856
FXUS63 KLBF 260523
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1223 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions in the west on
  Wednesday and elevated Thursday. Near critical fire weather
  conditions Friday.

- Well above normal temperatures Wednesday through Friday with a cooldown
  to below normal temperatures Saturday through Tuesday.

- Rain showers likely Friday night through Saturday. A chance
  for rain and snow showers Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 327 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

The cold front will become stationary over northeast Colorado
tonight, then lift northeast as a warm front on Wednesday. This will
bring a return of southerly winds gusting to 25 mph and a warmup
into the low to mid 70s. Afternoon humidity will fall to near 20
percent in the eastern panhandle to the mid 20s to near 30 percent
to the east. This will bring elevated to near critical fire
conditions during the afternoon in the west.

Wednesday night, the warm front will become stationary across
central into eastern Nebraska. This will be a weak focus for rain
showers to develop east of Highway 183. Most of the CAMs are dry,
except for recent runs of the GFS. Lows overnight not as cold from
40 to 45.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 327 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025

On Thursday, the upper ridge will flatten out across the region.
Deep surface low pressure develops along the Front Range of Wyoming
and Colorado with a warm front across southeast Nebraska and
northern Missouri. Will see as strong warmup with highs from 75 in
the northeast to 85 in the far southwest. The latest EC EFI and SOT is
indicating a fairly significant event with respect to high
temperatures across the forecast area Thursday and Friday. This is
supported by the latest ECX guidance which has highs of 85 degrees
for KLBF Thursday and 86 on Friday. This would be a near record high
for North Platte on Thursday and tie the record high on Friday. The
The NBM median ensemble high of of 87 Thursday and 89 on Friday
would support record highs each of those days, so slightly warmer
highs are possible. With respect to fire weather concerns Thursday,
in light of near critical minimum RH values near 15 percent across
far western zones, winds are expected to be southwest 10 to 15 mph,
with elevated fire conditions.

On Friday, an upper trough will move into the western CONUS, with
southwest flow aloft. Across western Nebraska, a prefrontal surface
trough will move slowly east, with a wind shift to the west and
northwest west of Highway 83. Gusty southerly winds will develop
south of the pre frontal trough, pushing low level moisture into
south central and eastern Nebraska. With highs in the upper 70s
north to the mid 80s south, Afternoon humidity will approach 15
percent across the southwest into the central Sandhills. With winds
gusts to 25 mph possible, near critical fire conditions are
possible.

As the front stalls south and east of the area Friday night, a
disturbance will cross the area Friday night into Saturday with
showers likely. A few thunderstorms are also possible Friday night
east of a North Platte through Bassett line. The main upper trough
will move through Saturday night into Sunday. Less model agreement
on the amplitude of this trough. The 12Z GFS is deeper and develops
a closed low across Kansas, while the ECMWF and GEM do not, and show
zonal flow with embedded disturbances. This bring a low confidence in
the track of precipitation. Regardless, cold air will be drawn
southward with soundings supportive of rain or snow showers Saturday
night into Sunday. The latest NBM has probabilities of 1 inch or
greater from 40 to 45 percent west of a Valentine through
Thedford and Ogallala line, and only 25 to 35 percent to the
east. Highs Saturday much cooler from the upper 40s to upper
50s, and the upper 30s to upper 40s Sunday. So while this does
not appear to become an organized system at this time, will need
to monitored closely in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Wed Mar 26 2025

Other than some high clouds today, expect mainly clear skies
with a few to scattered high clouds around 25000 FT AGL. Some
mid level clouds may impact the KVTN terminal this morning with
scattered to broken ceilings ranging from 8000 to 13000 FT AGL.
Winds will generally be from the south or south southwest today
ranging from 10 to 15 KTS. Some gusts may reach around 20 to 25
KTS this afternoon.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Buttler