419
FXUS64 KTSA 141725
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1125 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1125 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

 - Cold again tonight and Monday morning; not as cold as this
   morning.

 - Temperatures quickly warm to above normal temperatures by mid
   week.

 - Low rain chances (20-30%) east on Wednesday night and Thursday
   morning as a front passes, otherwise dry weather prevails.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1125 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

The cold, Arctic air has arrived, but will not stick around for
very long. The frigid north winds this morning will fall off this
afternoon as the ridge axis from a 1044mb surface high begins to
move into the area and eventually shifts east late this afternoon
or early this evening. In response, winds will veer out of the
south/southeast and will commence a warming trend that will
persist into the middle part of next week. Despite winds turning
southerly and becoming light overnight, bitterly cold temperatures
and wind chills are still anticipated for at least one more
night. Did lower temperatures a few degrees tonight from what NBM
guidance has and closer to MOS guidance. Overnight low
temperatures are expected to bottom out in the teens and lower 20s
for most spots, with morning wind chills between 5-15 degrees
Sunday morning.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Benign and mostly dry weather, with warming temperatures, will
prevail through the first half of the upcoming workweek. Subtle mid-
level ridging overhead and southerly surface winds will increase
temperatures closer to seasonal average during the daytime on Monday
as well as Monday night. Cloud cover will begin to increase from
southwest to northeast Monday night into Tuesday as a weak mid-level
shortwave trough moves across the Southern Plains. As the shortwave
trough axis moves over eastern OK late Tuesday afternoon or early
Tuesday evening, it looks to tap into slightly deeper moisture being
pulled in from the Gulf. There may be enough moisture to cause light
rain showers, mainly across far southeast OK and west-central AR
Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. However, still not
confident enough to include mentionable PoPs and capped them at
10 percent. Rainfall amounts, if any, will be very light and not
impactful.

A more potent upper-level trough/cut-off low will move across the
Northern Rockies and Northern Plains Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. With southerly winds remaining in place, low-level moisture
will continue to be drawn into the region during this time period.
Most deterministic models show light precipitation developing ahead
of the trough axis, mostly confined in the eastern/southeastern
half of the CWA. As the upper-level low continues to advance over
the Upper Midwest Thursday morning, a weak cold front will push
through eastern Ok and northwest AR. Light rain showers may linger
in the vicinity and just behind the frontal boundary across far
eastern OK and western AR, but chances should end from west to
east behind the frontal boundary Thursday afternoon. Overall,
total rainfall amounts look to be light, generally a few
hundredths of an inch to a couple of tenths of an inch at most. By
Thursday evening, the upper-level low will advance over the Great
Lakes region and surface high pressure will settle across the area.
Another warming trend will begin starting on Friday morning as
high pressure continues to scoot eastward and southerly winds
return. Forecast uncertainty drastically increases beyond Friday
with several discrepancies in model data. Will maintain the NBM
solution for days 7 and 8, which brings in the next cold front
late Saturday night into next Sunday morning. Strength of this
front and precipitation chances with it are still uncertain at
this time.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1030 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Gusty
northeasterly winds persist through midday at mainly MLC, with a
downward trend in gusts and speeds expected at all sites into
early evening. Wind directions will become southerly and increase
in speed at all sites by mid morning tomorrow, except FSM, which
will hang onto its typical easterly wind through the end of the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   21  47  33  58 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   20  49  30  59 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   20  45  35  60 /   0   0   0  10
BVO   16  48  28  58 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   16  46  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   18  47  33  57 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   19  46  33  58 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   19  44  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
F10   21  45  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   22  44  33  57 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...22