Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42

FXUS63 KIWX 210550

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
150 AM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Issued at 146 AM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Snow will continue through mid morning today for areas mainly south
of US 24 in east-central Indiana and western Ohio. Snow
accumulations are expected in these areas. Cool and dry northerly
flow is expected otherwise. Lows early this morning will be in the
20s. Highs this afternoon will be in the upper 30s and low 40s.
Similar conditions are expected into Thursday and Friday before the
next system brings chances for rain and snow later Friday night into


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Trailing jet/shortwave energy into circulation near Cincinnati will
allow a rather healthy deformation band to develop wnw across
portions of east-central IN and western OH late this evening through
mid morning Wednesday. Light to moderate snow will result from this
forcing (on nw side of 850-700 mb circulation) as snow band slowly
backs wnw from a Portland IN-Lima OH line this evening to along/east
of I-69 in Indiana and along/south of US 24 in northwest OH after
midnight. This activity then dissipates and shifts back sse of the
area by mid morning Wednesday as system transfers to off the Mid
Atlantic Coast. Only minor adjustments needed to snow totals and
timing, with 3-5" of wet snow in our far se (Portland IN to Lima
OH), with lesser amounts farther northwest. Could see roads become
snow covered/slick in spots as bulk of snow occurs at night with
temps near freezing. Hoisted a Winter Weather Advisory in the far
southeast as a result, with expansion wnw by a row or two of
counties possibly needed at some point depending on how far west
more intense snow reaches. Brisk/cold north-northeast low level feed
between OH Valley/mid Atlantic low pressure and a 1028 mb high
centered over northeast Ontario will keep pcpn mainly snow (may
mix in to start this evening), with our nw IN and srn MI counties
remaining dry tonight-Wednesday.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

The second half of the work week will feature cool/dry west-
northwest flow in between a Northeast US upper trough and building
heights over the Central US. A mid level disturbance will undercut
this ridge through the Mid MS/OH Valleys later Friday night through
Saturday evening. This feature will have good low level moisture
return into a tightening baroclinic zone, though lingering
confluence to likely weaken/shear wave with eastward progression
into the OH Valley. Will continue to cover with mainly mid chance
PoPs, highest southwest of US 30 in Indiana. Ptype also remains
highly uncertain at this fcst range (rain or snow) where any banding
sets up on nrn fringe of precip shield given marginal thermal
profiles. This will need to monitored around Saturday as system does
have the potential to produce a narrow band of accumulating wet


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 146 AM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

VFR conditions expected at KSBN through the period, with mainly
gusty northeast winds becoming north-northwest and diminishing in
intensity by Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise, a tricky forecast at
KFWA with the surface low and associated deformation zone to our
southeast. KFWA is right on the far western edge of where we expect
the moderate snow to be tonight into tomorrow morning. Some of the
models bring the more moderate intensity bands just east of KFWA,
while others bring it right over the terminal. Looking at upstream
obs, the bands expected to potentially reach the terminal are
leading to low-end MVFR conditions. Just east of there in the better
forcing, we have IFR and even some LIFR conditions (as close as
AOH/Lima, OH). For now, went on the conservative side and kept the
TAF low-end MVFR at BKN025 and 3SM visibility. Given lower
confidence, I put this in a tempo group. I expect the VLIFR
conditions to stay southeast of the terminal, but will monitor
observational trends closely and adjust the forecast to bring more
pessimistic conditions further northwest if needed. Winds at the
terminal will continue gusting into the mid 20 knot range, but
will gradually die down as the pressure gradient slackens
Wednesday afternoon.


IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for INZ034.

OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ025.

LM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ043-046.



SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel

Visit us at

Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at: is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.