258
FXUS61 KBGM 150640
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
240 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves into the area today bringing mostly sunny
skies and warm, muggy conditions. Heat remains through the end
of the week with periodic rain and storms returning Wednesday
through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
200 AM Forecast...

A few isolated showers remain across the region that should
dissipate in the next hour or so. Widespread fog is expected
across the Southern Tier, Catskills and NEPA tonight as high
pressure builds into the area. Temps tonight will remain warm
and muggy, with temps and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s.

Strong ridging from the surface to 500mb builds into the region
today. Mostly sunny skies will push temperatures into the mid to
upper 80s with valleys around 90. Dewpoints are a few degrees
lower today so heat indices will remain below advisory criteria.
A few showers and storms may pop up across the Catskills and
Poconos this afternoon, but they are expected to be isolated and
weak. Air quality will be an issue today across CNY as smoke
from Canada slides into the region, thus an Air Quality Alert
has been issued for small particulates.

Tuesday night remains warm and muggy as the ridge axis slides
east of the area and SW flow pushes a southern airmass into the
region. Temps and dewpoints will be in the mid to upper 60s once
again.

Wednesday will remain hot and muggy, with temps and dewpoints
a few degrees warmer than Tuesday. Heat indices are approaching
advisory criteria for the northern Finger Lakes and Mohawk
Valley, but confidence is low that they will get there. A strong
shortwave is expected to move into the area Wed afternoon,
kicking off clouds, showers and storms across the region, which
could keep temperatures lower. Model soundings show a very
moist atmosphere with long, skinny CAPE and deep warm cloud
depths, leading to storms producing heavy rain and possible
flash flooding. A Slight Risk for excessive rainfall leading to
flash flooding is present across NEPA. With the recent heavy
rain over this area Sunday and Monday, flash flooding will be
achieved easier thus necessitating at the Slight Risk. The rest
of the region is under a Marginal Risk where slow moving storms
dropping heavy rain could cause isolated flash flooding issues.
At this time, severe storms are not expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
120 PM Update

Wednesday is expected to start out dry, but a shortwave looks
to pass through the area in the afternoon, weakening the upper
ridge enough to trigger some scattered to numerous showers and
storms for the afternoon/evening hours. Some of these storms can
once again produce very heavy rainfall as PWATs approach 2" and
MUCAPE pushes 2500-3500 J/kg.

With plenty of instability ,and deep layer shear around 30 kts
projected Wednesday afternoon, some storms could produce locally
strong winds in addition to heavy rainfall. High temperatures
Wednesday range from the mid 80s to the low 90s. Factoring in
dew points still in the upper 60s and low 70s, heat indices are
expected to be in the mid 90s. As a result, heat headlines look
possible across portions of CNY, especially for valley and urban
areas. Lows Wednesday night range from the upper 60s to low 70s.

Pieces of energy embedded in a relatively zonal 500mb flow will
keep scattered to numerous showers and storms around on Thursday,
especially during the afternoon. Again there will be the potential
for some locally heavy and gusty storms with plenty of instability
and PWATs around 1.6 to 1.8" on average. Temperatures, dew
points and heat indices remain very similar to Wednesday over
the region. A few showers or isolated t`stroms linger into
Thursday night as a stronger front approaches from the west.
Still muggy though with lows in the mid 60s to near 70 expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
125 PM Update

The next cold front looks to cross the area Friday with additional
showers and storms. The best chance looks to be across the NY
southern Tier and NE PA, but will depend on the exact timing and
location of the front. This front is trending stronger on the
latest model guidance, meaning that behind it, there will
actually be somewhat cooler and less humid conditions. Current
NBM guidance brings in lower humidity and dew points to CNY by
Friday afternoon, with highs in the 70s to around 80 expected.
The humidity lingers in NE PA Friday afternoon, with dew points
still in the upper 60s to low 70s....and high temps in the low
to mid 80s. Cooler, more comfortable and dry conditions Friday
night with lows in the mid-50s to lower 60s.

High pressure and a drier trend seem to move in for the start
of the upcoming weekend before perhaps some precipitation tries
to return later Sunday into next Monday. Temperatures over the
weekend look to be in the low to mid 80s with lows in the lower
to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Widespread fog is expected across the region tonight. ELM and
AVP are currently IFR/LIFR and expected to remain here for most
of the night. BGM/ITH should see IFR conditions start in the
next couple of hours after clouds clear out. SYR and RME may see
some patchy fog near daybreak with tempo IFR conditions. All
terminals should become VFR by 12-13Z. Smoke is expected to move
into the area today, but visibility is currently not expected to
be impacted.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night through Wednesday AM... Mainly VFR.

Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night...Scattered to
numerous showers and t`storms could bring occasional
restrictions.

Thursday and Friday...Restrictions likely with a few rounds of
showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday...Mainly VFR expected.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert from 10 AM this morning to midnight EDT
     tonight for NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-
     055>057.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...DK/MJM
LONG TERM...DK/MJM
AVIATION...JTC