Area Forecast Discussion
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646
FXUS64 KEPZ 151219
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
619 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 235 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Warm and dry conditions will prevail over the Borderland through
the weekend and into mid week as deep and dry westerly flow
remains over the region. Mid week and beyond we will begin to see
some moisture move in from the east, which will allow for more
clouds, and daily afternoon shower and storm chances. This will
mean a drop in temperatures, with daily highs still in the 90s,
but likely falling short of the triple-digits to end the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Based on the models, it appears we can cut the forecast into two
halves. The first half continues with the hot and dry conditions,
and the second half introduces some moisture and storms back into
the region, with an associated drop in temperatures.

For the front-half of the forecast cycle we will be under a deep
and dry westerly flow pattern with high pressure aloft nudging in
from the west. This will keep our skies generally clear, our
temperatures well above normal, our airmass dry, with
exceptionally low RH, and our winds in the fairly light range,
with just marginal and occasional afternoon gusts. Lowlands will
stay in the triple-digits, and we continue Heat Advisories for the
Rio Grande Valley lowlands from Southern Dona Ana, through our TX
zones. This period will be free of any precipitation.

Wednesday begins our back-half of the forecast cycle as we see a
broad Western U.S. trough develop and park to our west. Over the
Northern Rockies a sharper trough will eject east into the
Northern Plains, and allow for a surface push south and into our
region from the NE. This will reintroduce Gulf moisture over our
eastern zones first, with subsequent east pushes spreading the
moisture westward to our central and western zones later in the
week. With lower heights, and more moisture, we will see drops in
daily max temperatures to below the century mark. The added
moisture will allow for more clouds, and chances for afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms across the region. Those start
as early as Wednesday for eastern zones, and Thursday/Friday for
western zones.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 516 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR conditions at all terminals through the period. Clear skies.
No VSBY restrictions. Winds AOB 15kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 235 AM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024

We continue the hot and dry weather pattern today, and through at
least Tuesday. Much of the moisture that we saw with yesterday`s
passing trough will exit the region today as the trough moves
east. That will mean fewer clouds, little to no precipitation/
storm chances, and very low surface RH this afternoon through
Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures will remain well above normal, but
will trim back a few degrees. This still means 100+ for highs
across the lowlands. RH in the single-digits will be common. Winds
won`t be strong, just some occasional afternoon gusts, with
sustained winds less than breezy most of the time.

Once we get to Wednesday, we see a bit of a pattern change, with
a broad upper trough parked to our west. An ejecting trough over
the Northern Rockies will help to push a surface boundary south
and west into our SACs/GUADs, and introduce Gulf moisture back to
the area. First the eastern areas will see more clouds, higher RH,
and storm chances. But subsequent westward pushes each night
Wednesday through Friday, will spread that moisture west into the
Gila/Bootheel regions of SW NM. Thus by THU/FRI, we should see
improvements in RH values, more clouds, somewhat cooler
temperatures, and daily rounds of afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 105  75 106  76 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            99  67 100  68 /   0   0   0  10
Las Cruces              102  69 104  69 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               98  67 103  67 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               77  54  79  55 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    98  70 102  69 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              93  64  93  61 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  101  64 103  64 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                99  64 100  64 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      101  72 103  74 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               103  65 105  66 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            105  67 107  68 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               95  67  97  68 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  104  69 106  70 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            100  66 102  69 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          100  77 103  75 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            99  66 103  64 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   101  66 104  64 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                101  70 103  71 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                99  68 102  68 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  89  59  91  59 /  10   0  10   0
Mescalero                87  58  90  57 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 86  56  89  56 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  91  59  94  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                96  67  99  64 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                97  63 101  61 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             94  59  93  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   96  62  97  59 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   102  59 102  58 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               95  64  95  62 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  95  65  96  62 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  100  64 101  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  99  64 101  64 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           99  64 100  65 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               93  64  95  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT early this morning for TXZ420>422.

     Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Monday for TXZ418-419-423-424.

NM...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT early this morning for NMZ401-
     403>410-414-416-417-425-427>429.

     Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Monday for NMZ411.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...14-Bird