Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 050143 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
843 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020

Issued at 835 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020

Updated PoPs over the next few hours to better reflect the gap
between exiting shortwave energy that continues creating showers
and thunderstorms over southeastern South Dakota, and the second
wave of energy that will produce additional showers and
thunderstorms tonight and into Wednesday. Models still aren`t real
consistent in timing, locations, and coverage, so left some
mentions in around midnight for the central forecast area where
initial showers and thunderstorms may develop shortly after
midnight. Better chances for precipitation are after 9Z and through
the afternoon on Wednesday.

UPDATE Issued at 622 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020

See updated aviation discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020

Vort max continues to move southeast across central SD, with showers
and thunderstorms associated with it. Near stationary storm movement
over north central SD has brought localized heavy rainfall, with
radar estimates in the 1 to 2 inch range. CREST starting to show
some response in northern Dewey county, but thankfully the heaviest
rain is shifting southward. Given the current parameters, we could
still see a couple strong to perhaps severe storms. This is just the
first wave. The main shortwave energy will track southeast across
the area late tonight and into Wednesday. By then, the precip
potential will shift into northeast SD and over into west central
MN. Once again on Wednesday, we could be looking at a few strong to
perhaps severe storms - this time over the southeast corner of the
CWA, with a wind shift providing for surface convergence.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 356 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020

Upper level ridging will build over the region for Thursday as an
upper level low pressure trough lifts across the Pacific Northwest
and into southern Canada into Friday. This will then move across
southern Canada flattening the upper ridge out over our region into
the weekend. The upper level flow will then become westerly into
early next week. The return surface flow of higher dew points along
with warmer temperatures will result in increasing heat indices and
increasing instability. With low and mid level waa lift, llj at
times, surface boundary fluctuations, along with the forcing from
upper level short waves, several rounds of thunderstorms are
expected through the long term. Highs through the period will be
mostly in the 80s and lower 90s. Friday looks to be the hottest day
with highs mostly in the 90s with the highest dew points in the
upper 60s to the lower 70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2020


Thunderstorms are presently ongoing in portions of central South
Dakota, although none of the forecast area`s TAF sites look to be
affected this evening. There is another chance of isolated to
scattered thunderstorms overnight and through Wednesday afternoon.
Should any storms develop, the TAF sites most likely to be
affected are the eastern sites of KABR and KATY. VFR ceilings and
visibilities are expected through the TAF period. The exception
being KATY and KABR that could see a brief dip down to MVFR
ceilings Wednesday morning. In addition, should thunderstorms
occur, additional brief drops in ceilings and visibilities, as
well as erratic winds, will be possible.

***Construction to improve taxiways at both KABR/KPIR terminals
may cause an occasional temporary visibility reduction due
to blowing dust (bldu), mainly during daytime hours UFN.




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