


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
258 FXUS61 KBGM 150640 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 240 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure moves into the area today bringing mostly sunny skies and warm, muggy conditions. Heat remains through the end of the week with periodic rain and storms returning Wednesday through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 200 AM Forecast... A few isolated showers remain across the region that should dissipate in the next hour or so. Widespread fog is expected across the Southern Tier, Catskills and NEPA tonight as high pressure builds into the area. Temps tonight will remain warm and muggy, with temps and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Strong ridging from the surface to 500mb builds into the region today. Mostly sunny skies will push temperatures into the mid to upper 80s with valleys around 90. Dewpoints are a few degrees lower today so heat indices will remain below advisory criteria. A few showers and storms may pop up across the Catskills and Poconos this afternoon, but they are expected to be isolated and weak. Air quality will be an issue today across CNY as smoke from Canada slides into the region, thus an Air Quality Alert has been issued for small particulates. Tuesday night remains warm and muggy as the ridge axis slides east of the area and SW flow pushes a southern airmass into the region. Temps and dewpoints will be in the mid to upper 60s once again. Wednesday will remain hot and muggy, with temps and dewpoints a few degrees warmer than Tuesday. Heat indices are approaching advisory criteria for the northern Finger Lakes and Mohawk Valley, but confidence is low that they will get there. A strong shortwave is expected to move into the area Wed afternoon, kicking off clouds, showers and storms across the region, which could keep temperatures lower. Model soundings show a very moist atmosphere with long, skinny CAPE and deep warm cloud depths, leading to storms producing heavy rain and possible flash flooding. A Slight Risk for excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding is present across NEPA. With the recent heavy rain over this area Sunday and Monday, flash flooding will be achieved easier thus necessitating at the Slight Risk. The rest of the region is under a Marginal Risk where slow moving storms dropping heavy rain could cause isolated flash flooding issues. At this time, severe storms are not expected. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 120 PM Update Wednesday is expected to start out dry, but a shortwave looks to pass through the area in the afternoon, weakening the upper ridge enough to trigger some scattered to numerous showers and storms for the afternoon/evening hours. Some of these storms can once again produce very heavy rainfall as PWATs approach 2" and MUCAPE pushes 2500-3500 J/kg. With plenty of instability ,and deep layer shear around 30 kts projected Wednesday afternoon, some storms could produce locally strong winds in addition to heavy rainfall. High temperatures Wednesday range from the mid 80s to the low 90s. Factoring in dew points still in the upper 60s and low 70s, heat indices are expected to be in the mid 90s. As a result, heat headlines look possible across portions of CNY, especially for valley and urban areas. Lows Wednesday night range from the upper 60s to low 70s. Pieces of energy embedded in a relatively zonal 500mb flow will keep scattered to numerous showers and storms around on Thursday, especially during the afternoon. Again there will be the potential for some locally heavy and gusty storms with plenty of instability and PWATs around 1.6 to 1.8" on average. Temperatures, dew points and heat indices remain very similar to Wednesday over the region. A few showers or isolated t`stroms linger into Thursday night as a stronger front approaches from the west. Still muggy though with lows in the mid 60s to near 70 expected. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 125 PM Update The next cold front looks to cross the area Friday with additional showers and storms. The best chance looks to be across the NY southern Tier and NE PA, but will depend on the exact timing and location of the front. This front is trending stronger on the latest model guidance, meaning that behind it, there will actually be somewhat cooler and less humid conditions. Current NBM guidance brings in lower humidity and dew points to CNY by Friday afternoon, with highs in the 70s to around 80 expected. The humidity lingers in NE PA Friday afternoon, with dew points still in the upper 60s to low 70s....and high temps in the low to mid 80s. Cooler, more comfortable and dry conditions Friday night with lows in the mid-50s to lower 60s. High pressure and a drier trend seem to move in for the start of the upcoming weekend before perhaps some precipitation tries to return later Sunday into next Monday. Temperatures over the weekend look to be in the low to mid 80s with lows in the lower to mid 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Widespread fog is expected across the region tonight. ELM and AVP are currently IFR/LIFR and expected to remain here for most of the night. BGM/ITH should see IFR conditions start in the next couple of hours after clouds clear out. SYR and RME may see some patchy fog near daybreak with tempo IFR conditions. All terminals should become VFR by 12-13Z. Smoke is expected to move into the area today, but visibility is currently not expected to be impacted. Outlook... Tuesday Night through Wednesday AM... Mainly VFR. Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night...Scattered to numerous showers and t`storms could bring occasional restrictions. Thursday and Friday...Restrictions likely with a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Saturday...Mainly VFR expected. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...Air Quality Alert from 10 AM this morning to midnight EDT tonight for NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046- 055>057. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JTC NEAR TERM...JTC SHORT TERM...DK/MJM LONG TERM...DK/MJM AVIATION...JTC