872
FXUS65 KMSO 131812
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
1212 PM MDT Mon May 13 2024

.DISCUSSION...A few light showers or sprinkles have fallen already
mainly in northwest MT in response to a weak wave dropping out of
British Columbia, CA. Chances for showers or an isolated
thunderstorm will continue today, especially in northwest MT. A
separate weak wave is visible on satellite currently over Lemhi
County, ID. This wave does not have a lot of moisture to work
with but mid-level instability will allow for isolated
thunderstorms. These storms combining with a very dry surface
layer will be capable of outflow gusts up to 45 mph in portions
of southwest MT.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue on Tuesday,
mainly north of I-90 and along the Continental Divide.

Although isolated showers are possible both Wednesday and
Thursday, an expanding high pressure ridge over the north Pacific
will suppress most activity.

Thursday afternoon, the aforementioned high pressure will be
squashed by a deepening trough. Jet energy over central British
Columbia will be pushed south into northwest Montana. Expect
gusty winds during the afternoon, creating choppy conditions on
area lakes.

Friday, breezy conditions continue and showers develop in
northwest Montana. Our current forecast is not overly excited
about available moisture for this weekend system. That said, 70%
of the models do point to a more organized, cooler, and wetter
trough. In this scenario, available moisture is increased and snow
levels lower sufficiently for mountain snow. Keep appraised of
future forecasts as there has been moderate volatility in the
models run to run.


&&

.AVIATION...Gusts around 25-30kts will be possible through
14/0200Z this evening. Scattered rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms are expected in and around KGPI and all along the
Continental Divide in western Montana during this time as well.
Although confidence is low, mid-level instability and a dry
surface layer may produce strong outflow winds from virga or an
isolated shower in the vicinity of KBTM after 13/20z.




&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$