Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 160201 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1001 PM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front crosses the area overnight, then stalls over the Carolinas on Tuesday. An area of low pressure moves along the front Tuesday night, with high pressure building back in from the north later Wednesday and Wednesday night. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... As of 955 PM EDT Monday... Latest analysis reveals surface high pressure is located well offshore of the Southeast coast this evening, with low pressure over southern QC and a trailing cold front extending south across the coastal northeast into western portions of VA into the western Carolinas. Still very mild ahead of the front this evening with pre-frontal temperatures still well in the 60s to low 70s at 02z. No major change to forecast rationale overnight. Front will drop across the area late, with some scattered showers to drop SE across the MD Ern Shore overnight, reaching SE VA/NE NC toward morning. The best forcing remains N of the area, but there should still be enough low-level convergence and lift for showers to spread across mainly the ern third of the area. Moisture will be limited with QPF less than 0.25". Wind gusts to 20 mph will follow the front overnight...with a few gusts to ~25-30 kt possible with the frontal passage over coastal sections. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 400 PM EDT Monday... The initial shortwave trough is forecast to move offshore early in the morning, with 30-40% PoPs for showers across SE VA/NE NC, and ~20% from central VA to the MD Ern Shore. By aftn, PoPs are forecast to be ~20% for srn VA/NE NC and <15% across the N. Mostly cloudy to overcast across the srn half of the area Tuesday, and generally mostly cloudy N, although partial clearing is possible across the MD Ern Shore. The cold front is expected to move through NE NC by mid-morning, and then stall across NC by aftn. Temperatures area expected to range from the mid 50s N to mid 60s S to begin the day, and then only rise to the upper 50/around 60F N, and remain steady, or even drop a few degrees in the aftn across the S (especially NE NC). Another shortwave trough and area of weak low pressure tracks along the front late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. This will bring additional rain to SE VA/NE NC where PoPs are ~60% and bordered by 30-40% from the SW Piedmont to the VA Ern Shore, and aob 20% farther N. Lows Tuesday night range from the mid 40s NW, to the mid 50s SE. Canadian high pressure to the NW will push the stalled front off the coast by Wednesday afternoon and ending the chance for PoPs across the region. Highs range from the mid 60s N to near 70 S with decreasing clouds. Wednesday night will likely be the coolest night of the season thus far with cool high pressure building over the region and a clear sky. Lows will likely drop into the mid-upper 30s for the Piedmont into portions of the interior coastal plain and lower 40s elsewhere (away from the coast). There is a potential for frost Wednesday night, especially well inland. Sunny and cool Thursday with high pressure over the region. Highs are forecast to be in the upper 50s N to low 60s S, with dewpoints in the 30s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 400 PM Monday... This period starts off with a 1030+ mb high pressure system over the area Friday morning. Combo of clr skies along with nearly calm winds allows for max radiational cooling. MEX numbers suggest widespread mid-upr 30s for lows except in the 40s along the coast. Thus, the confidence for patchy frost across the Piedmont is increasing. The high quickly moves offshore Fri with mid-high level moisture quickly spreading east from the system to the west. Day starts off with sun, then increasing clouds. Dry with highs in the 60s. Leaned toward the slower ECMWF timing of the moisture fields rather than the quicker GFS given the strength of the high moving offshore. The next front progged into the area Fri night then moves south into the Carolinas Sat. Data suggests southern stream energy getting tapped and ejecting ne along the front. Thus, moisture returns with this more of a stratiform rain rather than showers. Will carry chc pops Fri night. Best moisture flux / lift Sat morn then gets pushed se Sat aftrn. High chc to low end likely pops thru 18Z SAt, then start tapering pops off nw after 18Z but keeping likely pops across the se. Lows Fri night 50-55. Highs Sat in the 60s. The front and pcpn push offshore Sat night so will hold onto chc pops Sat evening then end pops with decreasing clouds after 06Z. Lows in the 40s to low-mid 50s along the se coast. Another high pressure system builds into the area early next week. Strong CAA Sun will diminish late. Highs mid 50s nw to mid 60s se. The high builds over the area by 12Z Mon. Clear skies / diminishing winds results in another cold night with widespread lows in the mid- upr 30s except the low-mid 40s along the sern coastal areas. Mstly sunny and cool Mon. Highs 55-60. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 800 PM EDT Monday... VFR conditions across area terminals this evening. Surface cold front currently dropping across the northern Mid-Atlantic will approach from the NW late this evening and overnight. Mainly VFR cigs are expected with the frontal passage along with showers, with the best chc at SBY/ORF/PHF. Cigs potentially drop to MVFR briefly with frontal passage, with a period of MVFR and light rain/drizzle then expected Tuesday morning behind the front, most likely at ORF/ECG. A surge of NNW winds are expected immediately post frontal with gusts to ~20-25kt along the coast. Remaining mostly cloudy to overcast Tuesday as the front stalls over NC and a wave of low pressure approaches from the SW. Low cigs along with more showers will bring the potential for flight restrictions into Tuesday night, mainly across srn/SE VA and NE NC as low pressure tracks along the stalled front. Conditions improve Wednesday through Friday as cool dry high pressure builds into the region. && .MARINE... As of 545 PM EDT Monday... Based on some of the latest high res data, a rather decent CAA surge expected later tonight and Tues morn behind the cold front. Went ahead and added the lower James River to the SCA and beefed up some of the gusts in the CWF for now. PVS DSCN: Yesterday`s high pressure continues eastward into the Atlantic as a surface trough and cold front associated with low pressure across Ontario approaches the area. Southwesterly winds 10-15 with sporadic instances of 15-20 kt across the marine zones this afternoon. Winds will increase into the evening hours as the pressure gradient ahead of the approaching trough/front tightens with winds 15-25 kt developing after 00Z. Winds will veer from southwesterly to northwesterly after frontal passage tonight. With cooler air and warm water temps across the marine zones allowing higher momentum winds aloft to mix down, SCA conditions are expected tonight and into Tuesday. Currently have the SCA expiring at 15Z but some of the northern zones may fall below thresholds a bit earlier. High pressure builds in for a short while on Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday prior to a reinforcing cold frontal passage across the area Wednesday night and early Thursday. Dry and cold continental air behind this front will allow northwesterly winds to reach SCA thresholds and may get close to Gale territory. Will hold off on hoisting any headlines regarding this second front as it is still a few periods away and questions remain regarding timing and magnitude of the winds, but will continue to closely monitor this period in subsequent forecasts. Quiet marine conditions are forecast to return for the second half of Thursday and into Friday as surface high pressure builds into the area. && .HYDROLOGY... As of 1000 PM Monday... Numerous river flood warnings continue on the Nottoway, Meherrin, Appomattox basins, but levels have dropped below flood stage on the James so have cancelled headlines there. Also, have re-issued the areal flood warning for locations along the Mattaponi River where the level is still steady or slowly rising at Beulahville and a new warning for Bryants Corner SE of KEMV. See FLWAKQ/FLSAKQ for site-specific details. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630>632- 634-638-650-652-654-656. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ NEAR TERM...AJZ/MAM SHORT TERM...AJB/AJZ LONG TERM...MPR AVIATION...AJZ/MAM MARINE...MPR/RHR HYDROLOGY... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.