Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
593 FXUS65 KMSO 090728 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT Issued by National Weather Service Spokane WA 128 AM MDT Tue Jun 9 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Cool, breezy and wet conditions today through Wednesday - Another frost possible Thursday morning, especially along and south of the Interstate 90 corridor Today through Wednesday: Showers will increase from the southwest this morning, with scattered thunderstorms developing primarily south of the I-90 corridor from late morning through this afternoon. High-resolution guidance highlights the highest thunderstorm probabilities (3040%) extending from Lemhi County into southwest Montana. General wind gusts of 2030 mph will be common across the region today; however, localized gusts up to 45 mph may accompany heavier showers and thunderstorms. Expect a notably cooler day, with daytime highs dropping 1015 degrees compared to yesterday. Those with outdoor plans should remain weather-aware, and boaters should monitor area lakes for choppy conditions. Periodic showers will continue tonight through Wednesday. Snow levels are forecast to drop to 5,0006,000 feet by Wednesday morning, potentially bringing 1 to 2 inches of wet snow to the higher terrain. Persistent breezy winds combined with cool, showery weather will yield raw conditions for backcountry recreation. As skies gradually clear Thursday morning, localized valley frost is possible. The extent of the frost will largely depend on the timing of clearing skies; currently, the highest frost probabilities are concentrated south of I-90. Current frost probabilities are 25-50% for the Bitterroot Valley and Salmon, with higher probabilities for valleys along the Divide. Thursday through Sunday:Looking ahead to Friday and the upcoming weekend, an unsettled weather pattern will linger across the Northern Rockies. While model guidance remains uncertain regarding the exact timing and intensity of individual shortwaves, a weak cold front dropping from the north is expected to maintain near- seasonal temperatures. Periodic shower chances will persist, primarily focused across western Montana, while relatively drier conditions take hold over north-central Idaho. && .AVIATION...Showers will increase from the southwest this morning with scattered thunderstorms, mainly from I-90 southward this afternoon. High resolution guidance shows the highest thunderstorm probabilities, at 3040%, extending from Lemhi County into southwest Montana including KSMN and KBTM. Wind gusts of 20-30 kts will be common today with gusts up to 40 kts accompanying heavier showers and thunderstorms. VFR conditions will dominate today but expect brief periods of MVFR and IFR during brief precipitation episodes along with mountain obscurations. Periodic showers will continue tonight into Wednesday. Winds will diminish in valleys after sunset but remain gusty on ridgetops, then mix back down into valleys on Wednesday late morning/afternoon. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$