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195
FXUS64 KEPZ 211136
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
536 AM MDT Wed Apr 21 2021

.UPDATE...FOR THE 12Z TAF CYCLE...
VFR conditions continue through the period. CIGS AOA 250, with
clouds clearing aft 21Z. AM winds Breezy and somewhat gusty E/SE
winds across Far West Texas, Otero Mesa, and southern deserts of
south central and southwest New Mexico due to high pressure
pushing in behind cold frontal passage. Winds from 050 to 100 at
12g22kts in this region...generally light elsewhere across the
area. Today winds shift to SW (220-250) across areas west of Rio
Grande and strengthen after 18Z to 15-20kts g 20-28kts. Patchy
minor blowing dust possible and widespread haze also possible, but
no sig restrictions to VSBY expected. Generally S to SE winds
from the Rio Grande valley and east winds lighter...generally
150-180 at 10-18kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...227 AM MDT Wed Apr 21 2021...

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue to linger across the Borderland today
creating breezy conditions primarily in western locations this
afternoon. Even though the front will move out of the area on
Thursday, gusty winds will stick around through Friday as an upper
level system approaches the area. Temperatures will cool slightly
on Friday behind the system, but will quickly rebound this
weekend as upper level ridging builds in overhead. The next storm
system looks to move in early next week with more windy conditions
and perhaps a chance for mountain rain showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Today and Tonight...
What`s new in the short-term? Nothing. So let`s talks winds again.
It is spring after all. Overnight we are seeing breezy and locally
gusty east/southeast winds across the southern desert portions of
the area. These winds are with the continued push of cooler air into
the region behind last evening`s cold front passage. The front
itself is now west of Deming, and continuing it`s march toward the
AZ state line. Today it will halt and retreat back to the east and
likely be a stationary boundary just east of the Rio Grande valley
this afternoon. Helping to shove the front back east will be the
approach of an upper-level low pressure system dropping over S NV.
In response, surface troughing will develop over western NM and help
to drive a strengthening southwest surface wind across most of our
region, west of the Rio Grande valley. Grant, Luna, western Sierra,
and Grant counties will see breezy to windy afternoon conditions,
the Rio Grande valley will generally see a lighter southerly wind,
and the eastern locations of Hudspeth and Otero will see continued
SE breezes.  The region will remain quite dry, with some passing
morning clouds, and generally sunny afternoon conditions.

Overnight conditions will be benign as cooling helps to decouple
winds for lighter conditions overnight. Continued dry with a few
passing clouds. Temperatures will be very near seasonal normals.

&&

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Wednesday...
To quickly summarize the long term period - expect warm
and mostly dry conditions to persist, with elevated winds forecast
almost every day. The Borderland will see strengthening
southwesterly flow on Thursday. This will finally push the lingering
front out of the area for good. Surface troughing will shift into
southeastern CO/northeastern NM in the afternoon, allowing winds to
increase to 15-25mph. The strongest winds look to occur in the NM
Bootheel where the pressure gradient will be slightly tighter.
Still expect winds to remain below Wind Advisory criteria area
wide, but this will create some critical fire weather conditions.
Winds looks to stay a bit elevated overnight as a weak upper level
trough starts to move into the region.

The trough will be located right overhead by mid-morning on Friday
creating another day of breezy to windy conditions. Both Thursday
and Friday we could see some very patchy areas of blowing dust, more
so on Thursday since the wind direction will be southwesterly as
opposed to northwesterly on Friday. High temperatures on Friday will
cool a few degrees, particularly across western areas, into the low
to mid 70s. This trough will attempt to usher in a very slight
increase in moisture, but it will certainly struggle to do so.
There may be just enough moisture present to create virga or very
light orographic showers over the higher terrain of the Gila and
Sacramento Mountains. The GFS is picking up on some instability
across northern areas Friday afternoon, so I did introduce thunder
to the grids. In terms of precip accumulation, both the GFS and
ECMWF are only spitting out a few hundredths of rain over the Gila
region.

Upper level ridging begins to build into the Borderland on Saturday.
As the ridge is positioned directly over the state, this will
give us our one day of mostly calm winds. There could be a few
very light breezes over Sierra County as a weak surface trough
tries to get organized to our northeast. High temperatures will
warm into the lower 80s across the lowlands Saturday afternoon.
Our flow aloft will become southwesterly on Sunday as the ridge
shifts off to the east. This will advect a fair amount of warmer
air into the Borderland, resulting in highs reaching the upper 80s
to perhaps 90 degrees in El Paso. At least winds will become low-
end breezy again, so there will be some gusts around to provide
slight relief from the heat.

A more active weather pattern looks to move in early next week as a
trough digs down into southern New Mexico. Models disagree on the
exact timing of the system, with the GFS being more progressive and
moving it through Monday night into Tuesday morning and the ECWMF
holding it off until the daytime hours on Tuesday. This means that
they also disagree on the timing of a stronger Pacific cold frontal
passage. Since the GFS pushes the front through the entire CWA by
Monday afternoon, high temperatures cool about 6-8 degrees. What the
models do agree on is that Monday will be a windy day with
westerly 850mb winds already forecast to be 25-35 knots. This
would create blowing dust concerns across most of the area.
Additionally, they both agree that Tuesday will be a much cooler
day, and that precipitation chances will develop over western
lowlands and the higher terrain of the Gila and Sacramento
Mountains whenever the through does move through. Right now, I
sided with the GFS solution and kept PoPs in for Monday into
Tuesday morning. Decided to not include thunder in this forecast
package since instability looks to have decreased. By mid-week,
northwesterly flow will return as upper level ridging builds back
in over the Southwest US and and gradually warms temperatures back
up into the 80s.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fairly typical, and expected, southwestern U.S. weather for the rest
of the week and weekend ahead.  That means generally dry, warming
temperatures, and more breezy to windy days than light wind days
ahead. A backdoor front pushed west across the area overnight with
east winds across most of the area early today. Very slight cooling
expected today with the new airmass. This new air is continental in
nature, and contains no gulf moisture, so no dryline, no storms,
very few clouds with it. Today the front will shift back east, from
the Continental Divide back to central NM. This will be due to the
development of increased southwesterly winds over areas west of the
Rio, in response to yet another upper-level low pressure system
approaching. The air is dry with min RH dropping to the high single-
digits and low teens today and Thursday. Winds later in the
afternoon should meet marginal Red Flag warning criteria for areas
west of the Rio Grande. For Thursday the front exit the region as it
continues an eastward retreat, and the stronger southwest winds
expand to eastern areas. This gives more of the area another shot at
relatively low-end Red Flag conditions.

Friday the system swings across the area. Mountains will see
marginal moisture gains, and slight chances for brief and light
showers. The lowlands will continue with low RH and may see one more
day of Red Flag conditions as the system passes and a Pacific front
pushes through with slight cooling. The weekend looks a lot less
windy, warmer, and continued dry as high pressure builds over the
region. But Monday brings stronger winds yet again as another storm
system approaches from the west.

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 79  52  81  55 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           71  43  78  48 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              79  50  80  49 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              74  48  77  46 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              52  36  54  34 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   76  48  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             71  45  67  42 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  79  45  78  42 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               80  44  77  42 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      79  54  79  54 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               68  37  79  45 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            81  44  82  49 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              70  45  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  80  49  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            77  48  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          76  52  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           75  48  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   78  47  78  46 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                80  49  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               73  46  78  48 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 62  37  65  39 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               63  40  64  37 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                58  33  62  35 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 71  35  68  32 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               75  45  72  42 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               75  45  76  43 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            71  38  67  34 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  73  40  71  37 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   81  37  75  34 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              74  42  69  39 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 73  45  71  42 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  81  45  77  41 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 80  45  76  42 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          80  47  76  43 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              76  46  71  41 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for NMZ110>113.

     Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     NMZ110-111.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for TXZ055.

&&

$$

14-Bird/32/14



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