Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 221857

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
257 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

Cloud streaks formed along the island chain this afternoon along
moist, southeasterly low level flow. Isolated showers remain
across the eastern Florida Straits, and at times have crossed into
the nearshore Bayside waters. Temperatures are in the low to mid
80s, and dew points remain in the low to mid 70s. Winds have
increased to 10 to 15 mph this afternoon across the island chain
and nearshore waters, out of the southeast.

The overall synoptic pattern evolves between an incoming broad,
deep-layered cyclone (currently positioned in the Mississippi
River Valley) and a retreating New England high through mid-
week. Low and mid- level atmospheric moisture will be on the
increase as prevailing flow remains out of the east and south
through Monday Night. The low pressure system shifts into the
Carolinas Tuesday, and swings a frontal trough through the Keys
Wednesday night. The ingredients (35 kt shear, nocturnal
instability ~2500 j/kg, increasing moisture transport) will enable
isolated thunderstorms to accompany the weak frontal passage
Tuesday night. Thereafter, a slight air mass change will occur,
dropping dew points into the 60s, which last into the weekend
along with low chances of rain.


No watches, warnings, or advisories are in place across the
coastal waters surrounding the Florida Keys. An expansive area of
high pressure covering the entire Eastern United States will slide
into the western North Atlantic Ocean over the next several days,
as a weak area of low pressure migrates eastward and across the
Southeast United States before lifting up the Eastern Seaboard
next week.


Overnight, VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH through at
least the next 24 hours. Expect a few to scattered clouds with bases
aoa FL015-025, but any vfr cigs will be very short lived.




Data Collection......DR

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