Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 221150 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 650 AM EST Wed Jan 22 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian high pressure remains over the Mid-Atlantic region today through Thursday. High pressure slides offshore Thursday night into early Friday as low pressure approaches from the west. This area of low pressure crosses the region Friday night into early Saturday morning. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 650 AM EST Wednesday... The latest wv imagery reveals a split flow pattern with a nrn stream trough pushing across Atlantic Canada, and srn stream closed low off the GA/FL coast. At the surface 1034mb high pressure is centered over the central Appalachians. Clear and chilly early this morning, with temperatures ranging from the upper teens to low 20s from the Piedmont to the MD Ern Shore, to the low 30s for coastal SE VA/NE NC. A N wind of 5-10mph inland to 10-15 with gusts to 20mph toward the coast is resulting in wind chill readings in the teens to low 20s for much of the area. The high will remain over the Mid-Atlantic today under weak flow aloft due to the split flow pattern. Sunny today with a few lingering clouds over coastal NE NC. Temperatures moderate toward seasonal averages, with forecast highs ranging from the low to mid 40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 350 AM EST Wednesday... High pressure becomes centered from the Mid-Atlantic through New England tonight through Thursday as an upper ridge builds across the region. Clear and dry conditions should allow lows tonight to drop to around 20F/low 20s inland to the upper 20s/low 30s for coastal SE VA/NE NC where light low-level NNE flow persists. Mostly sunny Thursday with an increase in high clouds. Temperatures will continue to moderate with highs ranging from the mid/upper 40s N to the low 50s SE. The upper ridge slides offshore Thursday night as a vigorous closed upper low digs across the Mississippi Valley. This will allow surface high pressure to slide offshore. High clouds continue to increase. Lows Thursday night range from the upper 20s NW to upper 30s SE, and these values will likely be achieved during the evening to early overnight hours, before becoming steady inland and rising toward the coast. Moisture quickly overspreads the area Friday ahead of the approaching upper low. 22/00z model consensus suggest PoPs increasing across the Piedmont during the 18-00z period, and mostly likely 21- 00z. Mainly dry in the morning, with PoPs increasing to 30-50% over the Piedmont during the aftn, 20-30% over the I-95 corridor, and tapering to less than 15% toward the coast. An in situ wedge will likely develop over the Piedmont, with highs ranging from the mid/upper 40s over the Piedmont, to the mid/upper 50s SE. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 350 AM EST Wednesday... An upper-level trough will be digging south into the Midwest/Central US Friday-Friday night. The trough will become a closed low and cut off from the main upper-level flow and slowly migrate east. As the closed low pressure aloft moves towards the east coast, it will likely stay northwest of the southern Mid-Atlantic. However, a sfc low will likely develop east of the Appalachian Mountains and track from SW to NE across VA/MD. This will bring an area of rain showers through the region Friday night into Saturday morning. As the sfc low moves north of the area, rain chances will diminish for Saturday afternoon/evening from south to north. However, the upper-level low will still be in the vicinity of the CWA and may give areas across central and northeastern VA and central Delmarva a few rain showers Saturday afternoon/evening. A NW, downslope, flow will begin late Saturday/Sunday and dry the area out as high pressure settles into the region from the west for the early part of next week. Throughout the Long Term period, temperatures will be near to above average for late January. Temperatures on Friday night will range from the upper 40s across northeast NC and southeast VA to the upper 30s across central VA and MD Eastern Shore. Temperatures during the day on Saturday will be dependent upon the exact track of the sfc low. Current thinking is that highs will range from the low 50s in far NW portions of the CWA to near 60F across Hampton Roads and northeast NC. However, most areas will remain in the mid-upper 50s. Low temperatures Saturday night will range from the lower 30s in the piedmont to the upper 30s over southeast VA and northeast NC. Highs Sunday through Tuesday will remain near average with temperatures in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Monday will be the coldest day with all locations expected to stay below 50 degrees. Lows Sunday night through Tuesday night will range from near 30 degrees in the NW counties to the mid-upper 30s over SE counties of the CWA. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 650 AM EST Wednesday... High pressure extends from the Ohio Valley to the nrn Mid- Atlantic as of 12z, with low pressure located well off the Southeast coast. Clear with a few bands of SC ~3kft along the SE VA/NE NC coast near ORF/ECG. The wind is N 5-10kt at RIC/SBY/PHF, and 12-15kt at ORF/ECG. The pressure gradient will relax along the coast today into tonight as the low drops ESE well off the Southeast coast. Therefore, the wind should gradually diminish at ORF/ECG later today into tonight, and become calm to very light tonight at RIC/SBY/PHF. Remaining sunny/clear and generally VFR today into tonight, although the bands of SC near the SE VA/NE NC coast could produce brief MVFR conditions at ORF/ECG. High pressure remains over the region Thursday and then slides offshore Friday. Low pressure and an associated cold front will bring an increased chc of rain and degraded flight conditions Friday night into early Saturday. Upper level low pressure crosses the region Saturday into Sunday, which should only bring passing mid-clouds. && .MARINE... As of 350 AM EST Wednesday... Strong high pressure centered over the Ohio valley will slide over to the Mid-Atlantic region today. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure sits well off the SE coast east of Florida. Winds are N/NE 15-20 kts with gusts around 25 kts for the bay, Currituck sound, central and southern coastal waters. Northern coastal waters are 5-15 kts. Waves in the bay are 3-4 ft. Seas 2-4 ft north and 4-7 ft south. Winds should gradually subside throughout the day as the high moves closer to our area and the low off the SE coast weakens and drifts further away. Expect NE winds of 5-15 kts by later this evening. SCA for the bay goes until 12Z this morning, but may need to be extended a few more hours if winds continue to hover just above SCA criteria. The middle coastal waters (ANZ654) SCA should be allowed to drop off this afternoon, and Currituck sound SCA will drop off this evening. SCA for the southern coastal waters will continue into Thursday due to lingering elevated seas. High pressure will remain in control through Thursday. Low pressure and an associated cold front will impact area waters late Friday into Saturday. This will result in SCA winds/seas that will persist through the end of the weekend. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ654. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Thursday for ANZ656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ633. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MPR NEAR TERM...AJZ SHORT TERM...AJZ/MPR LONG TERM...RMM AVIATION...AJZ MARINE...CMF

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