Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 181151
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
551 AM CST Fri Jan 18 2019

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Dense fog has developed from KFSM west into east central Oklahoma.
Visibility will likely remain below 1/2 mile at KFSM with reduced
visibility at or below 2 miles for the other sites through mid
morning with LIFR ceilings. Some improvement to MVFR ceilings is
expected by midday as winds become gusty from the south. Thunder
chances are highest this evening, when scattered showers and
storms will develop ahead of a strong cold front.

The front will move through far northeast Oklahoma beginning
around midnight through early Saturday morning. Rain will change
over fairly quickly to some sort of a wintry mix in eastern
Oklahoma - most likely snow or sleet. The AR terminals may have
rain or freezing rain after midnight, with wintry precipitation
developing before sunrise. All sites will have very gusty
northwest winds with gusts to 30 to 40 miles per hour tonight
through Saturday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 522 AM CST Fri Jan 18 2019/

UPDATE...

Forecast was updated to include the recently issued dense fog
advisory. See discussion below.

DISCUSSION...

Current nighttime fog GOES16 imagery and surface obs confirm a
pretty decent area of dense fog stretching from the lower Ark
river valley westward into east central OK. So far low stratus
across much of NE OK has prevented vsbys from dropping very low,
though there is still some reduction.

Lacy

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 323 AM CST Fri Jan 18 2019/

DISCUSSION...

Models have trended toward a more progressive and open wave
compared to a few days ago, and this has resulted in a continued
downward trend in the winter weather impact potential. The cold
air is still coming though, as a decent slug of arctic air,
currently residing over the northern Plains and upper Midwest,
will be brought down the Plains thanks to the upper wave.

Ahead of the front, which will slide across the region tonight,
moisture return ahead of the surface/frontal low will bring some
instability into eastern OK/western AR. Current surface analysis
shows the better moisture still bottled up over the western Gulf.
This more quality moisture is not expected to return into our area
ahead of the front. There is some indication of low surface based
CAPE near the Red River, but for the most part any instability
will be elevated over our area. That said, some data, such as the
HREF shows some UH tracks across east central and southeast OK and
to a lesser extent into western AR. Strong shear and cooling
temps aloft would suggest some threat for large hail.

Behind the front, a very tight pressure gradient and isallobaric
forcing will bring strong north winds and advisory level gusts to
portions of the region. The trend toward a more progressive wave
has limited the amount of precip back in the cold air, and thus
any wintry precip will be light. Given the higher confidence with
the winds, and low confidence of winter weather impacts, have
elected to issue a wind advisory for much of NE OK from midnight
tonight thru 8 AM Saturday morning. Gusts around 40 mph are
possible.

The progressive pattern will allow downslope influences to erode
the arctic air fairly quickly, with highs returning to the 50s by
Monday. Another progressive wave will slide across the Plains
Monday night into Tuesday. Current indications are that any precip
with this system will be along and ahead of the front, thus no
wintry weather is expected at this time.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   58  25  30  17 /  30  80  30   0
FSM   57  31  32  21 /  10  80  50   0
MLC   61  27  33  19 /  10  80  20   0
BVO   56  23  29  13 /  50  80  20   0
FYV   53  26  27  14 /  10  80  70   0
BYV   52  28  29  16 /  10  90  80  10
MKO   57  26  31  18 /  10  90  40   0
MIO   54  24  27  14 /  30  90  50   0
F10   60  26  32  18 /  10  80  20   0
HHW   63  31  35  23 /  20  70  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for OKZ065-066-
     070>076.

     Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM CST Saturday for
     OKZ054>062-064>067-070-071.

AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for ARZ019-020-
     029.

&&

$$


LONG TERM....30
AVIATION.....06

CORFIDI


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