565
FXUS61 KBGM 140826
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
426 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer weather is expected today with some scattered afternoon
showers and thunderstorms. More rain showers with a few isolated
thunderstorms move in after sunset as another warm front lifts
into the region. Warmer but unsettled weather will continue into
the end of the week with at least a chance of afternoon showers
and thunderstorms each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 AM Update...

With a warm front north of our region, southerly winds have
kept most of the region mixed as well as warmer than previous
nights. Some of the deeper valleys have decoupled with light
winds and temperatures falling into the mid to upper 40s with
some fog development. Today, a broad upper level low will
traverse through the mid Atlantic with some falling 500 mb
heights that will help steepen mid level lapse rates.
Instability will be around 500 to 1000 J/kg this afternoon with
lessening CIN as the 500 mb shortwave moves in this evening.
With the upper level low near by and our region under the
trough, wind shear will be lacking with only 10 to 20 knots of
shear. With dry air in the boundary below the storms, initial
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon may be gusty but as
deeper moisture advects in and saturates much of the atmosphere,
there will just be garden variety showers and thunderstorms
this evening.

With continued warm air advection through tonight along with
cyclonic vorticity advection aloft, showers and isolated
thunderstorms will likely persist through the night into much of
the day tomorrow. Precipitable water values are mostly between
an inch to 1.25 inches and with overall weak lift, most areas
will see around a half inch of rain to an inch of rain over the
next 36 hours. Training showers and storms look unlikely given
the cloud layer winds and storm motion vectors dont line up but
with a warm front near by, if that stalls then under that
stalled front locations could get over an inch of rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
335 AM Update...

An exiting low pressure system south of the forecast area will
maintain light rain showers Wednesday night through Thursday. We
begin to see a decrease in rain showers heading into Thursday
night as weak ridging pushes up into the forecast area. This
will be a short-lived break before the next system moves into
the area Friday late afternoon. Southwesterly flow allows for a
warming trend, with temperatures recovering into the low- to
mid-70s from the mid- to high-60s that will occur on Wednesday.
Chances for afternoon thunderstorms on Thursday across the
Finger Lakes and northern Central NY region is possible, but
will most likely be non-severe.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
335 AM Update...

The next system drags a large cold front across our forecast
area on Saturday, dropping high temperatures back down into the
mid- to high-60s with rain showers. After Saturday, long-term
model guidance is all over the place for what may happen. The
ECMWF has the driest solution, with Central NY and NE PA
remaining mainly dry heading into the early week. The GFS and
Canadian models both have a solution where the main core of the
system impacting our area through the early week with continuous
rain showers and afternoon chances for thunderstorms. For now,
we went with the wetter solutions, until there is a better trend
of solutions that show a drier scenario.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through at least 18Z tomorrow at all
terminals. There is a very low chance of fog at ELM given that
the winds have become calm but strong winds just above the
surface should allow for mixing at times so did not put fog in
to the TAF. Tomorrow, showers and possibly thunderstorms form in
the afternoon across much of the area. Better chances of rain
hold off until after 0Z but SYR, ITH, and RME have a bit more
instability so showers and thunderstorms could get going around
20Z to 22Z but confidence on location of showers and storms is
low so no restrictions have been added.

Low level wind shear is possible tonight at KRME. 2k ft winds
are southwest at 30 kts with surface winds east at 6 kts.

Outlook...

Tuesday night through Wednesday...Periods of rain and possible
embedded thunderstorms look to bring widespread MVFR
restrictions. Periodic IFR also possible at some sites. Moderate
to high confidence

Thursday through Friday...Becoming VFR as a ridge of high
pressure moves overhead. Moderate confidence.

Saturday...The next system looks to enter the region Fri night
into Saturday with showers and storms and associated
restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG/MWG
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...AJG