Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 031928
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
328 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020

.Short Term...
Today through Thursday...

An active afternoon should continue as a 500mb short wave sits
just to the north of the area. At the surface, a Bermuda high is
bringing a southeasterly flow. There is also a wave of deep sub
tropical moisture moving through the area. With the help of the
short wave, convection has been able to affect the area through
the day, and diurnal heating has driven even more convection, but
more towards the interior. Plenty of CAPE, with the morning
sounding coming in at over 2300 J/Kg and a modified sounding
indicating over 3500 J/Kg this afternoon. The Bermuda high has
been helping to steer the convection to the northwest, away from
the Atlantic metro area this afternoon, although still not able to
rule out some isolated activity through the evening. However, the
heavy showers that have been occurring may act to saturate the
area for additional heavy rains over the next couple of days.
Given this, will go ahead and raise a Flood Watch through 12z
Friday for now.

There should be a lull in activity through a good portion of the
night, even though some isolated activity may occur over the
coastal waters and the adjacent coasts.

Tomorrow, PWATs remain above 2 inches, and the 500mb short wave
will help to bring another round of convection, including possible
heavy rain. Looking at the 500mb temps, the GFS is moderately warm
at around -6C. This should help to reduce the threat of severe
weather, and possibly help to make it an effective warm rain
process. This is what is helping to bring the concern of flooding
for the urban flooding for tomorrow. Models have backed way off on
coverage, but this could be brought back up again with future
runs. even so, they are still showing mainly a high end chance of
showers and storms tomorrow.

.Long Term (Thursday Night Through Tuesday)...
Overall a fairly wet pattern is expected through at least the next
couple of days as deep tropical moisture continues to sit over
the area with forecast PWs remaining near or above 2 inches. While
Tropical Storm Cristobal is forecast to slowly push northward
into the Central Gulf during this time frame, the storm itself is
forecast to remain well to the west of our area. If Cristobal
remains a weaker and therefore messier storm, then more tropical
moisture would likely spread eastward across the FL Peninsula.
However, if Cristobal becomes stronger and more compact, then
perhaps less (although still sufficient) moisture will be present
overhead. Even with the deep tropical moisture present, there
still needs to be some sort of forcing to get convection going.
Right now, the primary forcing mechanism through most of the long
term appears to be diurnally-driven, particularly if the afternoon
seabreezes are able to form. With forecast easterly to southeast
winds through Friday or Saturday, most of the focus for afternoon
thunderstorms and therefore the primary heavy rainfall potential
will probably be focused more on the Gulf Coast before shifting to
the Lake Region/northward early next week as Cristobal moves
across the Central Gulf Coast states.

High temperatures through the long term are generally forecast to
range from the mid 80s to low 90s. With dew points remaining
uncomfortably in the mid to upper 70s, high humidity will raise
the heat indices into the 90s and even low 100s during the
afternoons.

&&

.Marine...
The main concern for the marine areas around South Florida is
showers and storms causing locally hazardous conditions through
the end of the week. Over the weekend, there is uncertainty with
the marine forecast as it will depend highly on the track of
Cristobal. It should at least bring some rougher seas to the Gulf
waters over the weekend. It may also bring high enough wind to
the Atlantic to waters to cause possible hazardous conditions for
small craft. Conditions should begin to improve by the beginning
of next week.


&&

.Aviation...
An upper level disturbance, together with a Bermuda high and some
subtropical moisture are bringing SHRA and TSRA to a good part of
South Florida through the evening hours. However, most of the
activity should remain in the interior and along the Gulf coast.
After a fairly quiet period tonight, SHRA should initiate once
again along the coastal areas around 09-10z, with TSRA possible
after around 16z across the entire area. With the uncertainty at
this time, only have a prob30 group for all sites tomorrow.

&&

.Beach Forecast...
An easterly wind should remain strong enough over the next several
days, and through the weekend to keep an enhanced risk of rip
currents for the Atlantic beaches. There is uncertainty with the
Gulf coast as most of the flow is offshore, but there may be
enough swell from Cristobal to create some concern.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
West Palm Beach  74  82  75  86 /  30  40  50  70
Fort Lauderdale  76  82  77  86 /  30  40  50  70
Miami            75  83  77  86 /  30  30  50  60
Naples           72  82  74  87 /  30  40  70  80

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Friday morning for FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&


Marine...13
Aviation...13
Beach Forecast...13

Short Term...13
Long Term...32/MM



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