Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 180939
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
339 AM MDT Thu Jul 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Moist unstable air will flow into southern New Mexico and west
Texas through early next week with weak disturbances aloft also
moving into the region. In addition a weak cold front will push
through the area late Sunday and early Monday. As a result the
Borderland will experience isolated to scattered mainly afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms over the next seven days.
Heavy rains and even flash flooding may occur over several
locations through the period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Abundant low level moisture now covers most of the southwestern
United States and northern Mexico with surface dewpoints exceeding
55 F most lowland locations. With a large area of low pressure at
the surface extending across the Rocky Mountains and Great Basin
and with high pressure over eastern and central Texas the
boundary layer wind flow will vary mostly from southwest to
easterly which in any cases will sustain moisture transport.
Precipitable water will consequently remain above normal at
around 1.1 to 1.3 inches most locations. The combination of low
level water vapor plus warm surface temperatures will destabilize
air mass each afternoon with CAPE`s around 500 to 1000 J/kg.

Meanwhile upper ridge axis will remain aligned east to west across
northern or central New Mexico  through early next week. This
will allow weak embedded waves to move into the CWA from the east
although timing and even detecting these features is difficult if
no impossible beyond 24 hours. But overall pattern will be
generally favorable isolated to scattered thunderstorm
development. More specifically storm initiation will be most
prevalent over the mountains in the afternoon due to upslope
enhanced lifting while surface heating supports mainly isolated
afternoon storms lowlands. Subsequently storm coverage may
increase in the late afternoon and evening due to lifting along
outflow boundaries per convection allowing models.

Some further increase in storm intensity and coverage is expected
Sunday afternoon through Monday when a weak cold front moves to
the south southwest into the CWA providing greater low level
upward forcing. The ample moisture plus slow storm movement
indicate primary hazard from storms will be locally heavy rains
and flash flooding. DCAPE values above 1000 also suggest threat of
stronger downbursts possible.

&&

.AVIATION...valid 18/12z-19/12z.
A few areas of MVFR or IFR ceilings and visibility in showers and
thunderstorms mainly from 20z-06z. A few storms may produce wind
gusts to 45 kt. Otherwise VFR conditions expected most locations
with skies SCT-BKN060-100. Surface winds around 5-15KTS outside of
thunderstorm areas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Moist unstable air will flow into southern New Mexico and west
Texas through early next week with weak disturbances aloft also
moving into the region. In addition a weak cold front will push
through the area late Sunday and early Monday. As a result the
Borderland will experience isolated to scattered mainly afternoon
and evening showers and thunderstorms over the next seven days.
Heavy rains and even flash flooding may occur over several
locations through the period. Winds speeds will be mostly from 5
to 15 mph except for gusts possibly to 50 mph near thunderstorms.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 98  75  99  74 /   0  20  10  30
Sierra Blanca           96  68  96  67 /  10  20  10  30
Las Cruces              98  70  97  70 /   0  20  20  30
Alamogordo              99  70  97  70 /  20  20  20  20
Cloudcroft              82  51  78  54 /  50  20  50  20
Truth or Consequences  101  75 100  71 /  20  20  20  20
Silver City             90  66  89  66 /  50  20  50  30
Deming                  98  70  96  69 /  20  20  20  30
Lordsburg               96  68  95  69 /  20  20  20  30
West El Paso Metro      96  75  97  76 /   0  20  10  30
Dell City               99  66 100  72 /  10  20  20  30
Fort Hancock           100  74  99  74 /   0  20  10  30
Loma Linda              93  65  93  72 /  20  20  20  30
Fabens                  97  73  99  75 /   0  20  10  30
Santa Teresa            96  73  97  71 /   0  20  10  30
White Sands HQ          96  72  95  74 /  10  20  20  30
Jornada Range           98  68  98  69 /   0  20  20  30
Hatch                  100  70  99  69 /   0  20  20  30
Columbus                97  71  96  73 /  20  20  10  30
Orogrande               97  70  97  71 /  10  20  20  30
Mayhill                 89  55  87  60 /  50  20  50  20
Mescalero               89  56  86  58 /  50  20  50  20
Timberon                81  51  83  56 /  50  20  50  30
Winston                 94  63  92  59 /  30  20  20  20
Hillsboro               98  70  97  66 /  30  20  40  30
Spaceport               99  67  98  67 /  10  20  20  20
Lake Roberts            92  57  90  56 /  50  20  50  30
Hurley                  93  66  92  64 /  40  20  50  30
Cliff                   97  61  95  58 /  30  20  50  20
Mule Creek              95  67  94  67 /  30  20  30  20
Faywood                 93  68  92  67 /  30  20  40  30
Animas                  99  70  94  67 /  20  30  20  30
Hachita                 96  68  92  66 /  20  20  20  30
Antelope Wells          95  68  92  67 /  30  30  20  40
Cloverdale              89  65  86  66 /  30  40  20  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05 Rogash


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