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000
FXUS63 KABR 181934
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
234 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

A bit more active/rainy weather headed toward the region in the very
short range. First off for tonight, a wave moving across North
Dakota could continue to kick off some shower, especially west
river, and before the sun sets and we lose diabatic heating. Later
tonight another wave of energy is expected to move into the state,
and then across the region during the day on Wednesday.
Precipitation chances look pretty good, especially across the
northern CWA. Severe chances still look on the low side, but if
there are isolated strong to severe storms, they`ll probably
form/occur over the Missouri valley where MLCapes reach 1k j/kg or
so in the afternoon, and mid level winds increase leading to a bit
better deep layer shear. A stronger wave moves across the region
late Wednesday night into Thursday. Overnight timing of this wave
will probably negate much severe weather, but something to keep an
eye on. Temperatures will be mild through Wednesday night.  Cloud
cover may play a roll in Wednesday`s highs, so back off a couple
degrees said time period.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

Not much change in the overall pattern from previous forecast
package release early this morning. An expansive upper level low
pressure system across the Pacific Northwest at the onset of the
term will translate eastward across the northern tier of the CONUS
by the end of the week into the weekend. Periods of s/w energy
rotating around the large upper lvl system will traverse through our
region on southwesterly flow aloft. This in combination with sfc
low`s/frontal boundaries in the area will give us continued chances
for showers and thunderstorms through at least the first half of the
forecast period. Severe weather potential looks muted with the 1st
system moving through earlier in the day Thursday. The 2nd system
progged to move through the latter half of the day Friday could have
some better ingredients to work with in terms of favorable
instability and shear. Temperature trends will remain below normal
through the end of the week before climbing back closer to normal
early next week.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

VFR skies/vsbys are expected through tonight. Showers and a few
thunderstorms will move from western and into central South Dakota
tonight, and then into northeast South Dakota on Wednesday.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...Vipond
AVIATION...TDK