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000
FXUS63 KABR 302016
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
316 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020

The region will be situated between high pressure to the east and
low pressure approaching from the west tonight. An area of
precipitation already ongoing over central Nebraska will continue to
push northward this evening and tonight, and may bring some light
rain accumulations to the eastern part of the CWA. Tuesday will be
mostly dry and mild as southerly flow sets up. The low and
associated frontal boundary will track across all but the far
eastern part of the area Tuesday night. It looks as though the best
chances for precipitation will be north of the area where there will
be better upper level support, but cannot rule out some shower
activity, and possibly a few rumbles of thunder, across the northern
part of the CWA as some weak CAPE and shear develop along the
boundary.

Low temperatures tonight will generally be in the upper 30s to lower
40s, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s on Tuesday. Lows on
Tuesday night will range from the mid 30s northwest to the lower 40s
east.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020

Models starting to come into agreement a bit in regards to the storm
system moving through on Thursday. Still some big details to iron
out, especially where the rain/snow line sets up, as well as the
icing potential. Soundings do still show some uncertainties on what
the thermal profiles will look like Wednesday night into Thursday,
which will play a big role to the overall icing potential and precip
type. It would still appear that the heaviest snow totals will set
up over western and central SD, where light to moderate
accumulations are possible. Still plenty of mild air across the area
out ahead of the approaching storm system. Highs have been increased
a bit on Wednesday across the eastern CWA as it appears temps around
60 still seem likely before the front moves in. Cooler temperatures
will then move in for the end of the week and persist through the
weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2020

VFR conditions will prevail across the area through midday
Tuesday. The eastern part of the area may see some rain shower
development late tonight into early Tuesday morning, with periods
of MVFR cigs possible.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...Parkin