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Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 101733
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1133 AM MDT Sat Jun 10 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 229 AM MDT Sat Jun 10 2023

Dry west to southwest flow aloft will continue, meaning little
chance of rain and a gradual warm up to the warmest temperatures
of the year. Sunday and Monday will see gusty afternoon winds with
elevated fire conditions. By Wednesday and especially Thursday and
Friday, we will likely see our first triple digit readings of the
year across the lowlands.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 AM MDT Sat Jun 10 2023

In the short term, WV imagery shows upper trough with weak
circulation now just east of the CWA. Attendant surface trough
moved through the El Paso metro area around midnight with wind
shift but not much gusts. Otherwise today, much like the rest of
the forecast period looks to remain dry. Some breezes this
afternoon, but then winds increase Sunday and Monday. Should
remain sub-advisory but fire conditions will become elevated all
areas and possibly critical over portions/all of southern New
Mexico. Strongest winds Sunday will be from about Deming west. A
Fire Watch is in effect for the NM Bootheel but the Gila/Black
Range may need a watch too (will recommend to the next shift).

Monday the winds become gusty again over a broader area of the
CWA, but still a bit lighter over west Texas. Will suggest to next
shift that Monday will need another Fire Watch for most/all of
southern NM.

Otherwise continued dry through Friday with a warm up. High
temperatures could reach triple digits for a few lowland sites
Wednesday, with better chances Thursday/Friday. Models differ
noticeably Thursday and Friday; GFS shows a small upper low
rapidly tracking across southern NM, while ECMWF shows none of
that. GFS solution would indicate another gusty day Thursday and
perhaps some clouds and virga/light showers Friday. For now will
side with the ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1132 AM MDT Sat Jun 10 2023

VFR conditions expected with FEW-SCT250. Winds will become breezy
this afternoon topping out around 15 knots with gusts to around 20
knots from the southwest to west. Winds will subside some after
dark except at ELP.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 229 AM MDT Sat Jun 10 2023

Dry, with gusty winds developing Sunday/Monday with elevated fire
conditions. Fire Watch remains in effect for zone 111 Sunday (may
need to be expanded to 110). Winds gusty again Monday across all
zones (bit less over west Texas). So critical fire conditions may
occur for all the southern NM zones. Above normal conditions kick
in by Wednesday and especially Thursday into next weekend. Triple
digit readings are likely across the lowlands and 75-90 degrees
over the mountain zones.

Min RHs: Lowlands 6-12% through Thursday. Mountains 10-20% through
Thursday. Vent rates very good-excellent through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  96  69  98  70 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            90  62  92  63 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               95  63  96  63 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               91  61  93  61 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               68  47  70  46 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    91  60  92  58 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              81  54  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   93  56  94  55 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                91  57  91  53 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       93  66  95  67 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                93  60  95  62 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             96  63  98  64 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               86  62  89  63 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   96  65  98  66 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             93  61  95  62 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           92  67  94  66 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            91  60  92  60 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    92  60  93  60 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 93  62  94  60 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                90  60  92  61 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  80  52  83  52 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                78  50  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 78  50  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  81  50  81  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                88  57  89  54 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                91  57  91  58 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             83  50  84  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   83  52  86  50 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    89  45  91  45 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               85  41  86  41 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  88  55  88  53 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   91  55  91  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  91  57  92  56 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           91  55  91  53 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               85  54  84  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
     for NMZ111.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17-Hefner
LONG TERM....17-Hefner
AVIATION...34-Brown
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
