Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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648
FXUS63 KMKX 260750
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
250 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Today and tonight...Forecast confidence is high.

The heat builds today. A mid level short waves pushes east of
Wisconsin early this morning, bringing subsidence and a rather dry
column for today. Despite a decent amount of CAPE on the
soundings, the lack of moisture and any good forcing should
keep it dry across most of southern Wisconsin today and tonight.
The only exception is north of Milwaukee, toward Fond du Lac and
Sheboygan. A mid level wave will be tracking across the Lake
Superior and nrn WI region this afternoon. Convection across the
north could drift south into portions of east central Wisconsin
this afternoon. It`s a pretty small chance, but worthy of keeping
tabs on. Some of the models are trying to fire some convection
along the lake breeze this afternoon, but the convergence fields
and moisture just don`t look supportive enough for it.

So basically, hot and dry.

Sunday and Memorial Day - Confidence...Medium
Main story will be the heat with 500 millibar high in place across
the area. 925 temps will be in the 25c-27c range so highs will
reach the low/mid 90s for most areas. With projected MOS dew
points and anticipated mixing not expecting heat indices to get
out of hand (below advisory thresholds). Onshore winds that develop
will offer some cooler temps at times near the lake. With the
lack of any appreciable low level boundary and strength of 500
millibar high will keep a dry forecast in place.

Tuesday and Wednesday - Confidence...Medium
Lingering influence of surface ridging from the east along with an
approaching trough from the Plains, plus the northward movement of
the tropical system from the gulf of mexico will all play a role
in the forecast for this period. The ECMWF and GEM are the closest
call on the remnants of the tropical system though the GEM keeps
this moisture largely to our east. The latest ECMWF suggests even
more so than the prior 12z run that we may see some of this
moisture move in for Wednesday. This is also at a time when the
GFS is more bullish with the approaching plains trough though
keeping the tropical remnants further east. So will key on some of
the higher pops on Wednesday with either the approaching trough or
tropical remnants coming into play by then.

Thursday and Friday - Confidence...Medium
Lingering cyclonic northwest flow with a few embedded vort maxes
and a surface cold front will keep at least some chances of precip
in forecast, especially Thursday/Thursday evening. The ECMWF is
quicker to build back the heights into the area on Friday. Surface
ridging takes hold for Friday along with northeast winds.

&&

.AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...VFR conditions are expected through the TAF
period. A lake breeze, turning winds southeast, will kick in at
KMKE/KENW around 17-18z today, then back to south southwest this
evening.

&&

.MARINE...Winds and waves will be well below small craft advisory
levels into early next week. There could be some fog at times through
the weekend due to the warm and moist airmass in place across the
Great Lakes region.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...Davis
Sunday through Friday...Collar



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