Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 061148 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 648 AM EST Wed Dec 6 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A strong upper trough will swing across the area through this afternoon. High pressure builds in tonight through Thursday, before pushing offshore on Friday. A strong frontal system likely impacts the region on Sunday, bringing milder weather and a better chance for widespread rain Sunday and Sunday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 645 AM EST Wednesday Recent satellite imagery showing the upper trough axis about to swing through the local area over the next few hours. KAKQ radar showing majority of scattered shower activity over Hampton Roads as of this writing. The past few runs of HRRR continue to show additional scattered shower activity filling back in as the trough axis pushes toward the coast by midday, and will therefore carry 20-40% PoP mainly centered from Louisa to Norfolk through late morning, tapering off by late morning. Did note a few reports of wet snow or graupel just to our northwest north of our area in the Charlottesville vicinity via MPing, but will likely not have enough steady pcpn locally for much if any reports of mixed precipitation, even over the US-15 corridor out in our far NW counties. Therefore removed snow shower wording from the grids in Louisa/Fluvanna counties. Otherwise, no major changes needed attm. As of 325 AM EST Wednesday... Latest analysis and early morning WV satellite continues to show a potent mid-level shortwave diving southeast across the region early this morning. Surface low pressure continues to deepen well offshore of the Carolina coastal plain, as cool 1031+mb high pressure builds east from the Missouri Valley into the Mid- south early this morning. Forecast is largely playing out as expected this morning. Initial batch of light showers is pushing through the area, and is weakening with downsloping winds serving to scour out precipitation as it pushes toward the coast. Continued 20-40% PoP this morning for isolated to widely scattered showers through sunrise, but as that PoP would imply, quite a few will miss out on showers altogether. As the upper trough axis crosses through late this morning, do expect another round of showers to push in later this morning through midday. There remains a small chance for a few snowflakes or graupel to briefly mix in across the piedmont during this period. Maintained SNSH wording along the US-15 corridor ~12-13z this morning. Otherwise, cool and cloudy conditions for much of the day. Becoming increasingly breezy this afternoon, as pressure gradient tightens with approaching high pressure with the deepening low offshore. Subsidence behind the passing trough will allow for clearing from NW to SE from mid to late afternoon into early evening at the coast. The clouds in combination with the gusty NW winds will make for a chilly day with highs only rising into the mid to upper 40s. W-NW winds will average 10-15 mph inland, 15-20 mph along the coast, with gusts between 20-30 mph from I-95 on east are also forecast, peaking during the mid to late aftn and slowly diminishing this early evening. Total QPF generally once again averaging less than 0.10". High pressure continues to build into the region tonight. This will bring a gradually clearing sky, with winds slowly relaxing inland (remaining breezy along the coast). Markedly cooler tonight, especially inland with lows in the low to mid 20s, with upper 20s to mid 30s along the immediate coast. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 320 AM EST Wednesday... Remaining dry and cool relative to climo on Thursday with high pressure centered south of the local area. A shortwave will pass north of the region, leading to a bit of increased cloudiness across the northern half of the forecast area. Otherwise, it`ll be mostly sunny for most with highs in the upper 40s to around 50. Not quite as cold Thursday night with light SW flow across the region, lows will range from the upper 20s NW to the mid to upper 30s SE. High pressure slides offshore Friday morning, lingering offshore through the day on Friday. Temperatures begin to warm on Friday with highs generally in the upper 50s to around 60. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 320 AM EST Wednesday... The weekend will begin with little fanfare weatherwise. Surface high slides moves well out to sea Friday night through the weekend, with increasingly southerly flow allowing dry and milder weather to prevail Friday night and Saturday. Meanwhile, low pressure will begin to take shape over the central and southern high plains Friday night. That system is forecast to lift E-NE along a strong cold front Friday night into Saturday from the Gulf Coast up through the Ohio Valley. 00z/6 Models remain in good agreement regarding rainfall moving through the area, but are still split to a degree on timing. The latest GFS is now seemingly a bit of a fast outlier to the remainder of guidance, with the CMC/ECMWF and even the GFS` parent GEFS ensemble a forecast period or so slower. Given that the system takes on a negative tilt as it ejects northeast across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys, have steered the forecast a bit toward the slower solution, holding the rain over the area through Sunday evening. The triple point low will lift into the eastern Great Lakes Sat night into Sun morning, with the pre- frontal warm front lifting through the area Sat evening. Shallow WAA/isentropic lift will allow clouds to start to increase across our area during this period, with the widespread precipitation from the W-SW still appearing likely to overspread our area on Sunday. Temperature-wise, temperatures quickly moderate with return flow regime setting in across the region. Highs saturday in the upper 50s eastern shore to mid 60s inland. Sunday also looks quite mild with highs well above normal once again into the mid 60s to around 70 degrees. This system looks to bring some beneficial rainfall to the region, with both the latest ensemble mean of the 00z GEFS showing in excess of 0.50" of rainfall areawide and the EPS showing ~0.50-1.00". Will also need to keep an eye on potential for gusty winds and even a thunderstorm threat Sunday afternoon into Sunday night with such a dynamic system and very strong winds just off the surface. We will fine tune these details over the coming days. Behind the system, look for much cooler and drier air to filter into the region Monday into the middle of next week. Dry weather early next week as high pressure builds over the region in the wake of the front, with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 645 AM EST Wednesday... Low-end VFR/MVFR CIGs just pushing into our NW and expect these should gradually expand SSE into central VA through the next few hours, reaching the coast by mid-morning. These Sub-VFR CIGs are ahead of a potent upper trough which will cross the area through this morning. Winds are light out of the N-NNE inland (NNE along the coast), with winds to become NW all terminals by midday. MVFR CIGs are likely at all terminals (outside of SBY) after 12-14z and lingering into early afternoon along the coast. Some localized IFR CIGs are possible across central and SE VA, with best chances at RIC between 13-15z, though there is a lower chance of short-lived IFR at PHF-ORF between 14-16z. Continued to hold CIGs aoa 1000 ft in the TAF at this point for all terminals except RIC with guidance trending toward keeping CIGs predominately in MVFR range. Additionally, scattered showers will be pushing through the area this morning, clearing out by early afternoon. Gradual clearing and gusty winds (gusts to 20-25 kt) ensues behind the clipper system from late morning into this afternoon from NW to SE. Outlook: Once VFR/dry conditions return later today, they look to prevail through the remainder of the work week. A strong cold front approaches from the west from Saturday night into Sunday, bringing our next chances for sub-VFR conditions and gusty winds, along with additional periods of rainfall. && .MARINE... As of 320 PM EST Tuesday... Winds will shift from NE to N and increase this morning as an area of low pressure continues to deepen well east of the Outer Banks. At the same time, an area of high pressure, centered over the central U.S., will build east towards the coast today. The pressure gradient between the high pressure to the west and low pressure to the east will result in N winds at 20-25 kt and gusts 30-35 kt this afternoon and continuing into tonight. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect today and tonight for all local waters. The increased N winds will allow for seas to build to 5-7 ft, and waves in the bay 3-5 ft today and tonight. Winds are expected to decrease on Thursday and become more NW-WNW at 10-15 k,t then WSW at 15-20 kt by the afternoon as the low pressure move farther out to sea and the center of high pressure moves over the Southeast U.S.. Since the center of the high pressure will remain to our south, winds will be southwesterly 10-20 kt Friday and Saturday. Seas will be between 3 and 5 ft during this time, and waves in the bay will be 1-2 ft. A strong storm system is likely to impact the East Coast on Sunday. Strong S winds are possible ahead of a cold front with gale conditions possible. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ630>632- 634. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ633-638. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ635>637. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM EST Thursday for ANZ656-658. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...AJB/MAM LONG TERM...AJB/MAM AVIATION...MAM/SW MARINE...CP is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.