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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 202000
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
400 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses the area this evening. High pressure
returns Tuesday and Wednesday, then shifts off the coast late in
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 345 PM EDT Monday...

Latest analysis indicates a strong low pressure system over
Quebec, with a trailing cold front extending SW and now pushing
down the east slope of Appalachians. A WSW flow prevails aloft,
with the center of the upper ridge over the Gulf of Mexico
extending NE into the Gulf Stream off the Carolina coast.

Currently seeing a broken line of showers/tstms moving into
central VA out ahead of the front. With warm temperatures once
again (mostly ranging from 85 to 90F), there is about 1000-1500
J/Kg of ML CAPE over most of the area. Shear is not overly
impressive however, generally only 25-30 kt (with some higher
values to our N). While an isolated strong to marginally severe
storm still can`t be ruled out through early this evening, more
likely we will just see gusty winds to ~35 mph and brief heavy
downpours with the storms. Have PoPs up to 40-50% in about a 20
mile-wide zone out ahead of the current activity through 22Z,
then shifting it slowly E/SE with 30-40% PoPs through 00Z.
For SE VA/NE NC, generally have the highest PoPs from 00Z to
04Z. The front and associated pcpn pushes offshore from 03-06Z
with clearing behind it. Winds shift to the NNW and CAA allows
temps to drop into the mid-upr 50s NW to the mid 60s SE for
overnight lows. It will remain fairly breezy in the wake of the
front along the Bay and coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Monday...

Tues/Wed will be much cooler and drier (even slightly below avg
for temperatures in some areas). This as high pressure centered
over the Great Lakes gradually builds SE into the local area by
Tue aftn through Tue night, then becomes centered from the
eastern Great Lakes to the VA coast on Wed. Dry with mostly
sunny skies both Tue/Wed and mostly clear Tue night. Highs
Tuesday mostly in the 70s except near lower 80s possible south
central VA to interior NE NC. Dew pts will fall into the 40s N
and the lower-mid 50s S. Lows Tue night in the 50s except some
upr 40s psbl in those normally cooler locations over the
Piedmont. Highs Wed upper 70s to lower 80s inland, and lower to
mid 70s near the Bay and Ocean.

The high shifts east Wed night and Thurs allowing the start of
the next warmup. Models continue to show a NW flow upr level
flow pattern setting up that could allow for another round of
upstream convective to dive se. GFS remains most aggressive with
this, while the NAM/ECMWF are genly drier. Timing can be a
problem this far out so kept sonly ~20% PoPs in the forecast fro
late Wed night into Thu. light chc PoPs in for now with plenty
of time to update as necessary. Lows Wed night upr 50s- lwr 60s.
Highs Thurs mid- upr 80s, upper 70s- lwr 80s near the water.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...

A few tstms are possible (highest chances NE) Thu night as a weak
disturbance in NW flow aloft tracks through the region. Otherwise,
strong upper-level ridging (and associated anticyclone) remains
centered over the Southeast for much of the extended period while a
series of shortwaves track well to our N (from the Upper Midwest to
New England). As a result, very high confidence in above average
temperatures (and mostly dry conditions) from Fri through early next
week. A weak cold front may try to sneak into nrn/ern portions of
the CWA on Sat AM, but no pcpn is expected with the FROPA. The front
quickly washes out during the day on Sat. Perhaps a brief
shower/tstm Sat night, but otherwise dry this weekend. Slight
chances for mainly aftn-evening showers/tstms may return early next
week as the center of the anticyclone retreats slightly to the
southwest. Highs mainly in the low-mid 90s inland on Fri with mid
80s-around 90F near the coast. Still very warm on Sat with highs
ranging from the mid 80-low 90s (highest inland/coolest over the
Lower MD Ern Shore). Sunday may be the hottest day of the weekend
with highs will be in the mid 90s in most areas w/ upper 80s on the
Lower Ern Shore. Lows throughout the extended period will mainly in
the mid 60s-around 70F.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Monday...

Scattered showers/tstms are moving into central VA over the next
few hrs and may affect KRIC from 21Z-00Z and other TAF sites
after 23Z. Brief heavy downpours with IFR VSBYs and gusty winds
to around 30 kt will be possible in any tstm. The cold front
will be pushing to the SE VA/NE NC coast from 03-06Z, with some
lingering showers possible over the SE. Have VCTS or VCSH in all
TAFs into the evening. Dry/clearing out as winds shift to the
NW tonight behind the fropa and then to the NNE on Tue
(remaining gusty to ~20 kt at the coast). VFR/mostly sunny Tue.


OUTLOOK...
VFR conditions continue late Tue through Wed as high pressure
is slow to move east. A NW flow pattern sets up by the end of
the week. This may lead to sct convection moving NW-SE across
the area starting late Wed night and Thu.


.MARINE...
As of 330 PM EDT Monday...

S-SW winds 10-15 knots Bay and 10-20 knots ocean will continue into
this evening, before a cold front sweeps across the waters tonight.
Fairly modest pressure rises occur behind the frontal passage, with
high res guidance still showing a surge of NNW winds in the wake of
the front late tonight/early Tuesday. Winds in the Bay and lower
James River will generally run 15-20 knots with gusts to 25 knots.
Accordingly, SCAs remains in effect for these areas from late
tonight through 10 AM Tuesday. Waves will briefly build to 3 ft
overnight and then subside to 1-2 ft by Tuesday afternoon. Winds
offshore will also run 15-20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots and
seas 3-4 ft in offshore flow. Winds decrease to 5-15 knots later
Tuesday into Wednesday before swinging around to the ENE and then
SSW by Thursday as high pressure moves offshore and ridging aloft
builds over the Southeast. There is the potential for another cold
frontal passage on Friday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
* Records for Today/Mon 5/20:

* Salisbury so far has a new record high min today if this
  value stands through midnight LST (1am EDT).

* Site       Record High Record High Min

* Richmond:  96 (1934)    71 (2018) (actual low 69)
* Norfolk:   98 (1996)    73 (1996) (actual low 71)
* Salisbury: 98 (1911)    70 (2018) *(actual low 71)
* Eliz City: 98 (1996)    73 (2018) (actual low 71)


* Avg Date of 1st 90F (1981-2010 Climatology):

* Site       Avg        2019 Value

* Richmond:  May 13th   (Sun 5/19)
* Norfolk:   May 16th   (Sun 5/19)
* Salisbury: May 27th   (none so far)
* Eliz City: May 18th   (Sat 5/18)

* Number of Days of 90F+ in May:

* Site       Avg       Most

* Richmond:   2 days   11 days (1962)
* Norfolk:    2 days   13 days (1880)
* Salisbury:  1 day     7 days (1991)
* Eliz City:  2 days    9 days (1944 & 1941)

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for
     ANZ630>632-634-638.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB
LONG TERM...ERI
AVIATION...LKB/MPR
MARINE...JDM/RHR
CLIMATE...AKQ