796
FXUS64 KTSA 171828
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
128 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Thru Tonight)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

A NE-SW oriented trof axis sits over the region this afternoon,
with an embedded vort max clearly evident in the cloud field on
satellite imagery over SE OK. CAMs suggest shower/storm coverage
will be greatest over W AR and neighboring far E OK ahead of this
feature as it, and the parent trough, slide east with time.
Coverage should begin to wind down this evening though, due to the
loss of daytime heating. Organized severe weather is not expected
due to weak deep-layer shear.

Later on tonight, mostly clear skies and a moist BL will set the
stage for more dense fog, much like what occurred last night
except shifted farther east. Will let the evening and night shifts
evaluate the need for an advisory later if need be.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

We dry out and warm up for the weekend. We`ll likely see the first
90 degree high temps for 2024. There`s a decent signal that storms
will come off the dryline on Sunday afternoon well to our west,
and some of this activity may survive into NE OK Sunday night in a
weakened state. Capping looks stronger on Monday along the
dryline, so the focus shifts to a sagging front across KS. Storm
activity should stay north of the state line thru Monday night. As
the front sinks slowly southeast on Tuesday, storm chances will
increase across the region. Exact evolution remains uncertain, but
chances of severe weather will go up with strong flow aloft and
favorable late May thermodynamics. Storm chances continue
Wednesday with the front, mainly over the eastern and southern
portions of the forecast area. Storm chances will continue thru
the end of the week.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Areas of fog this morning have cleared this afternoon, with mostly
VFR conditions now noted across the region. A system moving across
SE OK will bring chances for scattered thunderstorms this
afternoon, mainly for NW AR sites. Fog is also likely to return
tonight, shifted a little east from where it was this morning.
Greater fog coverage will likely be across far E OK and will
impact W AR sites late tonight into tomorrow morning with at least
IFR conditions expected.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  88  64  90 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   63  87  65  91 /  20  10   0   0
MLC   60  88  64  90 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   57  87  60  89 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   58  84  57  88 /  20  10   0   0
BYV   58  83  60  88 /  20  10   0   0
MKO   60  85  63  88 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   59  84  61  87 /   0   0   0   0
F10   60  85  63  88 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   62  86  64  88 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...04