Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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970 FXUS64 KTSA 111515 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1015 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today ) Issued at 1010 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 Surface ridge axis remains over the area this morning maintaining a relatively dry low level airmass. Approaching shortwave in the mid levels will continue to force showers and thunderstorms near an elevated frontal zone across west TX, and while a few showers may eventually flirt with far southeast OK later this afternoon, POPs will be kept below mentionable levels given the deep dry layer in place. No updates will be made this morning. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 A cutoff low currently over the desert southwest will gradually drift eastward tonight providing increasingly SW flow over the CWA. Moisture transport will be increasing during this time and rain/ thunder chances really begin to ramp up by Sunday afternoon under isentropic ascent regime. Precip chances persist into Monday as a sfc low translates east-northeast across the CWA, dragging a cold front with it. The front is expected to be the focus for storm development Monday afternoon & evening, with the highest PoPs currently placed over NE OK & NW AR. While storms should remain sub severe Sunday & Sun night, it is not out of question to see a marginal severe threat on Monday across SE OK & W-Central AR where instability will be the greatest. Potentially of greater concern, however, is the threat for heavy rainfall with PWATs landing in the 1 to 1.5" range Sunday & Monday (near 90th percentile). The WPC has painted a marginal risk for excessive rainfall across the entire CWA for this period. Most precip should end Monday night/ Tuesday morning as the low departs, though guidance suggests at least light precip could persist into Tuesday afternoon for AR zones. Transitory ridging will keep the forecast dry Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Negative height anomalies return to the region for the second half of the week with several passing disturbances promoting elevated rain & thunder potential Wednesday through Friday. To be expected for this time of year... at least a limited threat for severe weather will accompany this activity. PWATs remain high during this period as well, with locally heavy rainfall remaining a concern... especially given the recent rainfall across the FA. Temperatures generally remain near seasonal averages through the period... highs in the upper 70s/ lower 80s and lows in the upper 50s/ lower 60s. Winds will tend to become occasionally breezy as each weather system impacts the region, though still remaining in the 20-30 mph range at most. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 613 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with an increase in mid and high clouds expected. Winds should remain below 10 kts. The projected increase in showers and thunderstorms should hold off until after the end of the valid TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 83 59 76 61 / 0 10 30 90 FSM 83 60 79 62 / 0 10 20 80 MLC 83 59 75 62 / 10 10 40 80 BVO 82 55 77 58 / 0 10 30 90 FYV 80 54 76 58 / 10 10 20 90 BYV 78 55 77 59 / 10 0 20 80 MKO 81 59 77 61 / 0 10 30 90 MIO 80 56 77 59 / 0 10 30 90 F10 81 59 76 61 / 0 10 40 90 HHW 80 60 75 62 / 10 10 50 70 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....43 AVIATION...22