Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 101733
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1133 AM MDT Sat Jun 10 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 229 AM MDT Sat Jun 10 2023
Dry west to southwest flow aloft will continue, meaning little
chance of rain and a gradual warm up to the warmest temperatures
of the year. Sunday and Monday will see gusty afternoon winds with
elevated fire conditions. By Wednesday and especially Thursday and
Friday, we will likely see our first triple digit readings of the
year across the lowlands.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 AM MDT Sat Jun 10 2023
In the short term, WV imagery shows upper trough with weak
circulation now just east of the CWA. Attendant surface trough
moved through the El Paso metro area around midnight with wind
shift but not much gusts. Otherwise today, much like the rest of
the forecast period looks to remain dry. Some breezes this
afternoon, but then winds increase Sunday and Monday. Should
remain sub-advisory but fire conditions will become elevated all
areas and possibly critical over portions/all of southern New
Mexico. Strongest winds Sunday will be from about Deming west. A
Fire Watch is in effect for the NM Bootheel but the Gila/Black
Range may need a watch too (will recommend to the next shift).
Monday the winds become gusty again over a broader area of the
CWA, but still a bit lighter over west Texas. Will suggest to next
shift that Monday will need another Fire Watch for most/all of
southern NM.
Otherwise continued dry through Friday with a warm up. High
temperatures could reach triple digits for a few lowland sites
Wednesday, with better chances Thursday/Friday. Models differ
noticeably Thursday and Friday; GFS shows a small upper low
rapidly tracking across southern NM, while ECMWF shows none of
that. GFS solution would indicate another gusty day Thursday and
perhaps some clouds and virga/light showers Friday. For now will
side with the ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1132 AM MDT Sat Jun 10 2023
VFR conditions expected with FEW-SCT250. Winds will become breezy
this afternoon topping out around 15 knots with gusts to around 20
knots from the southwest to west. Winds will subside some after
dark except at ELP.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 229 AM MDT Sat Jun 10 2023
Dry, with gusty winds developing Sunday/Monday with elevated fire
conditions. Fire Watch remains in effect for zone 111 Sunday (may
need to be expanded to 110). Winds gusty again Monday across all
zones (bit less over west Texas). So critical fire conditions may
occur for all the southern NM zones. Above normal conditions kick
in by Wednesday and especially Thursday into next weekend. Triple
digit readings are likely across the lowlands and 75-90 degrees
over the mountain zones.
Min RHs: Lowlands 6-12% through Thursday. Mountains 10-20% through
Thursday. Vent rates very good-excellent through Thursday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 96 69 98 70 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 90 62 92 63 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 95 63 96 63 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 91 61 93 61 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 68 47 70 46 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 91 60 92 58 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 81 54 83 51 / 0 0 0 0
Deming 93 56 94 55 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 91 57 91 53 / 0 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 93 66 95 67 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 93 60 95 62 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 96 63 98 64 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 86 62 89 63 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 96 65 98 66 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 93 61 95 62 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 92 67 94 66 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 91 60 92 60 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 92 60 93 60 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 93 62 94 60 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 90 60 92 61 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 80 52 83 52 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 78 50 81 51 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 78 50 79 50 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 81 50 81 47 / 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro 88 57 89 54 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 91 57 91 58 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 83 50 84 48 / 0 0 0 0
Hurley 83 52 86 50 / 0 0 0 0
Cliff 89 45 91 45 / 0 0 0 0
Mule Creek 85 41 86 41 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 88 55 88 53 / 0 0 0 0
Animas 91 55 91 53 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 91 57 92 56 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 91 55 91 53 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 85 54 84 53 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
for NMZ111.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...17-Hefner
LONG TERM....17-Hefner
AVIATION...34-Brown