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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 132102
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
402 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will lift northeast from the Gulf coast through
tonight, then track northeast along the eastern seaboard on
Saturday. High pressure returns Sunday before the next system
impacts the region Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 345 PM EST Friday...

Latest sfc analysis depicts a coastal trough/stationary front
extending north from FL along the mid-Atlantic coast to Long
Island. Sfc low pressure was developing along the front over NE
FL. The center of sfc high pressure is well off the New England
coast but extends SW down the spine of the Appalachians with an
in- situ wedge setup locally. Rain will remain widespread
across the region the rest of today with heavier/steadier rain
expected tonight (at least thru early Sat morning) as the sfc low
lifts NE along the coastal trough. Have high end likely/categorical
PoPs all areas thru 09z Sat. The rain and abundant cloud cover
today has really locked the cold air in place from about the
I-95 corridor on west where temps are mainly in the mid 30s to
mid 40s as of 3 pm. Meanwhile, temps closer to the coast have
reached the 50s. As WAA continues tonight, expect temps to
continue to rise along/west of I-95 while remaining steady east.
Low temps for the night across the Piedmont/I-95 corridor
should actually occur late this afternoon/evening. Lows from the
mid/upr 30s NW to the mid 50s SE. Latest model guidance does
show a push of "drier" air working in from the SW by about 09z
Sat as the sfc low lifts away to the NE. Will have lower PoPs
(40-50%) briefly working into the western half of the FA
between 09-12z Sat. Could also see some locally dense fog
develop to the SW of Richmond before daybreak as some mid-level
drying occurs above moist lower-levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM EST Friday...

The aforementioned sfc low lifts NE and well away from the mid-
Atlantic region Saturday morning. However, upper level energy
and a secondary sfc low rotating in from WNW will generate
additional rain chances from around 12z-18z in our SW FA to
15-21z close to the coast. NW flow will begin to take over in
the afternoon behind the departing sfc low, helping to trend
PoPs lower in the afternoon. However, cannot completely remove
PoPs for the afternoon as additional energy associated with an
upper level shortwave will still have to pass (slight chc to low
chc PoPs). Some breaks in the clouds will occur in the afternoon
SW. Highs from the low 50s NW to the low/mid 60s SE. Total QPF
through Saturday will average around 1" across the area.

Dry weather returns Saturday night into Sunday with WNW flow
developing. Fair to partly cloudy Saturday night, then mostly sunny
on Sunday. Lows Saturday night in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
Highs Sunday in the 50s. Sfc high pressure traverses the local
area Sunday night, then moves well offshore on Monday. Mid-level
riding along with SW flow developing out ahead of the next cold
front should help to boost max temps even further. Although,
increasing clouds and the potential for low stratus or fog
development Monday morning will prohibit max temps from reaching
their full potential. Forecast high on Monday from the upr
40s/nr 50 NW to the low/mid 60s SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 400 PM EST Friday...

An upper trough will be located over the central US early next week.
A sfc low pressure system is expected to develop across the southern
Plains. The low will track northeast as the upper trough moves east.
Models have come into closer agreement on the track of the center of
the low pressure system. It now looks like the sfc low will track
northeast west of the Appalachian Mountains, then track towards the
coast north of DC. The will put our entire area in warm sector of
the low pressure system. Therefore, high temperatures on Tuesday are
expected to approach the upper 60s across southeast VA and northeast
NC, near 60 across Delmarva, and upper 50s across central VA. A cold
front will push through the region as the center of the sfc low
crosses northern NJ/southern NY. Models disagree on the timing of
the passage of the front across the area. GFS moves the front off
shore well ahead of the ECMWF, likely due to the ECMWF having a more
amplified upper level trough across the eastern US. The forecast
leans towards the ECMWF with a front moving through Tuesday night
with rain likely.

Cooler air and drying conditions will filter into the area after the
passage of a cold front Tuesday night. Wednesday morning low
temperatures will drop to the upper 20s west of I-95 and upper 30s
along the coast. An upper level low pressure will track southeast
out of Canada and across the Northeast US Wednesday. This will bring
a reinforcing shot of colder air into the region. High temperatures
Wednesday will range from the upper 30s across central VA and MD
Eastern Shore to mid 40s across Hampton Roads and northeast NC. Low
temperatures Thursday morning will be in the low 20s (upper 20s at
the VA/NC beaches).

A cold high pressure system will settle across the region Thursday
with high temperatures ranging from mid 30s to near 40.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1245 PM EST Friday...

Widespread IFR/LIFR CIGS expected at all terminals through
tonight with rain overspreading the region. There could be some
locally dense fog SW of KRIC between 09z-12z Sat as pcpn begins
to let up. There should be a break in the steadiest rain by
around 9-12z, but then the next have of rain showers arrives
quickly from the SW by 15z at KRIC and translates eastward to
the eastern TAF sites through 18z. Degraded flight conditions
will continue through the entire 18z TAF period. N to E winds
less than 10 kt will become S or SW by around 12z Sat.

OUTLOOK...A gradual return to VFR conditions expected Sat
afternoon, with VFR conditions expected Sunday into early next
week. The next chance of rain and degraded flight conditions
comes on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 400 PM EST Friday...

The 1039mb high pressure continuest to move off the coast of Nova
Scotia this afternoon. SCA for waves in the upper coastal zones
remains in effect through Saturday. Meanwhile, an area of low
pressure in the Gulf of Mexico continues to move NE bringing with it
rain this afternoon through Saturday and then SCA conditions to the
bay, lower James River, and all coastal zones Saturday afternoon
into Sunday. Winds are mainly 10-15 kt this afternoon and are
expected to become 15-20kt by Saturday and 20-25kt with gust to 30kt
Saturday night into Sunday morning before subsiding to 10-15 kt by
Sunday night. Waves are generally around 2 feet in the Bay and will
increase to 3-4 feet by Saturday night. Seas are generally 4-6 feet
and will increase to 5-7 feet Saturday night. Conditions improve
Sunday night into Monday while high pressure moves into the
region.

Increased SW winds Mon night into Tue become moderate to strong NNW
winds post cold front by Tue night which continue into Wed night.
High prob for SCAs Mon night through Wed and possibly into Thu. Hi
pres builds over the waters by Fri resulting in lowering winds and
improved overall marine conditions.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 11 AM EST Sunday
     for ANZ632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for
     ANZ633-638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 8 AM EST Sunday for
     ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST Sunday for ANZ650-652-654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for ANZ656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...JDM
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...ALB/RMM