433
FXUS61 KBGM 160555
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
155 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong storm system will impact the area today, bringing rain
showers and windy conditions along with a chance for localized
flooding and thunderstorms. Showers shift east Monday, with
temporarily cooler weather. Warm temperatures return on Tuesday
and likely last through Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945 PM Update...
Wind Advisory is going into effect at 11 PM. That said, it has
been fairly gusty this afternoon-evening, though more in the
25-40 mph range for peak gusts. Winds will continue to increase
overnight, reaching their highest values mid morning into the
afternoon.

Timing of the showers is a bit tricky Sunday, because there may
be a couple waves; one that diminishes on it way into another
and then another that takes over and becomes the main batch.
Latest convection-allowing models (CAMS) and other hourly-
based guidance was harnessed to narrow down most likely timing
of that main batch of heavier rain and thunder on Sunday.
Roughly speaking that will be from 2 PM west-northwest to 9 PM
east-southeast. Also, hourly details for the exit of post-
frontal showers were finessed in this latest update for Sunday
night-early Monday.

Previous discussion...
Main concerns in the near term period will be the marginal risk
for isolated heavy rainfall, flooding potential over Oneida
county due to rainfall on top of rapidly melting snow, and
strong/gusty south winds over the area. Wind advisory was
expanded to now include Tompkins, Cortland and Southern Oneida
counties tonight into Sunday, where wind gusts up to around 50
mph are expected.

Just an isolated shower or patchy drizzle possible heading into
this evening, otherwise skies are partly sunny to mostly cloudy
around the region. Temperatures are variable, ranging from the
40s in the Poconos, to upper 50s and 60s across Central NY.

Tonight, with strengthening southerly flow, gusty winds will
develop. Forecast soundings show a strong inversion 1000 feet
above the surface for most of the area but downslope regions on
the north side of the Poconos, the Finger Lakes, and hills south
of Syracuse/Utica region will see some of these strong winds
mixing to the surface. BUFKIT soundings from Penn Yan show 65+
mph winds under 3000 feet above the surface with a weaker
surface inversion. Given the low level stability even there the
winds will struggle to mix down but some 40-50+ mph gusts are
likely. With greatest confidence in higher winds in the lee of
the hills in the Finger Lakes, and south of Syracuse/Utica a
wind advisory has been issued for this region. Staying unseasonably
warm, with overnight lows in the upper 40s to 50s areawide.

The snow pack that remains in the Tug Hill has become ripe with
snow temperatures around 32 degrees. Melting will accelerate
the next 24-36 hours as dew points increase into the 50s along
with the winds helping to increase the heat flux into the snow
pack. Good news for today`s model runs has been for lower
rainfall across the Tug Hill (0.70 to 1.10") but even with
rainfall amounts likely staying under or around an inch for most
of the region with remaining snow pack, it won`t take much to
push rivers/creeks out of their banks. Still with the convective
line moving through, there are HREF members with strips of
higher rainfall over an inch in a 3 hour period so dependent on
where these convective lines set up, flash flooding is a concern
in Oneida county as much of that water will run into the water
ways in addition to accelerating snow melt. The flood watch for
all of Oneida county remains unchanged with this update.

The cold front will continue its progression eastward through
the area Sunday evening. Showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will
be most likely west of I-81 before midnight, before the front
clears the area. SPC continues to highlight a marginal risk for
severe storms, with strong, potentially damaging winds as the
frontal squall line pushes through in the late afternoon and
evening hours. Highs on Sunday reach up into the 60s.

A few lingering showers will still be possible after midnight,
but otherwise a drying trend is expected the remainder of the
night. Low temperatures by daybreak Monday morning will likely
be in the 30s to lower 40s west of I-81, with upper 30s to mid
40s east of I-81.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
220 PM Update...
High pressure quickly takes over to quiet things down for the
first couple days of the workweek.

Post-frontal clouds, and northwest winds gusting 10-20 mph or
so, will still be going for much of Monday; even lingering
showers generally east of I-81 mainly in the morning. However, a
surface ridge of high pressure will be building in which will
allow winds to go light and variable Monday night. Monday
itself will be cool but not that cold for this time of year,
with highs of upper 30s to upper 40s; near 50 around the PA-NJ-
NY tri-section. Clearing sky and calming wind will allow
radiational cooling to achieve lows of 20s-near 30.

Light southwest flow on the back side of the surface ridge, in
addition to ridging aloft and abundant sunshine, will quickly
boost temperatures right back up to above normal values Tuesday.
As is common with this type of pattern and time of year, there
is a lot of dry air above the boundary layer which will mix down
in the afternoon to yield below-guidance dewpoints and above-
guidance temperatures. Highs of upper 50s-mid 60s will combine
with 20s dewpoints to derive minimum humidity values in only the
20-30 percent range. Thankfully winds will be quite light to
generally mitigate the fire weather threat, but any dead grass
and leaf litter will naturally dry out quickly and so please
follow any burning regulations or bans in place for your area.
With the warmer air mass advecting in, lows Tuesday night will
not be as chilly; in the lower 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
220 PM Update...
Another swing in temperatures foreseen mid-to-late week, from
well above normal to chilly by Friday even if it does not end up
lasting very long.

Deep southwesterly flow will keep pumping in warmer air
Wednesday, but moisture will be slower to arrive and thus
looking at another above guidance temperatures/below guidance
dewpoints situation given the amount of dry air just above the
boundary layer. High thin clouds will advance in during the
afternoon but not enough to prevent widespread 60s to near 70
for temperatures and upper 20s-mid 30s percent for minimum
relative humidity. This time, southerly winds will be up a
notch especially in the Central Twin Tiers to Finger Lakes
areas where gusts should reach 15-25 mph, so fire weather
concerns will need to be monitored as things will have had a
couple days to dry out by then.

A cold front passage and upper level trough will bring the next
chance for rain showers on Thursday, though models disagree on
how long it takes to arrive; afternoon-evening is most probable
for showers. The system does not present very strongly nor with
a lot of moisture, thus rain amounts appear limited and thunder
chances below mentionable at this time. However, it will bring
in a quick shot of colder air to round out the week for Friday.
Models depict 850mb temperatures in the minus lower teens
Celsius which would be enough to generate a lake response along
with the aid of synoptic wrap around moisture aloft for at
least a small window of time. Thus a chance of lake effect snow
showers and flurries are in the forecast Friday for generally
Twin Tiers northward, especially towards the Thruway counties.
Highs are projected in the 30s to near 40.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Widespread MVFR to Fuel Alternate ceiling restrictions are
already present early this morning, besides at KSYR where it is
expected to remain VFR until this afternoon. KBGM will
occasionally see IFR ceiling restrictions this morning. Then
this afternoon, ceilings improve slightly, but a round of rain
showers is expected to move through the area from west to east
and bring additional restrictions. Thunder cannot be ruled out,
but confidence is not high enough to include it in the TAFs at
this time. After the showers move east of the terminals by this
evening, lingering ceiling restrictions of at least MVFR are
expected to remain for most terminals until at least the end of
the TAF period (at least through 06Z Monday).

Gusty southerly winds (occasional gusts of 35-40 kts) are
expected today, before diminishing this evening and shifting to
more west-northwesterly. LLWS is also expected through most of
the day, before dissipating this evening.

Outlook...

Monday...Post-frontal ceiling restrictions lingering into the
early afternoon, then gradual improvement back to VFR.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday...Occasional restrictions possible along with scattered
rain showers.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Moderate to locally heavy rainfall is expected today, which may
result in isolated flash flooding across Central NY and
Northeast PA. Of larger concern is this rainfall occurring in
Oneida County, particularly across northern Oneida County where
there is still between 6-12 inches of liquid contained within
the very deep snowpack. Warm temperatures are also expected,
coupled with gusty southerly winds and higher humidity. Snow
pack temperatures have risen to 32 degrees and is saturated so
rain will run directly into rivers. The warm rain will also help
accelerate snowmelt during the rainfall. The combination of the
rain and snowmelt is likely to cause flooding in parts of
Oneida County Sunday into Monday. The Fish Creek watershed is of
particular concern for flooding; both east and west branches
and especially from the confluence down through where it empties
into Oneida Lake at Sylvan Beach. However, the tributaries of
the Mohawk River upstream of Delta Lake are also looking to be
of higher concern. There is significant snow-water equivalent
in the headwaters of the branches; a big portion of which will
get sent down the branches of the Mohawk along with runoff from
any rain.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT this morning through Monday evening
     for NYZ009-037.
     Wind Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NYZ015>018-022-
     023-025-036-037-044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...MJM/MDP
SHORT TERM...BJG/MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...BJG
HYDROLOGY...