171
FXUS64 KTSA 201104
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
504 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 500 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025

 - Very cold temperatures continue through Tuesday.

 - Light snow or flurries possible in the western and southern
   parts of the area this afternoon and evening, with little
   or no snow accumulation expected.

 - Warmer temperatures expected Wednesday into early next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and This Evening)
Issued at 335 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025

Clouds will continue to increase today, with light snow or snow
flurries spreading into parts of northeast Oklahoma this
afternoon. A very dry low level airmass will result in little or
no snow accumulation, with perhaps isolated amounts up to a
quarter inch or so in a few spots. Afternoon high temperatures
will range from the lower 20s to lower 30s.

A cold front will push south across the area late this afternoon
and evening, with even drier air in its wake. This will force any
light snow or flurries to advect more south than east through the
evening hours, with again little or no snow accumulation
expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Overnight Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 335 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025

Light snow or flurries will end overnight, with clearing skies
from the north. Another very cold night is expected, and have
issued a cold weather advisory for parts of far northwest
Arkansas, where wind chill values by morning will likely fall just
below zero.

After another cold day Tuesday, a warmup will commence Wednesday
and continue through Saturday, by which time temperatures will be
well above the seasonal averages. A cold front will move across
the area Saturday night bringing cooler temperatures for Sunday,
but it will not be nearly as cold as the current airmass. Model
differences increase late in the weekend with regard to
precipitation potential, so stayed with the NBM pops for now. Any
precipitation that falls is expected to be in the form of rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 500 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2025

Ceilings will gradually develop and lower into the afternoon,
eventually settling around 5-6 kft for most areas by mid
afternoon. Winds will generally favor the north to northeast, but
with long periods of lighter speeds and variable direction.

A cold front will move through KBVO during the early evening,
gradually moving southeast through the entire area overnight.
Behind the front a short burst of gustier north winds will
commence, with gusts to 15-20 kts for an hour or two.
Additionally, areas of light snowfall may develop. The most likely
area is KBVO (20-30% chance), with lesser chances for the Tulsa
area terminals and KMLC (10-20% chance). The impacts would be
briefly lowered visibility and ceilings but little if any
accumulation. Skies clear for Tuesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   26  10  29  23 /  20  20   0   0
FSM   30  15  29  17 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   29  12  31  20 /  10  20   0   0
BVO   24   6  29  18 /  20  20   0   0
FYV   26   8  25  14 /  10  10   0   0
BYV   23   7  23  16 /  10  10   0   0
MKO   28  11  29  20 /  10  20   0   0
MIO   23   5  25  19 /  10  10   0   0
F10   28  11  30  21 /  20  20   0   0
HHW   31  18  32  18 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Tuesday
     for ARZ002-011.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...06