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000
FXUS63 KABR 011052
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
452 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 451 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

Stratus has set up on the edges of some thermal packing as high
pressure builds into the eastern Dakotas this morning. Scattered
flurries have been observed with the stratus. Warm air advection is
expected to push in from the west late today as upper ridging builds
over the Rockies. Temperatures will remain fairly cool even with the
waa due to timing and fresh snow. Lowered guidance highs in south
central SD by 5 to 8 degrees. Warmest temps will occur in snow-free
areas across north central SD today.

Winds will shift to the south and southwest ahead of an approaching
front by this evening. This will set up some downsloping tonight
ahead of the front. Areas of blowing snow will be possible with some
blowing and drifting along I-29. Winds speeds tonight will need a
second look as models may be under doing the gusts given decent
lapse rates and dry mid levels. The front will move through dry
Tuesday morning. H85 temps will rise from -8C this morning to +4C on
Tuesday. Highs, while still moderated by the snow, should rise
into the 40s and 50s in central SD allowing for a quick melt.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 451 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

To start the period, a ridge builds into the region Wednesday and
becomes the dominant feature through at least Saturday night.  This
will contribute to above average temperatures across the board
through the period.  There still remains some question as to how
much snow cover will be on the ground Wednesday afternoon.  Clear
skies, and thus ample March sun, are expected through most of the
prior period.  In addition, well above freezing temperatures are
forecast for Tuesday.  Thus even in areas with 3 to 4 inches of snow
from this past Saturday night`s system, it seems unlikely much snow
will remain on the ground (other than in piles) in central South
Dakota come Wednesday.  Cooler temps and more snow depth will likely
mean snow remains in portions of east central South Dakota, however.
With sunny skies forecast again on Wednesday and westerly winds
(albeit fairly light), went ahead and bumped up temps slightly
without factoring in snow cover inhibiting highs in central South
Dakota. Also in continuing prior forecast trends, bumped up temps
slightly for Saturday and Sunday. Bone dry conditions remain the
most plausible scenario through the extended.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 451 AM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

Stratus and flurries will periodically reduce vsby and cigs to
IFR/MVFR until 15z. Then expect all sites to improve to VFR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Telken
AVIATION...Wise