday, so some snow showers are possible. A light
freeze is probable Tuesday morning, with cooler 50s Tuesday
afternoon.

Another rapid warming trend, with more dry weather, is expected
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024


Patchy high thin cirrus over the HYS area will be moving
through early in this TAF with completely clear conditions
elsewhere. We do not see any model signals for fog development
Tonight. By the post 12z timeframe, a cold front will be moving
southward past DDC by noon, with lighter north winds replacing
the gusty southerly winds. In the meantime, look for significant
wind shear in the lowest 2000 feet up to around 55 knots as the
cold front replaces the strong southeasterly low level jet
overnight.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...99


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.