Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000 FXUS63 KABR 260518 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1218 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 912 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Showers and thunderstorms still confined to the western part of the CWA, but continue to track eastward. As they do, they are encountering a much less favorable area for strong to severe weather, so it looks like it will just be a rain/lightning threat for the remainder of the nighttime period. No changes made to winds or temperatures at this time. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night) Issued at 351 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Severe Thunderstorm Watch 619 was recently issued for counties west of the James valley. Thus far, storms have been firing across ND, but will be watching for additional development further south into north central SD over the next hour or two. Stratus continues to hang on strong for much of the CWA, with clearing only evident 1 row of counties east of the Missouri River. Instability axis is across central SD at this time, with the cap basically eroded. Not sure how far east the severe threat will occur this evening due to the abundance of stratus. CAMs have been hinting at a slower onset of storms and their eastward speed, so have made the appropriate adjustments in the grids. For Monday, breezy northwest winds will develop by late morning. Steep lapse rates in the afternoon may bring a few widely scattered showers or thundershowers. Expanded POPs a bit further westward across the CWA based on some of the CAM output. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 351 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019 Mid level trof/low will be in the progress of forming over south central Canada early in the period, and then should migrate toward the eastern Great Lakes by the mid to latter part of the week as energy continues to rotate through the southern part of the trof. There would appear to be some sort of shower chance on Tuesday afternoon as low level lapse rates steepen up under cold temps aloft. Coverage will probably be isolated at best, and have added pops to the forecast for said time period. Showers should die off pretty quickly in the early evening. The rest of the work week looks pretty mild and dry as surface high pressure makes a couple visits to the region. The front that comes through Thursday looks dry, but some activity may advect off the High Plains come early next weekend. Temperatures will likely average out below normal for the long term. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night) Issued at 1217 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will track across the area during the overnight hours, possibly lingering across the east into part of the morning. Periods of IFR/MVFR cigs and MVFR vsbys will be possible with the precipitation. May see some lower cigs linger through the day Monday across the far east, while the rest of the area will see VFR conditions all day. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Parkin SHORT TERM...TMT LONG TERM...TDK AVIATION...Parkin

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