904
FXUS61 KBGM 131047
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
647 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer temperatures are expected today, however a warm front will
push through the area and kick off scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms. An upper level low then moves over the region Tuesday
afternoon and Wednesday with additional periods of rain expected.
High pressure moves in with generally dry and warm weather to round
out the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
640 AM Update

Increased cloud cover and fog coverage through about 9-10 AM
this morning, before it scatters out and lifts. Otherwise, minor
tweaks to PoPs based on the latest cams, especially the 09z
HRRR. No other significant changes at this time.

420 AM Update

Low clouds and patchy fog will gradually burn off by the mid-
morning hours today. A weak warm frontal boundary could bring a
few showers to west-central NY by the late morning hours. The
highest chances for more scattered showers appears to be across
the Finger Lakes, Syracuse metro and Mohawk Valley areas...closer
to the frontal forcing. Outside of a stray shower or sprinkle
NE PA is expected to remain dry of the day. The NY southern tier
will be on the borderline between the drier weather to the south
and more extensive shower activity north; but overall it is trending
drier until the afternoon hours here. Instability is initially
very low, but as the warm front progresses north/east up to 750
J/Kg of SBCAPE could develop over the Finger Lakes and Central
Southern Tier regions by late afternoon. Overall, moisture and
lift will be lacking (i.e. marginal) but a few isolated t`storms
could kick off into the early evening hours. Temperatures
eventually warm up into the mid-60s(east) to mid-70s(west) by
late afternoon, after the warm front moves through.

The warm front continues to head northward, up into far northern NY
overnight. A few showers or t`storms may linger along and north of I-
90 into the overnight period, before completely lifting north of our
forecast area during the predawn hours Tuesday. It will be mild,
with lows in the upper 40s to mid-50s for most locations.

Tuesday is trending drier in the latest guidance, especially the
morning and early afternoon hours. It should start off dry and
partly to mostly sunny in the morning...again with the warm front
well off to our north. The mid/upper level low will still be way
back, centered in Illinois through the morning hours. A spoke of
moisture along a quasi-warm frontal boundary will eventually
approach our area from the Mid-Atlantic later in the day.

The question is, will any additional showers and thunderstorms be
able to initiate in the fairly warm, moist and unstable air mass in
place over the region late Tuesday morning and afternoon...even with
out much of a lifting mechanism initially. The latest NAM and GFS do
show at least scattered thunderstorms develop over the area in the
afternoon...while the 00z ECMWF keeps it largely dry, with a bit
more in the way of an upper level ridge in place just to our east.

Heading into the early evening hours the aforementioned frontal wave
over the Mid-Atlantic is progged to move north into our forecast
area...with increasing chances for rain and some thunderstorms.
Temperatures are trending up on Tuesday, with more morning/early
afternoon sunshine possible; highs are now forecast to reach at
least the low to mid-70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
405 AM Update...

A slow-moving system moving extending a weak warm front across
the Finger Lakes and Central NY region Wednesday will continue
to supply mostly cloudy and showery conditions through
Wednesday. As the main core of this system continues moving
east, weak ridging behind this system could possibly give brief
drier period, or very light showers, overnight Wednesday and
into Thursday. Though, most models give consensus of some very
light rain showers continuing in mainly Central NY through
Thursday. Additionally, with the weak frontal boundary over
Central NY, there are chances for afternoon through evening
thunderstorms Wednesday. With the weak warm from extending up
to northern Central NY, we`ll see a slight warming trend of
temperatures increasing into the low- to mid-70s for Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
405 AM Update...

The next system makes its way into the forecast area Friday,
bringing back steadier rain showers across Central NY and
Northeastern PA. Although long-term guidance can be a bit
unreliable this far out in time, there`s a little bit of
consensus for ridging to build behind the aforementioned system
on Sunday, allowing the possibility of drier conditions for
Sunday. Each model has variability in the strength of the
ridging, leading to different possibilities of when rain showers
end and start again, and the intensity. Overall, the rather
overcast and showery pattern continues with the possibility of a
brief break on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
645 AM Update

Dense fog has formed, and is impacting ELM and BGM with below
airport minimum VSBYS/CIG restrictions. This fog will gradually
lift and scatter between 12-14z this morning. There is
uncertainty on exact times these two sites will see the fog
dissipate. AVP has MVFR Fuel Alt CIGS, and these will linger for
a few hours as well, before scattering out by around 14z.

Then, mainly VFR conditions are expected for the period, except
for possible brief restrictions in scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. Not
enough confidence in coverage or location of any t`storms to
mention in the TAFs at this time; for now just mentioned rain
showers. AVP likely stays dry, and ELM may remain dry all day
too.

Later this evening into the overnight, the warm front lift well
off to the north with just a few mid and high level clouds
around, and VFR conditions continuing areawide. Low level wind
shear will be possible at SYR, ITH and ELM during the late
evening and early overnight hours, with southwest winds around
35 kts at 2k ft agl.

Winds are light and variable under 5 kts this morning. By this
afternoon winds turn south to southwest at 7-15 kts.

Outlook...

Tuesday Morning...Mainly VFR expected. Moderate to high
confidence.

Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday...Periods of rain and
possible embedded thunderstorms look to bring widespread MVFR
restrictions. Periodic IFR also possible at some sites. Moderate
to high confidence

Thursday through Friday...Becoming VFR as a ridge of high
pressure moves overhead. Moderate confidence.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...MJM