National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221150
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
650 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high pressure remains over the Mid-Atlantic region
today through Thursday. High pressure slides offshore Thursday
night into early Friday as low pressure approaches from the
west. This area of low pressure crosses the region Friday night
into early Saturday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 650 AM EST Wednesday...

The latest wv imagery reveals a split flow pattern with a nrn
stream trough pushing across Atlantic Canada, and srn stream
closed low off the GA/FL coast. At the surface 1034mb high
pressure is centered over the central Appalachians. Clear and
chilly early this morning, with temperatures ranging from the
upper teens to low 20s from the Piedmont to the MD Ern Shore,
to the low 30s for coastal SE VA/NE NC. A N wind of 5-10mph
inland to 10-15 with gusts to 20mph toward the coast is
resulting in wind chill readings in the teens to low 20s for
much of the area.

The high will remain over the Mid-Atlantic today under weak
flow aloft due to the split flow pattern. Sunny today with a few
lingering clouds over coastal NE NC. Temperatures moderate
toward seasonal averages, with forecast highs ranging from the
low to mid 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 350 AM EST Wednesday...

High pressure becomes centered from the Mid-Atlantic through
New England tonight through Thursday as an upper ridge builds
across the region. Clear and dry conditions should allow lows
tonight to drop to around 20F/low 20s inland to the upper
20s/low 30s for coastal SE VA/NE NC where light low-level NNE
flow persists. Mostly sunny Thursday with an increase in high
clouds. Temperatures will continue to moderate with highs
ranging from the mid/upper 40s N to the low 50s SE.

The upper ridge slides offshore Thursday night as a vigorous
closed upper low digs across the Mississippi Valley. This will
allow surface high pressure to slide offshore. High clouds
continue to increase. Lows Thursday night range from the upper
20s NW to upper 30s SE, and these values will likely be achieved
during the evening to early overnight hours, before becoming
steady inland and rising toward the coast.

Moisture quickly overspreads the area Friday ahead of the
approaching upper low. 22/00z model consensus suggest PoPs
increasing across the Piedmont during the 18-00z period, and
mostly likely 21- 00z. Mainly dry in the morning, with PoPs
increasing to 30-50% over the Piedmont during the aftn, 20-30%
over the I-95 corridor, and tapering to less than 15% toward the
coast. An in situ wedge will likely develop over the Piedmont,
with highs ranging from the mid/upper 40s over the Piedmont, to
the mid/upper 50s SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 350 AM EST Wednesday...

An upper-level trough will be digging south into the Midwest/Central
US Friday-Friday night. The trough will become a closed low and cut
off from the main upper-level flow and slowly migrate east. As the
closed low pressure aloft moves towards the east coast, it will
likely stay northwest of the southern Mid-Atlantic. However, a sfc
low will likely develop east of the Appalachian Mountains and track
from SW to NE across VA/MD. This will bring an area of rain showers
through the region Friday night into Saturday morning. As the sfc
low moves north of the area, rain chances will diminish for Saturday
afternoon/evening from south to north. However, the upper-level low
will still be in the vicinity of the CWA and may give areas across
central and northeastern VA and central Delmarva a few rain showers
Saturday afternoon/evening. A NW, downslope, flow will begin late
Saturday/Sunday and dry the area out as high pressure settles into
the region from the west for the early part of next week.

Throughout the Long Term period, temperatures will be near to
above average for late January. Temperatures on Friday night
will range from the upper 40s across northeast NC and southeast
VA to the upper 30s across central VA and MD Eastern Shore.
Temperatures during the day on Saturday will be dependent upon
the exact track of the sfc low. Current thinking is that highs
will range from the low 50s in far NW portions of the CWA to
near 60F across Hampton Roads and northeast NC. However, most
areas will remain in the mid-upper 50s. Low temperatures
Saturday night will range from the lower 30s in the piedmont to
the upper 30s over southeast VA and northeast NC. Highs Sunday
through Tuesday will remain near average with temperatures in
the mid 40s to lower 50s. Monday will be the coldest day with
all locations expected to stay below 50 degrees. Lows Sunday
night through Tuesday night will range from near 30 degrees in
the NW counties to the mid-upper 30s over SE counties of the
CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 650 AM EST Wednesday...

High pressure extends from the Ohio Valley to the nrn Mid-
Atlantic as of 12z, with low pressure located well off the
Southeast coast. Clear with a few bands of SC ~3kft along the
SE VA/NE NC coast near ORF/ECG. The wind is N 5-10kt at
RIC/SBY/PHF, and 12-15kt at ORF/ECG. The pressure gradient will
relax along the coast today into tonight as the low drops ESE
well off the Southeast coast. Therefore, the wind should
gradually diminish at ORF/ECG later today into tonight, and
become calm to very light tonight at RIC/SBY/PHF. Remaining
sunny/clear and generally VFR today into tonight, although the
bands of SC near the SE VA/NE NC coast could produce brief MVFR
conditions at ORF/ECG.

High pressure remains over the region Thursday and then slides
offshore Friday. Low pressure and an associated cold front will
bring an increased chc of rain and degraded flight conditions
Friday night into early Saturday. Upper level low pressure
crosses the region Saturday into Sunday, which should only bring
passing mid-clouds.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 350 AM EST Wednesday...

Strong high pressure centered over the Ohio valley will slide
over to the Mid-Atlantic region today. Meanwhile, an area of low
pressure sits well off the SE coast east of Florida. Winds are
N/NE 15-20 kts with gusts around 25 kts for the bay, Currituck
sound, central and southern coastal waters. Northern coastal
waters are 5-15 kts. Waves in the bay are 3-4 ft. Seas 2-4 ft
north and 4-7 ft south. Winds should gradually subside
throughout the day as the high moves closer to our area and the
low off the SE coast weakens and drifts further away. Expect NE
winds of 5-15 kts by later this evening. SCA for the bay goes
until 12Z this morning, but may need to be extended a few more
hours if winds continue to hover just above SCA criteria. The
middle coastal waters (ANZ654) SCA should be allowed to drop off
this afternoon, and Currituck sound SCA will drop off this
evening. SCA for the southern coastal waters will continue into
Thursday due to lingering elevated seas.

High pressure will remain in control through Thursday. Low
pressure and an associated cold front will impact area waters
late Friday into Saturday. This will result in SCA winds/seas
that will persist through the end of the weekend.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ654.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Thursday for ANZ656-658.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ633.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MPR
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MPR
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...CMF