291
FXUS64 KTSA 151938
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
238 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 238 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

  - Locally elevated fire weather concerns continue through early
    evening, mainly along and west of Highway 75 in northeast
    Oklahoma.

  - Significant fire weather concerns return Monday and Tuesday,
    as gusty south to southwest winds develop both days and
    humidities remain low, especially Monday.

  - Cold front passes Wednesday with a low chance of rain. Temps
    cool to nearer normal for mid to late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

A cold front will continue to push southeastward through the
region this afternoon and into the overnight, with falling
temperatures and dew points and increased northwesterly winds
behind it. The increased winds are fueling locally elevated fire
spread conditions in parts of northeast Oklahoma that are still
dealing with fire fighting and recovery efforts. Wind speeds will
trend downward during the evening and overnight, but relative
humidities will be slow to improve, especially west of Highway 75.
A low chance for light rain will continue, mainly across parts of
southeast Oklahoma this afternoon and into northwest and west
central Arkansas this evening.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Saturday)
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Fire weather concerns dominate the long term forecast, with Monday
and Tuesday both featuring windy conditions and very low relative
humidities in at least a portion of the forecast area. Fire
Weather Watches will be issued this afternoon for most of
northeast Oklahoma, as well as Benton and Washington counties in
far northwest Arkansas, for Monday, and for areas west of Highway
75 in northeast Oklahoma for Tuesday.

Sunday will feature light winds but very low humidities areawide,
given the low dew points and surface high pressure that will
continue to move into the area behind todays cold front. This
should be the least concerning fire weather day of the period
given the light winds in place.

Sunday night and into Monday, a strengthening west-southwesterly
low level jet will set up across northeast Oklahoma, setting the
stage for a return to well above normal temperatures and gusty
winds areawide. Moisture is not expected to substantially return
on Monday, with that more likely to occur to some degree across a
larger portion of the area Tuesday. Given the very low dew points
that will be in place Monday, negligible moisture return and wind
gusts that will be very near advisory criteria, critical fire
weather conditions are likely to result for much of northeast
Oklahoma along and northwest of I-44 and the far northwest corner
of Arkansas. ERC`s on Monday will run from the upper 50s to near
90 percent in this area as well.

Another strong low level jet is expected to set up across the
region Monday night and continue into Tuesday, keeping winds up
overnight and leading to poor moisture recovery, especially west
of Highway 75. Maximum overnight relative humidities are only
forecast to be from 35 to 45 percent in parts of Creek, Pawnee and
Osage counties Monday night/Tuesday morning. Wind Advisory
criteria gusts are more likely on Tuesday than even Monday, with
the slight uptick in winds expected to offset any increase in
moisture. The most concerning fire weather conditions on Tuesday
should be limited to and eastern extent of Okfuskee, Creek, Pawnee
and Osage counties, given higher humidities farther east. We
would not usually issue a watch this far in advance, but given the
existing fire activity from yesterdays event and the potential for
additional fires on Monday, we decided more heads up was prudent.

Another potent system will move through the region on Wednesday,
with an early in the day dryline passage and a cold front
following quickly on its heels. Falling temperatures, lower
moisture and gusty northwesterly winds will spread to the south
and east during the day. Little in the way of precipitation will
accompany this system with only low rain chances hugging the
Kansas and Missouri borders. The wind shift and falling dew points
will keep some fire weather concern in the forecast, with Fire
Danger Statements likely needed for some areas.

The pattern will remain active late in the week and into the
weekend, with only low rain chances accompanying a system on
Friday. An increase in southerly winds ahead of the Friday system
should lead to another uptick in fire weather concerns, given
continued dry conditions and low relative humidities.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

MVFR ceilings across NW AR will scatter out in the next hour, with
VFR conditions prevailing this forecast period. There remains a
low chance of a few rain showers later today across NW AR with
ceilings likely remaining just above VFR levels with a mix of mid
and high clouds elsewhere. Northwest winds gusting 20-25 knots
this afternoon will diminish after 00z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   33  61  41  80 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   38  63  36  78 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   36  63  41  77 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   30  61  34  81 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   31  58  33  75 /  20   0   0   0
BYV   33  55  36  71 /  30   0   0   0
MKO   34  60  38  75 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   31  58  37  75 /  20   0   0   0
F10   35  61  40  76 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   38  63  38  73 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for OKZ054>067.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for OKZ054-059-064-065.

AR...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
     for ARZ001-010.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...14