Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 062353
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
653 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2020

.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance.

AVIATION...
Rain bands from TS Cristobal are already inland and impacting some
terminals already, but otherwise VFR and MVFR conditions will
continue until it approaches the coast. Winds are already elevated
especially near the coast, but will then move into the entire
forecast areaahead of landfall early Sunday. As it moves inland
later near the end of the forecast period, conditions will
deteriorate further as winds will ramp up to 50kt+ wind gusts
along with low level wind shear. Showers and thunderstorms should
be the predominant conditions with IFR ceilings and visibility
especially after 18z. -BL

DISCUSSION...Tropical Storm Cristobal remains rather ragged and
asymmetrical. Cristobal has been moving pretty much due north through
the day. We have seen a few weak bands already move through which
brought tropical like showers and some wind gusts around 30kts.

Cristobal is expected to continue to move north tonight and tomorrow
but should begin to slow down a touch as it approaches the coast and
a ridge builds north of it over the Mid MS Valley. The ridge will
continue to slide east Sunday night and ridge down the far
southeastern CONUS. This will induce some north-northwest turn as
Cristobal moves through southeast and central LA. Cristobal should
continue to the north across the lower MS Valley Monday night and
eventually get picked up over the Mid MS Valley by a strong s/w
moving across the central and north Plains Tuesday.

As for impacts heavy rain is still the greatest concern while surge
is also a big issue along portions of the coast. Winds and isolated
tornadoes are also a concern Sunday and Sunday night. For greater
details regarding locations and impacts please refer to the
following products, the Hurricane Local Statement (HLS), Marine
Weather Warning (MWW), Coastal Flood Advisory (CFW), and Areal
Flood Watch (FAA).

One thing we want to really focus on is rain. There is a lot of
uncertainty with respect to rain. As we have been saying many of the
impacts could be well away from the center and this still looks to
be the case. So even if Cristobal goes up around Houma to Baton
Rouge and continues to the north-northwest a band of very heavy rain
could be well east over the North and South shores or even coastal
MS. If this band does develop we do not anticipate it to move much
and could drop rather significant amounts of rain in a 6-12 hour
time frame Sunday and/or Sunday night. That said Tropical systems at
night tend to try and breath in with convection firing closer to the
center and with Cristobal expected to make landfall and move across
the region during the overnight hours we could see heavy rain
develop closer to the center. With a rather moisture loaded
tropical environment in place, warm rain processes will kick in
and showers will be very efficient with even heavier rain in an
thunderstorm. This is all something to watch for.

In addition to the heavy rain, rivers will have a very hard time
draining as storm surge and high tides within the tidal lakes will
push water back up river and keep them from draining. This will not
really improve Monday as strong southerly winds will continue all
day. Winds may finally slack off enough to allow tides to back down
some but draining could be a slow process.

Looking at the extended forecast as Cristobal merges with the s/w
it will actually drag a weak front into the area Wednesday which
could lead to more showers and thunderstorms. By Thursday we should
begin to dry out as a flat ridge extends across the norther Gulf
coast. The ridge then builds across the Rockies and we move into a
drier and warmer pattern. /CAB/

MARINE...Conditions are already deteriorating. Some of our
higher platforms are showing wind gusts around 30-40 knots. These
will only increase overnight and seas will ramp up as well. Tropical
Storm conditions will continue to expand across all of the coastal
water tonight. For more information regarding this please refer to
the Marine Weather Warning (MWW). Strong onshore flow will continue
into Tuesday even as Cristobal moves away. Already hit on coastal
flooding and tidal issues earlier. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  72  84  74  82 /  20  70  90 100
BTR  74  83  75  84 /  30  80  90  90
ASD  72  83  74  85 /  60  90 100  90
MSY  76  82  77  85 /  70  90  90  90
GPT  73  82  76  83 /  70  90 100  90
PQL  71  84  74  85 /  70  90 100  90

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Tropical Storm Warning for LAZ034>037-039-040-046>050-056>072.

     Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for LAZ034>037-039-040-
     046>050-056>072.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for LAZ040-050-058-
     060-061-072.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-
     557-570-572-575-577.

MS...Tropical Storm Warning for MSZ068>071-077-080>082.

     Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for MSZ077-080>082.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for MSZ082.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-
     570-572-575-577.

&&

$$



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