National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 030115
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
915 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move south into the Mid-Atlantic tonight, and
slowly move south towards the North Carolina border early
Sunday. Tropical Storm Colin will track along the Carolina coast
then out to sea. High pressure will build across the region on
Independence Day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
As of 915 PM EDT Saturday...

The severe thunderstorm watch previously in place for Fluvanna
and Louisa counties was canceled at 00z. The severe
thunderstorm watch for Dorchester County in MD was allowed to
expire at 01z.

The flow aloft is zonal across the Mid- Atlantic this evening
around the base of a trough over Eastern Canada. At the
surface, a cold front is pushing through the upper Ohio Valley.
Meanwhile, minimal TS Colin is centered near the coast at the
NC/SC border. Showers/tstms that formed along the Blue Ridge
earlier this afternoon struggled to move E off the higher
terrain and did not make it to the local area.

The cold front will continue to approach from the NW late this
evening. Showers/tstms may develop across the NW Piedmont
counties, and later into the MD Eastern Shore. Showers, and a
few isolated tstms given some instability aloft potentially
linger from the Northern Neck to the MD Eastern Shore overnight
with the cold front in the area. Warm and humid tonight with
lows around 70F/lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Saturday...

The cold front will gradually move south across southern VA
into northern NC Sunday. Mainly showers in the morning in
vicinity of the front, with tstms by afternoon, especially
across southern VA/NE NC. Additionally, PW values are expected
to be ~2.0". Therefore, the main threat is locally heavy rain,
with a minimal threat of damaging wind gusts. PoPs begin the day
at 20-40%, then increase to 40-60% by afternoon for extreme
southern VA into NE NC. Drier air will arrive from the N during
the afternoon from central VA into SE MD. Forecast highs Sunday
are mainly in the mid 80s to near 90F.

The latest trends continue to show the front moving south of
the are Sunday night into Monday, as the tropical system moves
offshore. Conditions are trending pleasant for Independence Day
with dewpoints dropping to the lower 60s, with some upper 50s
possible. Lows Sunday night range from the lower 60s NW to near
70F SE, followed by highs Monday in the mid 80s to near 90F.

Mainly dry Monday night with lows in the mid 60s to near 70F.
Moisture increases Tuesday as high pressure moves offshore.
There is a chc for afternoon showers/tstms as a boundary drops
in from the NW. Highs Tuesday are mainly in the upper 80s to
lower 90s, with lower to mid 80s at the immediate coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Saturday...

An unsettled weather pattern is expected for the middle to end
of next week. A ridge is expected to build over the southern
CONUS from TX to GA as a trough develops over the northeastern
CONUS. Multiple boundaries or cold fronts are expected to push
through the area in NW flow aloft bringing chcs for mainly
afternoon/evening showers/tstms. High temperatures will be
seasonal and mainly be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with low
temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 740 PM EDT Saturday...

A cold front is approaching from the NW as of 00z. Meanwhile,
minimal TS Colin in located near Wilmington, NC. The wind is
generally SW 5-10kt, but a little higher near the coast where
gusts are up to ~25kt. Showers/tstms from earlier this
afternoon avoided the local area, staying confined to the higher
terrain to the W. The cold front is forecast to drop S across
the region late tonight through Sunday morning. The wind is
expected to shift to N or NE behind the front, with the
potential for MVFR cigs developing behind the front (and
possibly IFR at RIC). There is a 30-50% chc of showers morning
through midday at RIC, and then a 30-50% chc of showers/tstms at
ORF/PHF/ECG during the aftn. Any MVFR/IFR cigs should lift
later Sunday morning.

High pressure builds across the region Sunday night into Monday
bringing dry and VFR conditions. A more unsettled pattern
develops Tuesday through Thursday with daily chcs of
aftn/evening showers/tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 PM EDT Saturday...

This afternoon, a cold front is slowly approaching the waters
from the northwest and will slowly cross the waters later
tonight through tomorrow. Meanwhile, (weak) Tropical Storm Colin
is located near the coastal NC/SC border and is expected to
gradually move off to the NE through tomorrow. Breezy S to SW
winds ahead of the front this afternoon, with wind speeds around
10 to 15 knots and gusts to 20 knots. It will remain breezy
into this evening before winds begin to relax later tonight.
Will also have to watch the potential for a few strong to severe
thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening, especially over
the northern waters, which could bring heavy rain, frequent
lightning, and some localized wind gusts in excess of 34 knots.
Seas are running around 2 to 4 feet and waves in the Chesapeake
Bay are around 1 to 2 feet.

The front ever so slowly drops south across the waters tonight
through tomorrow, likely stalling at times, with winds becoming
NNW and then eventually NE in the wake of the front. Wind speeds
will remain below 10 knots tomorrow outside of the far southern
waters where some slightly higher winds (~15 knots) may be felt
due to TS Colin. High pressure builds offshore early next week
which will allow for ESE winds on Monday, gradually becoming SSW
by Tuesday. Seas will generally range from 2 to 3 feet on
Monday, building to 2 to 4 feet later Tuesday into Tuesday
night.

The center of Tropical Storm Colin is still forecast to track
south of the local waters (over Hatteras Island) Sunday
afternoon into Sunday evening, before moving out to sea and
likely dissipating by Sunday night. The latest wind forecast
still has the majority of the tropical storm force winds
confined to the southeastern quadrant of the storm, thus little
to no impacts are anticipated for the local waters. Any build up
of seas should also remain fairly limited due to the forecast
track. As always, continue to follow NHC for the latest
information.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/CP
NEAR TERM...AJZ/AM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/CP
LONG TERM...AJZ/CP
AVIATION...AJZ/AM
MARINE...ALB