000
FXUS64 KTSA 091031
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
531 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2020

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the valid
period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 351 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2020/

DISCUSSION...
Today will see a return to more seasonable temperatures following
the passage of a cold front overnight. A light freeze will be
possible tonight in the more sheltered valleys of northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, but most places will remain above
freezing.

The next storm system is still on track to affect the area over
the weekend. The highest rain chances will remain across southern
and eastern parts of the forecast area, but most rainfall amounts
are expected to remain rather modest. A few stronger storms may
be possible Sunday afternoon as a strong cold front moves into the
area, but this is dependent on whether we can see enough sunshine
to boost temperatures up into the 70s ahead of the front.

Much colder temperatures will follow this frontal passage for
early next week. The models now agree that an upper level
disturbance may result in a band of light rain streaking across
the area late Monday night and Tuesday, so have added pops at that
time. Temperatures aloft will be cold enough for snow, but near
ground temperatures in the upper 30s to near 40 should result in
all rain at the surface. If precipitation rates are greater than
expected, there is a chance that a few wet mushy snow flakes may
mix in with the rain at times.

Below normal temperatures will continue through the middle part of
next week.

Did not stray too far from the National Blend of Models forecast.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....10