589
FXUS61 KBGM 091847
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
247 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible this afternoon
and evening across the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier. A weak
warm front lifts into the region tonight with fog developing
once again in the valleys as well as showers moving into the
Pocono Mountains by morning. More widespread showers and
thunderstorms expected in the afternoon tomorrow with a few
storms becoming strong.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
245 PM Update...

An upper level trough is slowly digging into the region with a
shortwave visible on water vapor imagery moving in this
afternoon. The better lift associated with the shortwave is to
our south but a few showers are developing in central PA and
will move into the western Twin Tiers as well as the Finger
Lakes region this afternoon. Tonight, precipitation chances were
kept higher for NEPA as the 250 mb jet strengthens with NEPA
under the right entrance region so there is broad lift with a
bit of elevated instability. Showers and a few rumbles of
thunder are likely through the night with the activity slowly
shifting north into tomorrow.

Breaks of sun and clouds similar to today along with better mid
level lapse rates near 6C/km under the trough will help good
instability to develop. MLCAPE approaches 1500 J/kg with SBCAPE
up to near 3000 J/kg. Shear is pretty minimal in the low levels
with very little winds below 700 mb but we do have the 250 mb
jet overhead so there is good shear from 600 mb up to the
equilibrium level. There is also very dry air above 500 mb so
storms tomorrow that get deeper convection may be able to tap
into that elevated shear and strengthen with good lift through
the hail growth zone. The main concern with storms will be hail
and precipitation loading leading to microburst and downburst.
Without the low level shear, it will be tough to develop any
strong mesocyclones but there could be weak supercells that
develop with any persistent deep convection.

With the trough axis swinging through Thursday night, a drier
air mass advects in with surface high pressure. Mostly clear
skies likely leads to the formation of valley fog as we
typically see at this time of the year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
200 AM Forecast...

Lingering showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the
late evening hours Thursday night. Instability decreases with the
lost of daytime heating, limiting the potential for any strong
storms lingering into the overnight hours. The trough that will
support the showers/storms lifts north late overnight, allowing
conditions to dry out as a ridge of high pressure begins to
build into the region.

A ridge continues to build into the region Friday. Weak waves will
try to kick off some afternoon showers and non-severe thunderstorms.
Drier air in place may be tough to overcome though, especially over
CNY. While chances are low, the best shower/storm chances will be
over NEPA and the Catskills where there will be slightly more
moisture available. Any showers/storms that develop come to an end
by Friday night.

Temperatures both nights will be in the 60s. Temperatures will climb
into the 80s on Friday. Dew points in the mid to to low 70s will
result in muggy conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
200 AM Forecast...

The weekend will start out mostly dry but a warm front will move
through on Saturday, which could support showers and thunderstorms
late in the day. Conditions then dry out overnight before shower
chances increase and become a bit more widespread Sunday as a cold
front approaches and eventually sweeps through the region. There is
uncertainty on the timing of the front as the GFS is quick to move
it through while the ECMWF is much slower with it. Due to this
uncertainty, shower chances will carry over into Monday given the
slower solutions, but then high pressure builds into the region
following the frontal passage. Drier conditions are expected by
Monday night and last through at least Tuesday. Spotty showers may
be possible Tuesday but with dry air in place, it may be a challenge
for anything to develop.

It will be a warm and muggy weekend after the warm front passes
through. Highs will be 80s and low 90s with dewpoints in the 60s and
low 70s. The cold front will be weak and brings little relief as
temperatures will remain in the 80s to start next week. Saturday
night will be the warmest night of this period with lows only in the
mid 60s to low 70s but then 60s are expected for the rest of the
nights into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions expected at SYR, BGM, and AVP. With conditions
tonight similar to last night, ELM, ITH, and potentially RME
could have fog develop again. ELM is high confidence fog will
form but ITH is a bit lower though given all the fog last night,
included a period of MVFR for now but may have to lower to IFR
if the humidity does not mix lower this afternoon. RME has
lower confidence in fog as the better chances of IFR fog are to
the north of the terminal. Its possible the fog sneaks in at
times late tonight into early tomorrow morning with a MVFR tempo
in place for the timing of the best potential. Once the fog
mixes out mid morning, VFR conditons expected at all terminals
through 18Z. Low chance of showers and thunderstorms developing
prior to 18Z that could lead to restrictions late morning but
unlikely to impact terminals until after 18Z.

Outlook...

Thursday afternoon...Restrictions possible with some showers
and thunderstorms around. (High confidence)

Friday...Mainly VFR. (High confidence)

Saturday into Sunday...Isolated to Scattered showers/storms
possible and associated restrictions. (Medium Confidence)

Monday...Weak low pressure moving through, more widespread
showers and thunderstorms possible with associated restrictions.
(low confidence)

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...AJG