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000
FXUS63 KABR 260518
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1218 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 912 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

Showers and thunderstorms still confined to the western part of
the CWA, but continue to track eastward. As they do, they are
encountering a much less favorable area for strong to severe
weather, so it looks like it will just be a rain/lightning threat
for the remainder of the nighttime period. No changes made to
winds or temperatures at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 619 was recently issued for counties west
of the James valley. Thus far, storms have been firing across ND,
but will be watching for additional development further south into
north central SD over the next hour or two. Stratus continues to
hang on strong for much of the CWA, with clearing only evident 1 row
of counties east of the Missouri River. Instability axis is across
central SD at this time, with the cap basically eroded. Not sure how
far east the severe threat will occur this evening due to the
abundance of stratus. CAMs have been hinting at a slower onset of
storms and their eastward speed, so have made the appropriate
adjustments in the grids.

For Monday, breezy northwest winds will develop by late morning.
Steep lapse rates in the afternoon may bring a few widely scattered
showers or thundershowers. Expanded POPs a bit further westward
across the CWA based on some of the CAM output.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2019

Mid level trof/low will be in the progress of forming over south
central Canada early in the period, and then should migrate toward
the eastern Great Lakes by the mid to latter part of the week as
energy continues to rotate through the southern part of the trof.

There would appear to be some sort of shower chance on Tuesday
afternoon as low level lapse rates steepen up under cold temps
aloft. Coverage will probably be isolated at best, and have added
pops to the forecast for said time period. Showers should die off
pretty quickly in the early evening.

The rest of the work week looks pretty mild and dry as surface high
pressure makes a couple visits to the region. The front that comes
through Thursday looks dry, but some activity may advect off the
High Plains come early next weekend. Temperatures will likely
average out below normal for the long term.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will track across the area
during the overnight hours, possibly lingering across the east into
part of the morning. Periods of IFR/MVFR cigs and MVFR vsbys will be
possible with the precipitation. May see some lower cigs linger
through the day Monday across the far east, while the rest of the
area will see VFR conditions all day.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Parkin
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...Parkin