Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 171930
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
230 PM CDT Sat Apr 17 2021

.DISCUSSION...
A few minor breaks in the clouds this afternoon, otherwise mostly
cloudy skies continue across much of the area with unseasonably
cool conditions and light northwest winds. The cloud cover will
likely hang around in some areas into Sunday as compact upper vort
max approaches from the northwest. Could see a few scattered showers
in association with upper feature during the day Sunday, primarily
across far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Weak surface
high will build over the area Sunday night and northwest Arkansas
still has the potential for patchy frost in a few areas early Monday
morning. Otherwise, nice warm up expected during the day as southwest
winds begin to increase with high temperatures finally back to near
normal.

Models remain in good agreement with timing of next strong cold front,
which will move into northeast Oklahoma late Monday night. Rain showers
will be likely along/behind the front Tuesday morning across northeast
Oklahoma, spreading into northwest Arkansas and there remains a brief
window where a rain/snow mix will be possible, mainly north of Interstate
44. Currently, no snow accumulations or travel impacts are expected,
but forecast will continue to be refined into early next week as additional
data becomes available. Temperatures are forecast to fall to near or
slightly below freezing in many areas by Wednesday morning as surface
high settles over the region. Widespread areas of frost will be possible
across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas with the light winds
and clear skies expected. As mentioned in previous discussion, later
shifts will need to monitor for a potential Freeze Watch.

Surface high pressure will begin to shift east late week with a slow
warming trend, including increasing low level moisture. A broader
upper trough will shift into the desert Southwest Thursday into
Friday. Rain chances will begin to ramp up during this time, including
at least low thunderstorm chances. Still some timing differences
that will need to be ironed out, which will determine how much
instability system has to work with.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   42  65  41  73 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   42  66  41  73 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   41  66  40  73 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   41  63  38  72 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   37  61  35  69 /   0  10   0   0
BYV   40  60  38  69 /   0  20   0   0
MKO   40  63  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   41  61  38  70 /  10  20   0   0
F10   41  65  40  73 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   41  66  41  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


LONG TERM....12


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