363
FXUS63 KLBF 121129
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
629 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are again
  likely for much of central and western Nebraska on Tuesday
  with a Red Flag Warning in place for Fire Weather Zone 209.

- Fire weather concerns are expected to persist at least
  Wednesday and Thursday for portions of the area, with gusty
  winds and low humidity expected both days.

- Temperatures remain well above average into the weekend, with
  highs in the 80s each day, and potential to see lower 90s.

- Chances of showers and thunderstorms increase this weekend as
  a system tracks across the northern Plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Early this morning, mid-level clouds continued to stream west to
east across the area. At the surface, a Pacific frontal boundary was
bisecting the area from the north. This was denoted by a flip to
northerly winds with slight upticks in speed. Outside of this, no
significant airmass change is expected. This will help limit
humidity recovery as persistent low-level winds will promote mixing.
Maximum humidity levels will likely only reach the 40-60% range and
with the abrupt wind shift with the front, fire weather concerns
will continue through the overnight hours.

Tuesday/Tuesday Night...a Red Flag Warning is in place for portions
of central Nebraska. Details pertaining to this can be found below
in the fire weather discussion below. Surface frontal boundary
should clear the area to the south by late morning. Persistent
northerly winds will dominate the daytime hours as surface high
pressure noses in from the northwest. Temperatures at h85 will fall
to the 14-18C range, down from the middle 20s on Monday. This will
result in more seasonable temperatures locally with highs in
the middle 70s to lower 80s north to south. With stronger winds
off the surface and pressure rises through the day, northerly
winds will remain strong. Gusts around 25 to 35 mph are
possible. The stronger 35 mph gusts will likely be sporadic and
favor north central Nebraska where stronger h7 flow resides.
Though this belt of stronger winds will reside above the mixed
boundary layer, a few of these stronger gusts should still
manage to reach the surface. As central high pressure settles
into eastern Nebraska in the evening, a reasonable radiational
cooling setup will materialize. Given ample dry air in place,
fog potential appears to be low, and low temperatures will only
fall into the lower 40s.

Wednesday/Wednesday Night...high pressure should exit the area by
late morning with return southerly flow becoming reestablished over
western Nebraska. This will draw richer low-level moisture north,
initially along the Front Range but eventually extending east into
the Nebraska Panhandle and Sandhills. This southerly flow will also
lead to warm air advection and a return to above normal
temperatures. Highs should reach the upper 70s to upper 80s, warmest
in the west. Gusty south winds with the increasingly warm
temperatures will again promote some fire weather concerns, with
details below in the fire weather discussion. In the evening, as
moisture continues to increase across the high terrain, scattered
showers with a few thunderstorms should develop near the I-25
corridor as a weak disturbance rounds the top of shortwave ridging.
Instability will largely be confined to areas west of Highway 385
and so activity is likely to remain west of the local area. This is
supported by NBM90 QPF which maintains dry conditions for our
western zones with similar suggestion from deterministic solutions
as well as SREF probabilities. Strengthening LLJ will promote breezy
overnight winds. This will keep lows on the mild side with many
locations holding in the lower 50s but more wind prone areas,
particularly higher elevation areas such as the Pine Ridge, may
manage to hold in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

As southerly flow continues Thursday morning, expecting to see
rising dewpoints across portions of the forecast region, as has been
suggested by guidance for the last several days. Agreement continues
to build into model solutions, indicating higher dewpoints into the
50s across eastern portions of the forecast area, with lower
dewpoints in the 30s across western Nebraska. This will help form a
dry line across western Nebraska, generally somewhere between
Highways 61 and 83. To the east of the dry line, expecting that
humidity values remain above fire weather thresholds, so expect a
lesser threat Thursday afternoon. West of the dry line, though, warm
and dry downslope flow is expected, with potential for gusty
westerly winds across the Panhandle and western Sandhills. With the
lack of moisture extending into far western Nebraska, expecting very
low humidity values as the dry line tracks east, with afternoon
humidity in the 10 to 15 percent range. On top of that, will
continue to see well above average temperatures across the forecast
region, with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Given this set up,
at least elevated to near critical fire weather conditions look
possible across western Nebraska Thursday afternoon, but will
continue to monitor in the next few forecast cycles to determine
confidence in hitting critical thresholds.

As for precipitation along the dry line, while moisture certainly
appears available, there is some question on whether the cap will
break along the dry line. Forecast soundings indicate strong capping
across the region, which may inhibit convection. However, there may
be a few hours with a weaker cap, allowing a few cells to form.
Given the low confidence, will keep PoPs at a slight chance for now.
For what its worth, any expected precipitation Thursday evening into
the night appear quite light, generally a few hundredths at best. As
the Gulf moisture is pushed out of the region along the dry line,
high pressure builds in Thursday night into Friday morning. Will
again see above average temperatures Friday, with highs generally in
the mid 80s to lower 90s. Again, relative humidity is expected to
remain quite low, generally around 10 to 20 percent across the
region. However, with the high pressure building across the region,
winds look to be lighter on Friday, which may limit fire weather
concerns on Friday.

Saturday, an upper level trough tracks across Montana, bringing a
surface low across the Dakotas. As this system tracks across the
northern Plains, it brings a cold front across the region Saturday
evening. Ahead of this front, temperatures again climb well above
seasonal, with highs staying in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Again,
expect low humidity across the region, with potential for gusty
winds. However, given the timing of the front remains somewhat less
certain, not highly confident in how much overlap there will be of
gusty winds and low humidity. As the low approaches, though, expect
to see increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms to develop
across portions of the region. For Sunday, the trough is expected to
deepen, keeping continued chances of showers and thunderstorms
across the region. Ensemble guidance continues to suggest this as
our best chances for precipitation in the near term, outside of a
few weakly forced showers.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 628 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north
central Nebraska today and tonight. Gusty northerly winds have
already started across the region, with gusty winds lasting
throughout the day and into the evening. By the evening, as a low
level inversion develops, winds begin to decrease to mostly light
and variable. A few mid level clouds are expected this morning
across northern Nebraska, with mostly clear skies throughout the day
and tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Tuesday...near-critical to critical fire weather conditions are
again likely for much of western and central Nebraska. A Red Flag
Warning is in effect for Fire Weather Zone 209, with lower
confidence in seeing critical conditions elsewhere precluding more
widespread headlines. Frontal boundary settling south through
western Nebraska early Tuesday morning should clear the area by late
morning. Winds will remain strong through the day with gusts in the
25 to 35 mph range, strongest across north central Nebraska where
NBM highlights 80%+ probabilities for exceeding 22 knot (25 mph)
gusts. Limiting overall concern today will be afternoon humidity
minimums. Surface high pressure will approach the area by late
afternoon. Median values from NBM guidance suggest widespread 20-25%
humidity values with more aggressive outputs struggling to pain much
coverage of 20% or less. Similarly, HREF only shows around a 50/50
signal for seeing 20% or less humidity, mainly over southern Zone
206 and Zone 219. This falls short of the criteria (15%) for these
zones but far southern Zone 209, with the higher criteria (20%),
will likely reach this threshold thus the headline limited to this
one zone. A hindcast look shows the Sunday afternoon RAP run handled
Monday`s humidity forecast fairly well. A look at Monday afternoon`s
RAP run for Tuesday shows only southern Zone 209 hitting criteria
with all other locations remaining above. Because of this and little
to no signal in HREF joint RH/wind probabilities, no expansion of
headlines is expected locally. Even while falling short of true RFW
criteria for Zones 206, 208, and 219, the expected gusty winds and
humidity in the 15-20% range will lead to near-critical conditions.
Weaker winds further west in Zones 204 and 210 should keep things
closer to elevated. Winds will gradually subside by late
afternoon/early evening with modest humidity recovery around 65-75%.

Wednesday...behind departing high pressure, southerly flow will
become established across western Nebraska. This will support
warming temperatures as thermal ridging settles over the Front
Range. Afternoon highs will climb to the upper 70s east to upper 80s
west, or about 10-20F above normal for mid-May. Gusty south winds
will develop over our western zones and combined with the warmer
temperatures should allow humidity to drop into the 15-25% range.
Winds will be strongest west of Highway 83, with a fairly sharp west
to east gradient in expected gusts. NBM shows this well with 70-90%
probabilities of seeing 34 knot (~39 mph) or greater gusts with a
quick decrease to less than 50% for most locations to the east.
Southerly winds will also promote some modest moisture advection,
which should offset diurnal mixing and keep humidity from reaching
critical levels. At this time, will continue to highlight near-
critical conditions largely due to the expected wind gusts. Should
forecast humidity levels fall at all, do believe headlines may need
consideration with later forecasts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
NEZ209.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Richie
FIRE WEATHER...NMJ