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410
FXUS61 KAKQ 250512
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
112 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak low pressure passes through Virginia tonight, with a
stronger area of low pressure moving along an advancing cold
front on Monday. The front pushes south of the area Monday
night, with high pressure over the midwest building into the mid
Atlantic and northeast states into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 915 PM EDT Sunday...

Latest analysis indicates weak sfc low pressure moving across
northern VA this evening with a fast moving WSW flow in place
aloft. Skies have become partly/mostly cloudy this (high
clouds), but conditions remain dry with dew pts still mostly in
the 30s and temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s (except upper
40s eastern shore). Looking at satellite trends and the high res
model data suggests a mostly cloudy night, though there may be
some decrease in cloud cover after 06-09Z early Mon as this
initial sfc low moves off to the east. Much milder than last
night with lows primarily ranging from the upper 40s to the
lower 50s (models show winds diminishing a bit towards daybreak
to allow temperatures to fall to these levels).

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 915 PM EDT Sunday...

Models are in fairly good agreement with the main area of sfc
low pressure progged to be somewhere across the lower OH Valley
as of 12Z/Mon. However, the sfc low looks to become rather
broad/elongated by late morning into the aftn as it pushes into
southern VA. With the front progged to become nearly parallel to
the flow aloft, the boundary will have a difficult time pushing
much to the south through the day. This makes for a challenging
wind, temperature and precipitation forecast and the potential
for a significant gradient across the CWA by aftn. Have raised
highs a few degrees over NE NC and far southern VA near the NC
border (into the lower 70s), while portions of the eastern shore
will likely struggle to get out of the 50s (with falling
temperatures during the late aftn).

As for precipitation, models differ a bit on how much occurs
ahead of the sfc low, but the forcing does not look very
impressive out ahead of the boundary and sfc dew pts are only
progged to be in the 40s to lower 50s so this has sort of an
ana-frontal look to it (precip occurring mostly behind the
frontal passage). Expect little to no precipitation in the
morning and have lowered PoPs to only a chance over most of SE
VA/NE NC through 21Z (5pm). Farther inland and to the north
closer to the actual sfc low have maintained likely to
categorical PoPs moving in between 18-21Z.

At some point, the pcpn type will switch from a showery one to
more of a stratiformed rain behind the fropa. NAM is quicker
than the GFS with the wind shift. Some instability noted mainly
south of VA ST RT 460 late aftn for a minimal thunder threat as
the low and front push into the warmer air across the se.

Highs for the day may occur before 18Z across the north. Will
indicate a warm day ahead of the front with highs upr 50s-lwr
60s north with steady or falling temps after 18Z, with lower 70s
across interior southern VA and interior NE NC.


The entire system is slow to push off the coast Mon night. At this
point the entire fa has nne winds behind the front so pcpn will be
stratiformed. Highest PoPS in the eve, tapering off then ending
across the north after midnight, but with chc PoPs persisting
into early Tue morning across the se. Lows low- mid 30s north,
upr 30s-mid 40s south.

High pressure builds in from the north Tue thru Wed slowly pushing
the coastal low farther out to sea. Look for pt to mstly sunny skies
and cool once again. Highs Tue upr 40s-lwr 50s west of the Ches Bay,
mid-upr 40s near the water. Cold Tue night with lows upr 20s-
lwr 30s except mid 30 sern beaches. Highs Wed 50-55 west of the
Ches Bay, 45- 50 near the water.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Sunday...

High pressure settles over the area then shifts offshore late in the
week. This results in a dry period along with a slow warming trend.
Lows Wed night in the 30s. Highs Thurs mid 50s-lwr 60s. Lows
Thurs night upr 30s-mid 40s. Highs Fri lwr 60s-lwr 70s.
Continued dry and mild Sat as a cold front and assctd moisture
apprch but remain west of the mts. Highs mid 60s-mid 70s. Chc
shwrs Sun as the front crosses the area. Highs mid 60s-lwr 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 110 AM EDT Monday...

High clouds have begun to spread over the area as a low pressure
located over MO moves closer. CIGs will slowly lower from north
to south but will remain VFR tonight into the morning hours.
CIGs will begin to lower after 12z to 10-15k ft as a low
develops east of the mountains in the VA Piedmont. A frontal
boundary will form from north of KRIC to south of KSBY. North of
the front will remain OVC throughout the day, while south of
the front will be BKN. The cold front will move south in the
late afternoon and winds will switch from the SW to N/NE and
remain around 10 kt. Rain chances will increase after 20z and
CIGs will become OVC 5-10 k ft. IFR CIGs will overspread the
region after 26.00Z.


Outlook:
The low pressure will move south of the VA/NC border Monday
night bringing widespread rain to the area along with possible
IFR CIGs. VFR conditions will return Tuesday morning. A strong
NE flow will set up along the SE VA/NE NC coast Monday and
Tuesday with NNE winds of 25 kt with gust up to 40 kt at KORF
and 20 kt with gust up to 35 kt at KECG.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 330 PM EDT Sunday...

High pressure is centered along the NC OBX this afternoon, creating
local winds SSW 10-15 kt. Waves/seas 1-2 ft. High pressure moves
offshore tonight with SW winds 10-15 kt. Waves 1-2 ft; seas 2-4 ft.

Models remain in good agreement that a cold front will drop south
across the waters starting late Monday morning through early
evening, with winds quickly turning to the NNE post-frontal. Strong
north and northeast flow will follow the frontal passage with SCAs
likely Monday night and Tuesday for the northern Ches Bay, rivers
and coastal waters north of Parramore Island. Elsewhere, confidence
continues to increase that Gales will occur late Monday night
through Tuesday. Sfc low looks to slow/linger offshore Tuesday night
and early Wednesday, thus likely lingering SCA into Wednesday, at
least over over the lower Bay, Currituck Sound and southern coastal
waters. Over the ocean, seas build rapidly Monday night into Tuesday
given persistent/strong NE winds, reaching 5-8 feet N and 6-10 feet
S on Tuesday. A high surf advisory will likely be needed for at
least VA Beach south to Outer Banks Currituck. Even after winds
diminish late Wednesday, an extended period of elevated seas appear
likely over the coastal waters for much of the week ahead, given
prolonged onshore flow through midweek.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 7 PM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ630-631-635>637.
     Gale Watch from late tonight through Tuesday evening for
     ANZ632-634-654.
     Gale Watch from late tonight through late Tuesday night for
     ANZ633.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 PM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ638.
     Gale Watch from late tonight through late Tuesday night for
     ANZ656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB/MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...RHR/CP
MARINE...JDM/MPR/MAM