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000
FXUS63 KABR 021126 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
526 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 415 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021

Temperatures are the main challenge in the short term.

This morning, downslope winds continue along the Prairie Coteau.
Gusts up to 60 mph have been observed at times. Expect winds to
slowly diminish by early afternoon as winds shift behind a dry
fropa.

The snow pack is still in place along and south of Hwy 212. Until
winds shift to the northwest behind the front, the same issue of sfc
colder air advecting off the snow will remain even for areas that
are snow-free. As the wind direction changes, however, there will be
good mixing but some mild caa from the northwest at H85. That said,
continued to go on the warmer side of guidance this afternoon with
highs across the north. Dropped highs in areas with snow cover about
5 degrees. Even if they do not reach full potential, temperatures
should be well into melting territory in the 40s. Therefore, expect
temps to rebound on Wednesday across central SD as upper ridging
builds further into the northern Plains. May be a little too
optimistic on highs across Deuel and Hamlin counties, though.

The warmer temperatures and breezy northwest winds this afternoon
will result in high to very high fire danger across north central
SD.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 415 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021

The main focus in the extended period is temperatures, with highs
around 15 degrees above average. An upper-level ridge will already
be well-established by Thursday, and it only intensifies into
Friday. NAEFS and ECMWF ensemble means of geopotential height climb
to the 97.5th plus percentile from Thursday evening through Saturday
morning, particularly at 700mb, relative to this time of year. Sfc
high pressure will continue to allow for plentiful sunshine as well,
further accelerating the melting of whatever snow pack remains (thus
having little to no dampening impact on temperatures). Given all
this, have nudged up inherited high temps for Thu, Fri and Sat.
Easterly breezes Thursday may keep conditions a little bit cooler
across the eastern CWA than they would have otherwise been, given
the deeper snow pack that currently exists across much of Minnesota.

A shortwave trough may infringe upon the Northern Plains for the
weekend, nonetheless, temperatures are to remain much above normal.
Up until this point in the extended period, fire weather concerns
have been somewhat limited given the relatively light sfc winds
(despite 30s or lower percent RH especially across central SD).
However, this shortwave and associated sfc low would lead to
increased southerly winds, and thus increased fire concerns. Fuels
will remain dry as Moderate to Severe Drought will have had no
opportunity to improve by this time. In fact, very little to no
precipitation is forecast through this period (somewhat of a cut-off
low looks to stay south of the CWA Thursday evening, leading to
perhaps just some low cloud cover across our area).

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 525 AM CST Tue Mar 2 2021

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected through the day. Breezy south to
southwest winds this morning will shift to the northwest through
the day behind a front.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Lueck
AVIATION...Wise