Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 202336 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
636 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019

Making some minor tweaks to pops this evening as showers are
having a difficult time developing. Otherwise, the forecast is on
track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019

As of 20Z, the CWA is situated within the warm sector of a low
pressure system with temperatures in the upper 70s and mid 80s. A
surface cold front is sliding southward across western South Dakota
with winds shifting to the northwest then northeast. Light
showers have been ongoing over North Dakota, with no activity in
this CWA. As the front sags southward tonight, isolated to
scattered showers will be possible in the northeastern CWA. This
activity should push east into Minnesota before 12Z Sunday.
Several models are depicting mostly dry conditions over this CWA
on Sunday with some light showers possible west river.

A low pressure system passing south and east of the region Sunday
night will bring showers into a good portion of South Dakota. North
central South Dakota should see dry conditions Sunday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019

The period begins with some ongoing rain as a surface low over
eastern Nebraska/western Iowa slowly moves off to the east
northeast. This precipitation will linger over the far southern and
especially the far eastern CWA throughout the daytime hours as the
low moves eastward throughout the day.  With the lack of any
instability, any precipitation is likely to be in the form of rain
showers.

High pressure builds into the region Tuesday before a cold frontal
boundary pushes through the region Wednesday.  This provides the
next chance of precipitation, though it is not expected to be real
widespread or produce much total QPF.  A rumble or two of thunder is
not out of the question at this time.  A surface low then pushes
across South Dakota and into Minnesota next weekend. This creates a
couple of better chances for precipitation Friday and especially
Saturday, where conditions will also be breezy to windy. Models are
in a bit of disagreement as to any accompanying instability with
this system. The Canadian and GFS hint at 1000+ J/kg MUCape, while
the EC tamps it down.  Used model probabilities for thunder which
has produced just rain for now. Left it at that due to being near
the end of the period, but would not be surprised to see a few
thunderstorms next weekend.

Beyond any precipitation chances, high temps look to be seasonable
to slightly above average for this time of year.  Lows are generally
expected to be above average.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019

VFR conditions will deteriorate after 12z as a cold front pushes
through the region and brings MVFR cigs and gusty northeast winds.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Wise
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...Telken
AVIATION...Wise


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