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000
FXUS65 KMSO 151925
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
125 PM MDT Sat May 15 2021

.DISCUSSION...Very warm temperatures will remain throughout the
Northern Rockies for the next few days while under high pressure.
Low pressure south of the region will bring just enough moisture
into Lemhi County and southwest Montana for isolated showers and
thunderstorms. Dry surface conditions mean brief gusty winds are
more likely than rain.

Sunday and Monday are on track to be very warm for this time of
the year with high temperatures in the upper 70s and 80s in most
valley locations.

Model guidance have consensus for Tuesday to be mostly dry, but a
cold front will begin to move through the region. Breezy winds
will develop by the evening and high temperatures look to be
around 5-10 degrees cooler than Monday.

The most interesting weather feature this week is the trough and
low pressure system expected to bring rain to north-central Idaho
and western Montana for the second half of the week. Shower
chances increase on Wednesday, but there is still uncertainty on
the coverage.

Spokes of energy associated with the upcoming low are expected to
bring widespread rain showers during Thursday. Cloud cover and
rain will inhibit daytime heating and high temperatures on
Thursday are now forecast to be in the 50s or around 10 degrees
below normal. Multiple rounds of showers and continued cool
temperatures will continue for Friday and Saturday as the broad
low pressure system slowly moves through the region.


&&

.AVIATION...Fair flying conditions are expected at KGPI and KMSO
for the next couple of days. KSMN and KBTM will experience in
increasing winds and clouds during the afternoon and evening. A
nearby storm could produce gusty and erratics winds between
15/21z to 16/01z.



&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$