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000
FXUS61 KBGM 250649
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
249 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be in control with dry weather Thursday and
Friday. Northerly flow allows temperatures to fall below
freezing Thursday night. Warm front moves through Saturday and
Sunday bringing a chance of rain showers along with a warming
trend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
245 am update...

Surface high remains in place for our region keeping conditions
quiet and dry. Meanwhile at the upper levels a trough slowly
begins to lift north of our region with a ridge building in
behind it. This keeps cooler air in place today with
temperatures climbing into the 50s this afternoon. Despite this
mostly sunny skies are expected which will allow conditions to
feel warmer. Clear skies persist into the overnight hours with
calm winds allowing temperatures to drop off into the upper 20s
to low 30s across the region. Adjusted temperatures a few
degrees lower using the NBM 10th percentile.

Upper ridge moves ahead on Friday with winds shifting to the
south/southeast. Surface high still holds with another pleasant day
in store for the region. Temperatures will begin to trend
slightly warmer under this pattern with highs climbing into the
upper 50s to low 60s. Clear skies persist for most of the day
with clouds moving in Friday night ahead of the next system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
230 PM Update

After a cold start early Friday morning, temperatures look to rise
into the upper 50s to mid-60s by afternoon. This is right on target
for late April. Expect mainly sunny skies, with perhaps just a few
stray clouds and light southerly winds for Friday. The area will
remain firmly under the influence of a 1030mb surface high centered
over New England through the day time hours. By Friday night it
remains dry, with gradually increasing high clouds. Southerly winds
will be 5 to 15 mph and this may help to keep overnight lows
slightly milder, very close to average in the mid-30s to low 40s.

By Saturday, a warm frontal system pushed into the region in the
afternoon. There remain model differences on just how much moisture
and rainfall this system could produce for our forecast area. The
front will be running into mid and upper level ridging, along with
some pretty dry air in the mid-levels. Clouds should increase and
there will be at least some scattered rain showers around during the
afternoon hours; rainfall amounts should be light generally one to
two tenths of an inch or less. There is no instability present on
Saturday, so thunderstorms are not expected. South winds continue to
increase between 10-20 mph, with some higher gusts by
afternoon/evening. With the clouds and showers around, temperatures
look to stay cooler/below average with highs in the 50s to low 60s.

Showers and perhaps even a thunderstorm continue Saturday night as
some elevated instability works in from the west. Look for steady
temperatures between 45-55 much of the night. The southerly winds
begin to decrease overnight, falling back to 8 to 15 mph after midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
230 PM Update

This period starts off with yet another warm front pushing through
the area on Sunday. This front will come through as upper level
heights continue to rise over the area. At this time, model guidance
is limiting the surface based instability to generally the Finger
Lakes and Central Southern Tier of NY regions. As the front lifts
north there will still be a chance for scattered showers around,
with a few thunderstorms also possible along/west of I-81 in NY and
northern tier of PA. Winds turn southwesterly after the frontal
passage and dew points rise into the mid-50s to low 60s. Afternoon
highs look to reach well into the 70s areawide.

Upper level ridge and deep southwesterly flow continue over the area
for Monday. Overall it looks partly sunny and mainly dry, with
temperatures surging 15-20 degrees above average levels; these
readings will be close to record highs for the date. There will
certainly be some instability around, but it could be mostly capped
by the upper level ridge overhead. With dew points in the lower 60s
did leave in a mention for a chance of rain showers and slight
chance of thunderstorms. Overall, it seems the next cold front is
slowing down slightly in the latest model guidance. This could open
the door for warmer temperatures on Tuesday, but also thunderstorms.
Stuck close to the NBM data for the official forecast (but limited
PoPs to likely category)...with high temperatures now progged to be
well into the 70s once again. Will have to watch the timing of this
front closely; if it holds off until afternoon that would allow for
higher levels of instability to build along with deep layer shear of
25-40 kts possible. After this it looks to cool down midweek, closer
to average with partly sunny skies and a chance for a few rain
showers. Winds turn west-northwest 10-20 mph.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure remains in control for this period with VFR
conditions expected at all terminals. Northerly winds will
continue to decrease overnight and winds Thursday will likely
stay below 10 kts at all sites.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Friday night...Mainly VFR.

Saturday through Monday...Restrictions possible in rain
showers, especially in the afternoon and evening.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ES
NEAR TERM...ES
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...ES