Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 132102 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 402 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will lift northeast from the Gulf coast through tonight, then track northeast along the eastern seaboard on Saturday. High pressure returns Sunday before the next system impacts the region Monday night and Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... As of 345 PM EST Friday... Latest sfc analysis depicts a coastal trough/stationary front extending north from FL along the mid-Atlantic coast to Long Island. Sfc low pressure was developing along the front over NE FL. The center of sfc high pressure is well off the New England coast but extends SW down the spine of the Appalachians with an in- situ wedge setup locally. Rain will remain widespread across the region the rest of today with heavier/steadier rain expected tonight (at least thru early Sat morning) as the sfc low lifts NE along the coastal trough. Have high end likely/categorical PoPs all areas thru 09z Sat. The rain and abundant cloud cover today has really locked the cold air in place from about the I-95 corridor on west where temps are mainly in the mid 30s to mid 40s as of 3 pm. Meanwhile, temps closer to the coast have reached the 50s. As WAA continues tonight, expect temps to continue to rise along/west of I-95 while remaining steady east. Low temps for the night across the Piedmont/I-95 corridor should actually occur late this afternoon/evening. Lows from the mid/upr 30s NW to the mid 50s SE. Latest model guidance does show a push of "drier" air working in from the SW by about 09z Sat as the sfc low lifts away to the NE. Will have lower PoPs (40-50%) briefly working into the western half of the FA between 09-12z Sat. Could also see some locally dense fog develop to the SW of Richmond before daybreak as some mid-level drying occurs above moist lower-levels. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 345 PM EST Friday... The aforementioned sfc low lifts NE and well away from the mid- Atlantic region Saturday morning. However, upper level energy and a secondary sfc low rotating in from WNW will generate additional rain chances from around 12z-18z in our SW FA to 15-21z close to the coast. NW flow will begin to take over in the afternoon behind the departing sfc low, helping to trend PoPs lower in the afternoon. However, cannot completely remove PoPs for the afternoon as additional energy associated with an upper level shortwave will still have to pass (slight chc to low chc PoPs). Some breaks in the clouds will occur in the afternoon SW. Highs from the low 50s NW to the low/mid 60s SE. Total QPF through Saturday will average around 1" across the area. Dry weather returns Saturday night into Sunday with WNW flow developing. Fair to partly cloudy Saturday night, then mostly sunny on Sunday. Lows Saturday night in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Highs Sunday in the 50s. Sfc high pressure traverses the local area Sunday night, then moves well offshore on Monday. Mid-level riding along with SW flow developing out ahead of the next cold front should help to boost max temps even further. Although, increasing clouds and the potential for low stratus or fog development Monday morning will prohibit max temps from reaching their full potential. Forecast high on Monday from the upr 40s/nr 50 NW to the low/mid 60s SE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 400 PM EST Friday... An upper trough will be located over the central US early next week. A sfc low pressure system is expected to develop across the southern Plains. The low will track northeast as the upper trough moves east. Models have come into closer agreement on the track of the center of the low pressure system. It now looks like the sfc low will track northeast west of the Appalachian Mountains, then track towards the coast north of DC. The will put our entire area in warm sector of the low pressure system. Therefore, high temperatures on Tuesday are expected to approach the upper 60s across southeast VA and northeast NC, near 60 across Delmarva, and upper 50s across central VA. A cold front will push through the region as the center of the sfc low crosses northern NJ/southern NY. Models disagree on the timing of the passage of the front across the area. GFS moves the front off shore well ahead of the ECMWF, likely due to the ECMWF having a more amplified upper level trough across the eastern US. The forecast leans towards the ECMWF with a front moving through Tuesday night with rain likely. Cooler air and drying conditions will filter into the area after the passage of a cold front Tuesday night. Wednesday morning low temperatures will drop to the upper 20s west of I-95 and upper 30s along the coast. An upper level low pressure will track southeast out of Canada and across the Northeast US Wednesday. This will bring a reinforcing shot of colder air into the region. High temperatures Wednesday will range from the upper 30s across central VA and MD Eastern Shore to mid 40s across Hampton Roads and northeast NC. Low temperatures Thursday morning will be in the low 20s (upper 20s at the VA/NC beaches). A cold high pressure system will settle across the region Thursday with high temperatures ranging from mid 30s to near 40. && .AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1245 PM EST Friday... Widespread IFR/LIFR CIGS expected at all terminals through tonight with rain overspreading the region. There could be some locally dense fog SW of KRIC between 09z-12z Sat as pcpn begins to let up. There should be a break in the steadiest rain by around 9-12z, but then the next have of rain showers arrives quickly from the SW by 15z at KRIC and translates eastward to the eastern TAF sites through 18z. Degraded flight conditions will continue through the entire 18z TAF period. N to E winds less than 10 kt will become S or SW by around 12z Sat. OUTLOOK...A gradual return to VFR conditions expected Sat afternoon, with VFR conditions expected Sunday into early next week. The next chance of rain and degraded flight conditions comes on Tuesday. && .MARINE... As of 400 PM EST Friday... The 1039mb high pressure continuest to move off the coast of Nova Scotia this afternoon. SCA for waves in the upper coastal zones remains in effect through Saturday. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico continues to move NE bringing with it rain this afternoon through Saturday and then SCA conditions to the bay, lower James River, and all coastal zones Saturday afternoon into Sunday. Winds are mainly 10-15 kt this afternoon and are expected to become 15-20kt by Saturday and 20-25kt with gust to 30kt Saturday night into Sunday morning before subsiding to 10-15 kt by Sunday night. Waves are generally around 2 feet in the Bay and will increase to 3-4 feet by Saturday night. Seas are generally 4-6 feet and will increase to 5-7 feet Saturday night. Conditions improve Sunday night into Monday while high pressure moves into the region. Increased SW winds Mon night into Tue become moderate to strong NNW winds post cold front by Tue night which continue into Wed night. High prob for SCAs Mon night through Wed and possibly into Thu. Hi pres builds over the waters by Fri resulting in lowering winds and improved overall marine conditions. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 11 AM EST Sunday for ANZ632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ633-638. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 8 AM EST Sunday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST Sunday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...JDM LONG TERM...CP AVIATION...JDM MARINE...ALB/RMM

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