Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 030115 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 915 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move south into the Mid-Atlantic tonight, and slowly move south towards the North Carolina border early Sunday. Tropical Storm Colin will track along the Carolina coast then out to sea. High pressure will build across the region on Independence Day. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... As of 915 PM EDT Saturday... The severe thunderstorm watch previously in place for Fluvanna and Louisa counties was canceled at 00z. The severe thunderstorm watch for Dorchester County in MD was allowed to expire at 01z. The flow aloft is zonal across the Mid- Atlantic this evening around the base of a trough over Eastern Canada. At the surface, a cold front is pushing through the upper Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, minimal TS Colin is centered near the coast at the NC/SC border. Showers/tstms that formed along the Blue Ridge earlier this afternoon struggled to move E off the higher terrain and did not make it to the local area. The cold front will continue to approach from the NW late this evening. Showers/tstms may develop across the NW Piedmont counties, and later into the MD Eastern Shore. Showers, and a few isolated tstms given some instability aloft potentially linger from the Northern Neck to the MD Eastern Shore overnight with the cold front in the area. Warm and humid tonight with lows around 70F/lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 400 PM EDT Saturday... The cold front will gradually move south across southern VA into northern NC Sunday. Mainly showers in the morning in vicinity of the front, with tstms by afternoon, especially across southern VA/NE NC. Additionally, PW values are expected to be ~2.0". Therefore, the main threat is locally heavy rain, with a minimal threat of damaging wind gusts. PoPs begin the day at 20-40%, then increase to 40-60% by afternoon for extreme southern VA into NE NC. Drier air will arrive from the N during the afternoon from central VA into SE MD. Forecast highs Sunday are mainly in the mid 80s to near 90F. The latest trends continue to show the front moving south of the are Sunday night into Monday, as the tropical system moves offshore. Conditions are trending pleasant for Independence Day with dewpoints dropping to the lower 60s, with some upper 50s possible. Lows Sunday night range from the lower 60s NW to near 70F SE, followed by highs Monday in the mid 80s to near 90F. Mainly dry Monday night with lows in the mid 60s to near 70F. Moisture increases Tuesday as high pressure moves offshore. There is a chc for afternoon showers/tstms as a boundary drops in from the NW. Highs Tuesday are mainly in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with lower to mid 80s at the immediate coast. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 400 PM EDT Saturday... An unsettled weather pattern is expected for the middle to end of next week. A ridge is expected to build over the southern CONUS from TX to GA as a trough develops over the northeastern CONUS. Multiple boundaries or cold fronts are expected to push through the area in NW flow aloft bringing chcs for mainly afternoon/evening showers/tstms. High temperatures will be seasonal and mainly be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, with low temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 740 PM EDT Saturday... A cold front is approaching from the NW as of 00z. Meanwhile, minimal TS Colin in located near Wilmington, NC. The wind is generally SW 5-10kt, but a little higher near the coast where gusts are up to ~25kt. Showers/tstms from earlier this afternoon avoided the local area, staying confined to the higher terrain to the W. The cold front is forecast to drop S across the region late tonight through Sunday morning. The wind is expected to shift to N or NE behind the front, with the potential for MVFR cigs developing behind the front (and possibly IFR at RIC). There is a 30-50% chc of showers morning through midday at RIC, and then a 30-50% chc of showers/tstms at ORF/PHF/ECG during the aftn. Any MVFR/IFR cigs should lift later Sunday morning. High pressure builds across the region Sunday night into Monday bringing dry and VFR conditions. A more unsettled pattern develops Tuesday through Thursday with daily chcs of aftn/evening showers/tstms. && .MARINE... As of 300 PM EDT Saturday... This afternoon, a cold front is slowly approaching the waters from the northwest and will slowly cross the waters later tonight through tomorrow. Meanwhile, (weak) Tropical Storm Colin is located near the coastal NC/SC border and is expected to gradually move off to the NE through tomorrow. Breezy S to SW winds ahead of the front this afternoon, with wind speeds around 10 to 15 knots and gusts to 20 knots. It will remain breezy into this evening before winds begin to relax later tonight. Will also have to watch the potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening, especially over the northern waters, which could bring heavy rain, frequent lightning, and some localized wind gusts in excess of 34 knots. Seas are running around 2 to 4 feet and waves in the Chesapeake Bay are around 1 to 2 feet. The front ever so slowly drops south across the waters tonight through tomorrow, likely stalling at times, with winds becoming NNW and then eventually NE in the wake of the front. Wind speeds will remain below 10 knots tomorrow outside of the far southern waters where some slightly higher winds (~15 knots) may be felt due to TS Colin. High pressure builds offshore early next week which will allow for ESE winds on Monday, gradually becoming SSW by Tuesday. Seas will generally range from 2 to 3 feet on Monday, building to 2 to 4 feet later Tuesday into Tuesday night. The center of Tropical Storm Colin is still forecast to track south of the local waters (over Hatteras Island) Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening, before moving out to sea and likely dissipating by Sunday night. The latest wind forecast still has the majority of the tropical storm force winds confined to the southeastern quadrant of the storm, thus little to no impacts are anticipated for the local waters. Any build up of seas should also remain fairly limited due to the forecast track. As always, continue to follow NHC for the latest information. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJZ/CP NEAR TERM...AJZ/AM SHORT TERM...AJZ/CP LONG TERM...AJZ/CP AVIATION...AJZ/AM MARINE...ALB

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