Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000 FXUS63 KABR 011052 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 452 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Afternoon) Issued at 451 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021 Stratus has set up on the edges of some thermal packing as high pressure builds into the eastern Dakotas this morning. Scattered flurries have been observed with the stratus. Warm air advection is expected to push in from the west late today as upper ridging builds over the Rockies. Temperatures will remain fairly cool even with the waa due to timing and fresh snow. Lowered guidance highs in south central SD by 5 to 8 degrees. Warmest temps will occur in snow-free areas across north central SD today. Winds will shift to the south and southwest ahead of an approaching front by this evening. This will set up some downsloping tonight ahead of the front. Areas of blowing snow will be possible with some blowing and drifting along I-29. Winds speeds tonight will need a second look as models may be under doing the gusts given decent lapse rates and dry mid levels. The front will move through dry Tuesday morning. H85 temps will rise from -8C this morning to +4C on Tuesday. Highs, while still moderated by the snow, should rise into the 40s and 50s in central SD allowing for a quick melt. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Sunday) Issued at 451 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021 To start the period, a ridge builds into the region Wednesday and becomes the dominant feature through at least Saturday night. This will contribute to above average temperatures across the board through the period. There still remains some question as to how much snow cover will be on the ground Wednesday afternoon. Clear skies, and thus ample March sun, are expected through most of the prior period. In addition, well above freezing temperatures are forecast for Tuesday. Thus even in areas with 3 to 4 inches of snow from this past Saturday night`s system, it seems unlikely much snow will remain on the ground (other than in piles) in central South Dakota come Wednesday. Cooler temps and more snow depth will likely mean snow remains in portions of east central South Dakota, however. With sunny skies forecast again on Wednesday and westerly winds (albeit fairly light), went ahead and bumped up temps slightly without factoring in snow cover inhibiting highs in central South Dakota. Also in continuing prior forecast trends, bumped up temps slightly for Saturday and Sunday. Bone dry conditions remain the most plausible scenario through the extended. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning) Issued at 451 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG Stratus and flurries will periodically reduce vsby and cigs to IFR/MVFR until 15z. Then expect all sites to improve to VFR. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wise LONG TERM...Telken AVIATION...Wise

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