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FXUS64 KEPZ 271737
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1137 AM MDT Fri May 27 2022

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE...
Genly VFR conditions with SKC-FEW250. Eastern Grant County and
most of Sierra County...large areas of smokey conditions with ocnl
SCT/BKN040 3-5SM FU near the Black Fire. Surface winds west
13-17G25KT until 03Z...then west/northwest 5-8KT. Some
thunderstorms in Chihuahuan Desert of Mexico could move up to near
the International Border with Luna, Dona Ana and El Paso Counties
between 02-06Z.

&&
Hefner

.PREV DISCUSSION...346 AM MDT Fri May 27 2022...

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and hot conditions are in store for the Borderland on Friday
and Saturday. The winds will become breezy to windy this weekend
and continue to be breezy into early next week. The temperatures
will cool off by a few degrees by the latter half of the weekend
into early next week. There will be a chance of showers and
thunderstorms by Wednesday and continuing on into Thursday of next
week. The temperatures by then will return to near normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...
Upper level high pressure was building across New Mexico this
morning. That will mean we will see another day without much winds.
We could be a little gusty this afternoon, but really not to bad at
all. But on the flip side, it will be hot across the region with
many lowland locations near or even a little above the triple digit
mark. This will be El Paso`s 2nd triple digit mark for May. The
record 100 degree days in May for El Paso is 5 days (1951 and 2005),
thankfully we won`t be breaking that record this year. Our skies
today will be clear. We will continue to see some hazy conditions
because of smoke from area wildfires, but most of the haze and lower
visibilities will be limited to Sierra County.

For tonight, we will have pleasant weather. Our winds will be from
the west at 5 to 15 mph. Our skies will be clear and the low
temperatures on Saturday morning will be nearly 10 degrees above
average for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM...
For Saturday, an upper level ridge of high pressure begins to
break down and shift to the east while a trough of low pressure
moves in across the western United States. The flow during the
day will be strong and from the southwest. This is due to a
surface leeside cyclone developing across eastern Colorado causing
the pressure gradient to tighten across the Borderland. As of
now, the winds appear to reach near advisor criteria with just a
few miles per hour short of 30 mph winds. The high temperatures in
the afternoon will be similar to that of Friday with dry air
subsidence aloft and a southwesterly flow at the surface.
Overnight Saturday, the winds will decrease especially after
midnight and with mostly clear skies, the low temperature on
Sunday morning will be in the upper 60s for El Paso. For Sunday,
energy associated with this low pressure system will stay far
north of our with dry weather persisting throughout the day. There
may be a few mid to high level passing clouds in the morning but
these clouds should clear out before noontime. The winds will
continue to be an issue for the entire CWA especially during the
afternoon hours. Another, leeside cyclone will develop across the
same area as it is expected to on Saturday. The winds by then
will be somewhat of a carbon copy of Saturday`s wind event. With
the trough gradually moving across the western half of the
country, the high temperatures should cool off a few degrees
for most of the area.

By Monday, the primary center of the main trough will be across
the Upper Mississippi Valley while a secondary low develops in the
Southwest. As the secondary low develops, the initial trough
deepens across the Southwest. Breezy conditions will continue on
on Monday afternoon with a surface trough across parts of the
Rockies and South Plains. With dry troughing aloft, the high
temperatures in the afternoon will be just a tad bit cooler than
Sunday`s high temperatures. On Tuesday, a shortwave trough
within the mainly flow will move from the southwest and into the
Rockies. The winds near the surface will not be as strong as they
are going to be this weekend; however, a few low end breezes are
possible by the afternoon. An elongated ridge of high pressure
will stretch from the Southeast and into northern Mexico overnight
Tuesday. This will be a good set up for monsoonal moisture to
move in causing the dryline to move across the middle of the CWA
on Wednesday. With diurnal heating and the PWAT values between
0.5 and 1.00 inches, a few showers and thunderstorms a possible at
first east of the Rio Grande especially by mid to late afternoon.
A cold front will move in late Wednesday that will also aid in
storm development on Wednesday night into to Thursday morning. As
this front gradually moves to the south of the area, moisture
will increase across the entire CWA. The dew point temperatures
will be in the 40s and 50s by then with the PWAT values between
0.8 and 1.0 inches. Showers and thunderstorms will continue
during the day on Thursday as the front washes out and the flow
transits from east or east northeast to a southeast. The MUCAPE
will range between 500 and 1000 J/kg with some areas near 1500
J/kg with lifted index values between -4 and -5C. This suggest
that some storms could be strong on Thursday. In addition to the
storms, temperatures will be near seasonal at the end of the
period due to rain cooled air and an increase in cloud coverage.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...Red Flag Warning for Saturday and a Fire Weather Watch for
Sunday...

Despite an upper level ridge which usually limits our winds, we will
see elevated fire weather conditions today. Winds this afternoon
will be in the 10 to 20 mph range, but when you combine that with
single digit RH`s that will add up to some elevated fire weather
concerns. Unfortunately the upper level ridge will move to our east
on Saturday and we will see an increase in our winds and even a
little drier conditions. We will likely see several hours of Red
Flag conditions Saturday afternoon and on Sunday as an upper level
trough moves across the intermountain west, we will again see windy
conditions with very dry min RH`s (single digits in the lowlands and
10 to 15% in area mountains). On Monday we will see only slightly
lower winds speeds and only slightly higher min RH`s, so we will
likely see Red Flag or near Red Flag conditions across much of the
area on Monday. On Tuesday we will see less winds, but we will still
be very dry. Then on Wednesday our winds will again increase, but
this time from the southeast, which will allow some moisture to move
into the region. Min RH`s on Wednesday will range from 15 to 25%
east of the Rio Grande to 10% (or less) west of the river. The
modest moisture will spread even further west on Thursday with min
RH readings of 10 to 20% west of the Rio Grande and 20 to 30% east
of the river. We could see a slight chance for thunderstorms both
Wednesday and Thursday, with the best chances for rain east of the
Rio Grande both days.

&&

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                101  69  99  68 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           95  66  94  64 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces             101  64  99  62 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              99  64  96  59 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              76  44  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   98  64  95  60 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             90  59  86  56 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  99  59  96  56 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               97  59  94  56 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro     101  69  98  65 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City              100  61  98  61 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock           103  64 100  62 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              94  63  92  62 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                 103  66 100  64 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            99  64  98  60 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          99  69  96  67 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           98  55  95  60 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   99  61  96  60 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                99  64  97  61 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               99  58  97  62 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 89  51  87  54 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               87  49  84  51 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                86  51  83  52 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 94  48  89  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               96  61  91  58 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               97  56  94  57 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            92  49  88  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  95  54  91  53 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   99  51  94  43 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              91  43  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 94  58  90  56 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  98  57  94  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 98  59  94  56 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          97  59  93  56 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              92  57  88  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Saturday for NMZ110>113.

     Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for NMZ110>113.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Saturday for TXZ055-056.

     Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
     for TXZ055-056.

&&

$$


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