Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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629
FXUS63 KABR 200846
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
246 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 245 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2020

The main forecast challenges in the short range are temps/winds for
Tuesday. A mid-level ridge will advect east across the region early
this week, with all remnants of arctic air advecting off to the east
with the departing cold sfc low. However, today will remain cold
under the influence of that cold high, with temperatures struggling
to exceed zero over the eastern CWA. The western forecast area
should get into the teens, especially west river. As south breezes
invade the region tonight, temperatures are expected to gradually
climb, especially after midnight. That WAA will continue on Tuesday
as strong south winds develop across the area (especially over the
Coteau) behind the sfc low. 1/2km winds are forecast to reach 50+
knots over this region during the afternoon. Model soundings don`t
show much of a mixing layer and thus it`s hard to say exactly how
strong sfc winds will get. But, the higher elevations in the
northeast probably will achieve some healthy gusts. Temperatures are
the next issue. H85 temps (C) swell into the singles digits above
zero, and 1/2km temps (C) soar to above zero readings too. How much
of this "warmth" will make its way to the sfc? With soundings not
indicating much of a mixing depth, am inclined to stick fairly close
to the latest model blend. That said, we are still forecasting highs
for Tuesday on the high end of the model spread. Lastly, depending
upon temperatures, blowing and drifting snow is of some concern over
the Glacial Lakes region with those strong winds on Tuesday.
Temperature forecasts suggest patchy blowing snow is likely. But, if
forecast temperatures are too warm, additional blowing snow is
possible.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 245 AM CST Mon Jan 20 2020

The long term portion of the forecast will feature mostly dry
conditions, along with above normal temperatures.

The period begins Tuesday night with strong south-southeasterly
winds over the eastern CWA with a potential down-slope wind event.
Even through temperatures warm on Tuesday, will maintain patchy
blowing snow over the higher terrain areas of the Prairie Coteau.
Westerly winds will bring warm air into the area on Wednesday with
highs reaching the upper 20s, to the mid 30s.

A weak mid level trough will slowly cross the region Wednesday night
through Thursday tonight with light snow possible, mainly for
central South Dakota. The storms does strengthen southeast of the
area with light snow, and breezy northerly winds possible into the
morning hours on Friday, mainly for the eastern SD and western MN.
High pressure will cross the region on Friday, with high
temperatures in the low to mid 20s. Friday appears to be the coldest
day in the long term as ridging aloft will finally bring warmer air
into the Northern Plains Saturday through at least Monday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST Sun Jan 19 2020

Aside from a little fog potential at KMBG in the morning, VFR
conditions are expected over the next 24 hours at all four
terminals.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...Dorn



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