Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 100156 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
856 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

Issued at 852 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

Forecast is in fine shape overall with isold/sct storms continuing
well into the evening. More activity coming out of ND suggests a
continuation of the activity, despite the lack of a decent
nocturnal LLJ. Temps look fine for now.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

Showers and thunderstorms should continue impacting the Missouri
Valley through this evening, with the HREF and HRRR showing central
SD having the best potential for much needed rainfall. While severe
weather is not expected, a few storms may produce small hail and 40
to 50 mph wind gusts. Additional weak thunderstorms may develop over
northeastern South Dakota and western MN this afternoon and evening.

A cold front, currently across northern Montana and northern North
Dakota will slide southward across the area later tonight and
through the morning hours on Saturday. Additional showers and
thunderstorms will be possible along the frontal boundary, mainly
south of Highway 212. Winds should increase from the northeast
behind the frontal boundary with gusts of 20 to 25 knots possible.
Cooler, or near seasonal average, temperatures can be expected on
Saturday with highs in the mid to upper 70s. The RAP near-surface
smoke still suggests reduced visibility due to smoke during the mid
afternoon hours on Saturday. While smoke was not added to the
forecast, the sky cover has been increased to 30 to 40 percent.
Saturday night will feature dry conditions with low temperatures
dropping into the upper 40s, to the low 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023

By 12z Sunday, at the start of the period, a cold front will have
already passed to the south of the CWA and high pressure will be in
place along with a cooler and drier airmass. PWAT values at 12z
Sunday should be between 0.5" and 0.75" per the NAEFS and ECMWF
means, which is a ~0.5 to 0.75" decrease from 24 hours prior. High
temperatures should be in the 70s Sunday, which is approximately at
or up to 5 degrees below normal for this time of year across the
area. Sfc dewpoints will struggle to reach 50 degrees, with
northeasterly breezes, under mostly sunny skies.

The upper-level pattern begins with an Omega block, aka upper-level
ridge centered near the Front Range with two large upper lows on
either side, and this should more or less persist through the middle
of the week. However, a shortwave then closed upper-low tries to
move east across southern Canada thereafter, which could lead to a
break-down of the upper-ridge across the Northern Plains and a
period of westerly or northwesterly flow aloft. 21% of the ensemble
membership from the WPC Clusters page still keeps the upper-ridge
squarely across the Northern Plains on Friday, including 28% of the
ECMWF membership, and another 33% has the upper-ridge axis nearby,
across the MN/WI border Friday. Point being, there`s no consensus on
how things will evolve which leads to forecast uncertainty for
things like PoPs and temperatures. In any case, the heat should make
a bit of a comeback for Tuesday through Thursday, with continued
predominantly dry conditions (can`t rule out the potential for
afternoon peak heating-induced spotty shower and storm development
by Wed/Thu as there should be a gradual return of Gulf moisture by
then). However, just how hot remains a question, as 500mb heights
are actually near climatological normals, aka no strong anomalies.
Most likely highs in the mid to upper 80s, locally higher.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Fri Jun 9 2023


VFR skies/vsbys will be predominant but some late night MVFR cigs
are possible. Isold storms are possible through the night.




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