Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 162133
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
333 PM CST Fri Nov 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 332 PM CST Fri Nov 16 2018

Light to moderate snow continues across northern SD, with plenty
still to come upstream. Still expecting a swath of mainly 2 to 5
inches in and around the Winter Weather Advisory area, with a few
locations possibly getting around 6 inches. Earlier reports of 3 to
4 inches in the Eureka area so could be on their way to around 6
inches there when things are said and done. Focus of the heaviest
band of snow is slowly sinking south-southwest through the afternoon
and will see this trend continue into the evening. Still expecting
winds to increase by this evening, which will bring some blowing and
drifting snow as well. Will keep Winter Weather Advisory in place
through the evening hours.

Lows tonight will generally be in the teens as low level cold air
advection increases as the night goes on. Could even be a few single
digits sneaking into the northern counties. Winds will gradually
subside towards daybreak Saturday, with winds becoming light during
the day as surface high pressure moves in.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Friday)
Issued at 332 PM CST Fri Nov 16 2018

Cold, much below average air will remain in place Saturday night
into Sunday morning across the area thanks to fresh snow cover and
clear skies due to surface high pressure. Temperatures are likely to
decrease fairly quickly after sunset, into the mid teens to mid
single digits or colder, but may moderate slightly late Saturday
night into Sunday morning thanks to increasing southerly winds,
which should prevent ideal radiational cooling. Nonetheless,
superblend appeared too warm for lows across portions of the James
River Valley - adjusted accordingly. Warm air advection should help
bump high temperatures on Sunday near/over the melting point for
highs. This, ahead of a weak disturbance which could yield scattered
light snow showers Sunday night into Monday morning. Another weak
disturbance similarly rides Northwest flow aloft into the Northern
Plains Monday night into Tuesday morning, bringing another chance at
light snow showers.

By mid next week, ridging develops aloft and warmer, more seasonable
air should be allowed to return (highs of 40-50 degrees across the
forecast area). Conditions look to be dry to end the week as well.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Fri Nov 16 2018

MVFR/IFR CIGs/VSBY in -SN/SN/+SN will persist across KMBG and KABR
into the evening hours, with BLSN developing by late afternoon and
evening. These conditions will eventually make it into KATY by
early afternoon. VSBY will improve later tonight, but expect
MVFR/IFR CIGs to continue through the TAF forecast period. Across
KPIR, VSBY expected to remain VFR as SN will largely miss the
area, although MVFR/IFR CIGs will persist well through the
forecast period.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for
     SDZ004>008-010-011-020-021-023.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for MNZ039-
     046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...Lueck
AVIATION...TMT



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