Area Forecast Discussion
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356
FXUS64 KEPZ 141709
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1009 AM MST Thu Nov 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 155 AM MST Thu Nov 14 2024

Quiet weather conditions will persist for one more day before
conditions gradually become active. The winds will become breezy
to windy Friday through Saturday ahead of an incoming storm
system. This storm system will eventually move across our area
bringing a mix of a rain and snow to the mountains and rain to
the lowlands Saturday night through early Monday morning. A strong
cold front will accompany this system, which will bring cooler
temperatures to our area for much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 AM MST Thu Nov 14 2024

Currently, conditions are quiet with light winds, clear skies and
the temperatures on the cool side. For today, expect conditions to
be similar to that of yesterday as a ridge of high pressure
dominates our weather. The winds will generally be light and
variable and the skies sunny. With this ridge in place, the high
temperatures in the afternoon will be 5 to 10 degrees above the
normal for most of the area. For the rest of the week, conditions
will be mostly quiet with some breezy winds across the mountains
and Bootheel area. The high temperatures on Friday will be the
hottest of the week due to a strong southwesterly flow near the
surface. By Saturday, the winds will begin to pick up areawide as
a trough of low pressure digs across the Pacific Southwest. An
upper level jet will move over the Borderland on Saturday, and as
it does with some mixing down to the surface, the winds will
become breezy to windy especially during the afternoon hours. The
strongest winds will be in the Sacramento mountains. As of now,
the winds across the eastern slopes of the Sacramento Mountains
appear to reach near the criteria for an advisory. Should the
winds continue to be strong across the aforementioned area, an
advisory maybe be needed for Saturday.

Overnight Saturday into Sunday morning, the southern return branch
of the trough will close off into a low while sagging south
across the Far Southwest. This will allow for increasing moisture
with a chance for rain and snow showers in the mountains and snow
showers in the lowlands beginning as early as Saturday night.
Rain and snow will continue throughout the day on Sunday. This
low will gradually move across southern New Mexico and west Texas
Sunday night through Monday morning bringing additional rain and
snow to the mountains and rain showers to the the lowlands. The
snow level will start off above 7000ft along the Continental
Divide and above 9000ft east of the Divide. However, the snow
levels will lower to 6000ft along and slightly east of the Divide
and around 7000ft for the rest of the area very early Monday
morning. The upper level low will eventually eject into the
Southern Plains by midday, which will allow for drier air to move
in behind it. The winds on Monday do appear to be breezy to windy
with a boundary moving in. Cooler temperatures will be in place
for the rest of the forecast period with troughing across the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1002 AM MST Thu Nov 14 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Light and
variable winds continue under mainly SKC.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 155 AM MST Thu Nov 14 2024

For today, quiet weather conditions will be present. The 20ft
winds will be light and temperatures above the normal. Tonight
recover will be mainly fair. For Friday, somewhat similar
conditions to today are expected except for an increase in the
winds across the mountains and Bootheel area. For the rest of the
period, conditions will become active with strong winds on
Saturday to rain and snow in the mountains and rain in the
lowlands overnight Saturday through Monday morning. A cold front
will accompany a storm system early next week that will bring
cooler temperatures to our area. With that said, fire weather
conditions will be elevated to near critical on Friday for most
of the zones.

The min RHs today and on Friday will be below 18%. The min RHs on
Friday will be mostly in the single digits west of the Rio
Grande. The ventilation rates will poor to good today then poor
to excellent on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  74  47  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            71  44  77  45 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               70  39  76  43 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               69  41  74  46 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               55  37  55  37 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    68  38  74  41 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              67  42  68  37 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   72  35  77  38 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                71  37  75  35 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       72  48  77  51 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                72  39  78  41 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             78  44  84  44 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               69  47  71  47 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   76  43  80  44 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             70  40  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           69  47  75  49 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            69  37  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    72  35  77  42 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 69  38  77  41 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                69  41  73  44 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  70  39  69  43 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                64  38  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 62  36  64  37 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  64  31  67  32 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                69  37  74  39 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                69  34  73  39 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             70  37  69  33 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   69  35  72  33 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    77  27  75  25 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               70  37  68  33 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  67  39  70  37 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   73  37  76  38 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  70  34  77  38 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           72  38  78  41 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               72  44  69  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...39-Aronson