Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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356 FXUS64 KEPZ 141709 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1009 AM MST Thu Nov 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 155 AM MST Thu Nov 14 2024 Quiet weather conditions will persist for one more day before conditions gradually become active. The winds will become breezy to windy Friday through Saturday ahead of an incoming storm system. This storm system will eventually move across our area bringing a mix of a rain and snow to the mountains and rain to the lowlands Saturday night through early Monday morning. A strong cold front will accompany this system, which will bring cooler temperatures to our area for much of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 155 AM MST Thu Nov 14 2024 Currently, conditions are quiet with light winds, clear skies and the temperatures on the cool side. For today, expect conditions to be similar to that of yesterday as a ridge of high pressure dominates our weather. The winds will generally be light and variable and the skies sunny. With this ridge in place, the high temperatures in the afternoon will be 5 to 10 degrees above the normal for most of the area. For the rest of the week, conditions will be mostly quiet with some breezy winds across the mountains and Bootheel area. The high temperatures on Friday will be the hottest of the week due to a strong southwesterly flow near the surface. By Saturday, the winds will begin to pick up areawide as a trough of low pressure digs across the Pacific Southwest. An upper level jet will move over the Borderland on Saturday, and as it does with some mixing down to the surface, the winds will become breezy to windy especially during the afternoon hours. The strongest winds will be in the Sacramento mountains. As of now, the winds across the eastern slopes of the Sacramento Mountains appear to reach near the criteria for an advisory. Should the winds continue to be strong across the aforementioned area, an advisory maybe be needed for Saturday. Overnight Saturday into Sunday morning, the southern return branch of the trough will close off into a low while sagging south across the Far Southwest. This will allow for increasing moisture with a chance for rain and snow showers in the mountains and snow showers in the lowlands beginning as early as Saturday night. Rain and snow will continue throughout the day on Sunday. This low will gradually move across southern New Mexico and west Texas Sunday night through Monday morning bringing additional rain and snow to the mountains and rain showers to the the lowlands. The snow level will start off above 7000ft along the Continental Divide and above 9000ft east of the Divide. However, the snow levels will lower to 6000ft along and slightly east of the Divide and around 7000ft for the rest of the area very early Monday morning. The upper level low will eventually eject into the Southern Plains by midday, which will allow for drier air to move in behind it. The winds on Monday do appear to be breezy to windy with a boundary moving in. Cooler temperatures will be in place for the rest of the forecast period with troughing across the area. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1002 AM MST Thu Nov 14 2024 VFR conditions prevail through the forecast period. Light and variable winds continue under mainly SKC. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 155 AM MST Thu Nov 14 2024 For today, quiet weather conditions will be present. The 20ft winds will be light and temperatures above the normal. Tonight recover will be mainly fair. For Friday, somewhat similar conditions to today are expected except for an increase in the winds across the mountains and Bootheel area. For the rest of the period, conditions will become active with strong winds on Saturday to rain and snow in the mountains and rain in the lowlands overnight Saturday through Monday morning. A cold front will accompany a storm system early next week that will bring cooler temperatures to our area. With that said, fire weather conditions will be elevated to near critical on Friday for most of the zones. The min RHs today and on Friday will be below 18%. The min RHs on Friday will be mostly in the single digits west of the Rio Grande. The ventilation rates will poor to good today then poor to excellent on Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 74 47 79 50 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 71 44 77 45 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 70 39 76 43 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 69 41 74 46 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 55 37 55 37 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 68 38 74 41 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 67 42 68 37 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 72 35 77 38 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 71 37 75 35 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 72 48 77 51 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 72 39 78 41 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 78 44 84 44 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 69 47 71 47 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 76 43 80 44 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 70 40 75 44 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 69 47 75 49 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 69 37 74 42 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 72 35 77 42 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 69 38 77 41 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 69 41 73 44 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 70 39 69 43 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 64 38 65 41 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 62 36 64 37 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 64 31 67 32 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 69 37 74 39 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 69 34 73 39 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 70 37 69 33 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 69 35 72 33 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 77 27 75 25 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 70 37 68 33 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 67 39 70 37 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 73 37 76 38 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 70 34 77 38 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 72 38 78 41 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 72 44 69 40 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...39-Aronson