Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI

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FXUS63 KMKX 011403
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
903 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020

.UPDATE...

There are some showers out to the west in IA that is being caused
by some mid level warm air advection. As high pressure builds in
the warm air advection begins to weaken this should keep the
showers out of southern Wisconsin this morning. Dry weather and
light winds expected for the rest of the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...

Light winds and small waves continue through the morning hours and
into the afternoon as high pressure builds into the area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 624 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020)

UPDATE...

Watching an area of rain over the Iowa/Minnesota border. This is
expected to remain just south and west of the forecast area, but
Iowa, Lafayette, and Green counties may get clipped late this
morning.

AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...

IFR and MVFR ceilings are expanding westward this morning. Do
expect MVFR ceilings to reach the MSN area around 13Z. MVFR/IFR
ceilings are not expected to expand west of MSN. Ceilings will
gradually lift to VFR this afternoon with light east to northeast
winds shifting to the southeast this evening and through the
overnight.

PREV DISCUSSION... (Issued 400 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2020)

SHORT TERM...
Today through Thursday...Forecast Confidence is High.

Despite the lingering clouds, it should be a nice few days with
temperatures warming into the 40s and 50s today and 40s to low 60s
Thursday. Expect the coolest temperatures along the lake thanks
to easterly winds. There will be a couple chances to see some sun,
but the best chance looks to be before sunset today. These quiet
conditions are due to the upper level ridge that is moving in
today, causing high pressure to set up over the region.

LONG TERM...
Thursday Night through Wednesday...Forecast confidence is Medium.

Warming trend is in store for southern Wisconsin for most of this
forecast period. Forecast area is pinched between two mid
latitude troughs Thursday night with western US trough slowly
making its way into the upper Midwest on Friday. Warm air ahead of
this trough and associated surface front will result in mid to
upper 50s on Friday with a few lower 60s possible. Cloud cover
should be tricky on Friday, but increasing moisture and clouds a
good bet by Friday evening. As a result precipitation chances
increase Friday evening and overnight just ahead and along the
aforementioned front. Friday night will be mild all locations.

The front should be through most of the forecast area by Saturday
morning with breezy conditions. Best opportunity for measurable
rain should be late Friday night through Saturday morning before
drier air moves into the region. Models in agreement with this
dry air pushing west to east starting Saturday afternoon. After a
few lingering showers near Lake Michigan, all of southern
Wisconsin will clear out by Saturday evening...possibly holding
off until sunset. Then expect Saturday night to be mostly clear
and cool.

Surface high sits over the region on Sunday, keeping things dry.
Southwest flow aloft then increases Sunday night through Monday.
Mid and upper level moisture will once again increase Monday
through Tuesday. This is a warm and progressive pattern for
southern Wisconsin with a few showers possible each day.

AVIATION(09Z TAFS)...
MVFR ceilings will continue to spread into the eastern half of
the state. Some areas towards east central Wisconsin may drop to
IFR at times this morning. MVFR ceilings may remain just east of
MSN. Expect ceilings to gradually increase during the afternoon
and evening. Winds will remain light and mainly from the east to
southeast inland and from the northeast to east along the lake.

MARINE...
Expect light northerly winds to continue before shifting to the
east/southeast Thursday. High pressure is expected to remain over
the Great Lakes Region until a weak low pressure system drags a
front through the region Friday night. High pressure then moves in
for the weekend.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

Update...Patterson
Today/Tonight and Aviation/Marine...KPL
Thursday THROUGH Tuesday...RAH


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