Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 231117 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
617 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018

Another dry and sunny day is on tap for the region as s/w ridge
continues to build into the region. Temperatures remain the biggest
challenge. For the last few days we`ve been under forecasting high
temperatures. Feel that may be the case again today, given LL
thermal progs off 00z model runs. Biggest issue arguing against
raising temps significantly above guidance is that LL winds will
gradually favor southeast, which typically doesn`t allow for the
best mixing.  That said LL lapse rates should be steep up to H9 or a
bit, went with the warmest guidance we have, and added a
couple degrees here and there. For tnt, LLJ kicks in and keeps
temperatures from falling off too much.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018

Models are beginning to show a wetter pattern during the long term
portion of the forecast. The period begins with an upper level
trough slowly crossing the region with rain possible, mainly
Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon. The climatology
calibrated precipitation analysis is showing a high probability of
seeing measurable pcpn, greater than 50 percent. Rainfall amount
should range below a quarter of an inch for most locations. There is
a low probability, 10 to 20 percent of seeing amounts 0.4 inches.

After a brief dry period Thursday night into Friday morning, an
upper level shortwave could traverse southeastward across the area
Friday afternoon through Friday night. This system could bring light
pcpn, but also gusty northwesterly winds. Another upper level
shortwave could progress across the region on Saturday night.
Precipitation chances are best in North Dakota with this system.

Models diverge early next week with the GFS showing a large scale
storm system impacting the region by Tuesday. The ECMWF shows mostly
a passing wave. Climate signals, negative WPO and EPO do support a
colder time period around Halloween.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 616 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018

VFR skies/vsbys are expected through the taf valid period.




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