Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 010015 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 715 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will slowly lift north across the region through this evening. A cold front will cross the area from the northwest late tonight into Monday morning. Canadian high pressure returns Monday night through Tuesday. Low pressure tracks off the Carolina coast Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 645 PM EST Sunday... Significant changes made to the temp grids this eve as the models are not handling the frontal bndry vry well. What should be a northward moving front has trended back to the south over the past few hrs resulting in tmps falling arnd 10 degrees across parts of sern VA. In addition, widespread drizzle/fog have dvlpd north of the bndry across the Piedmont. Have issued an SPS to cover VSBYS aob 1/2 mile. Hrly tmp guid not much help either, so will give this the old "hand edited college try". Had to lwr mins for the nite by 5-10 degrees in some areas based on the mins occuring at 00Z with stdy or slowly rising readings across the south thru the nite. Appears the Piedmont may get stuck arnd 50 for quite a while. PoP wise, rain conts across the nrn most zones with addntl rain moving in from the west attm. Highest PoPs across the north after midnite. PVS DSCN: The cold front is expected to pass through the early Monday morning through midday bringing a period of rain to the entire area. A SW wind should become rather breezy ahead of the front across SE VA/NE NC late tonight into early Monday morning with speeds of up to 15 mph with gusts to 20-25 mph. High-res guidance still depicts some semblance of a thin convective line across SE VA/NE NC immediately along the front. This could produce some locally stronger wind gusts as 950mb wind is forecast to be 40-45kt. Additional QPF with the front is expected to be 0.2-0.35". Drier air arrives from NW-SE Monday afternoon with high temperatures Monday ranging from the low 60s NW to near 70F SE, but a somewhat non-diurnal temperature curve is expected. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 400 PM EST Sunday... Cool Canadian high pressure builds into the area Monday night into Tuesday. The sky is expected to clear along with the arrival of cooler temperatures. Forecast lows Monday night range from the upper 20s to low 30s, followed by highs in the low to mid 40s E, to upper 40s/around 50F W Tuesday. Another system moves across the Carolinas Tuesday night to off the Carolina coast later Wednesday. The latest guidance supports the best chc of rain across srn VA and NE NC. Precipitation may start out as a rain/snow mix across portions of the Piedmont late Tuesday night before transitioning over to rain. Confidence still remains below average with this solution due to widely differing model solutions. Forecast lows Tuesday night are in the upper 20s to mid 30s, followed by highs in the upper 40s to low 50s Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 400 PM EST Sunday... Mainly dry weather for Thursday into Friday. Generally near normal or slight above normal temps expected for most of the extended period. Another system potentially develops off the coast Friday night into Saturday. However, the general consensus amongst 28/12z deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to show low pressure to be well off the coast with cool high pressure to the N, and dry conditions locally. Cool and dry into next weekend per the latest guidance. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 645 PM EST Sunday... A front bndry remains nrly stnry across sern VA/ne NC this eve with widespread IFR ST/drizzle/fog north of it. VFR south of it at ECG. Models are showing srly winds increasing overnite allowing for some of the fog/ST to scour out with the frnt inching northward. Not confident this occurs at RIC/SBY but should at ORF/PHF after 06Z. Areas of rain will accompany a cold front as it crosses the area Mon. This keeps MVFR CIGS/VSBYS continuing into the aftrn. WSW winds become gusty ahead of it (15-25 kts), shifting to the NW behind it. OUTLOOK... High pressure builds in Mon night into Tues. Low pressure moves off the Carolina coast Wed. High pressure returns Thurs/Fri. && .MARINE... As of 715 PM EST Sunday... Issued a marine dense fog advisory for zones ANZ650 and ANZ652 until midnight. Obs off of OXB and WAL are down to half mile visby, and with the front still to the south over Virginia Beach, expect fog conditions to remain for at least several more hours. Previous discussion... Warm front extends off the Virginia coast this afternoon. Winds have become southerly across NC waters, but remain easterly to northeast north of Cape Charles. The warm front will continue to move north this evening. Winds will turn SW across all coastal waters. SCA has been issued for the southern portion of the Chesapeake Bay, Lower James River, and Currituck Sound tonight through Monday morning for SW winds 15-20 kt. Gusts will likely be around 20 kt for a few hours tomorrow morning. SCAs remain in effect for the ocean zones north of Cape Charles for seas around 5 ft. A strong cold front will move off the coast Monday morning. There may be a line of heavy showers producing gusty winds as the cold front moves off the coast between 7 AM and 11 AM Monday. Behind the front, winds will become NW 15-20 kt by Monday afternoon. Another SCA will likely be need for the bay. Colder air will move into the area Monday night, bringing an increase in the NW flow. Gale Watch remain in effect for the central portion of the Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic Ocean north of Cape Charles. Winds will be NW 25-30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt in these area. Elsewhere, winds will be NW 20-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. SCAs will most likely be needed for the remainder of our coastal waters. High pressure is expected to move over the region Tuesday with sub- SCA conditions. An area of low pressure is forecasted to track off the Carolina coast Wednesday, bring the next threat of SCA conditions, mainly for our southern waters. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ631>634. Gale Watch from Monday evening through late Monday night for ANZ630. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ638. Gale Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for ANZ652-654. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight EST Monday night for ANZ652-654. Dense Fog Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ650-652. Gale Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for ANZ650. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 11 PM EST Monday for ANZ650. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJB/AJZ NEAR TERM...AJZ/MPR SHORT TERM...AJB/AJZ LONG TERM...AJB/AJZ AVIATION...AJZ/MPR MARINE...CMF/CP is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.