907
FXUS61 KALY 191745
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
145 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Building high pressure will bring dry weather, clearing skies,
and a warming trend through midweek with hot temperatures
possible Tuesday and Wednesday. An approaching cold front will
see chances for showers and thunderstorms across the region late
Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Upper ridging and surface high pressure building into the
region will bring continued dry weather and comfortable
temperatures through tonight. An upper low over the North
Atlantic has brought persistent overcast to much of New
England, while to the west of the Taconics and Greens, much
clearer skies have spread across the region aside from enhanced
coverage of fair-weather cumulus over areas of higher terrain.

Following afternoon highs in the upper 60s to low 70s across
western New England and in higher terrain west of the Hudson,
and mid to upper 70s or even a few 80 degree readings elsewhere
along the Hudson and Mohawk Valleys, temperatures will remain
mild overnight, falling to lows in the upper 40s to low 50s in
western New England, and low to mid 50s across eastern New York.
Beneath clearing skies, efficient radiative cooling may yield
areas of valley fog and mist overnight. Continued stratus cloud
coverage over eastern New England may reach west into the
Greens, Berkshires, and Litchfield Hills, thereby reducing the
chances for fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The work/school week will open with the anomalous mid and upper
level ridge over the region folding in from the west/southwest.
Expect the partly to mostly sunny conditions with strong
synoptic subsidence. The NAEFS indicates H850 temps +1 to +2
STDEVS above normal. Max temps will run about 10 degrees above
normal with light south/southeast winds. Mixing depths will be
shallow. Highs will in the in the 80-85F range in the valleys
and 70s over the higher terrain. Monday night will not be as
cool as the previous night, as some cirrus or convective debris
clouds may move in from the Great Lakes Region. Still...pleasant
conditions will lows in the 50s to around 60F in a few spots.

Tue-Tue night...The mid level flow becomes zonal over northern
NY and northern New England. A lead sfc cyclone moves across
southeast Ontario into Quebec. A cold front remains across the
Great Lakes Region. The warming trend continues, as the H850
temps remain above normal by 1-2 STDEVs with the actual values
getting up to +14C to +16C. The uptick of temps continues with
highs about 15 degrees above normal with mid 70s to lower 80s
over the higher terrain and mid to upper 80s in the valley
areas. Humidity level will increase to modest/moderate levels
with upper 50s to mid 60s over the region. A few showers or
thunderstorms could pop-up ahead of a prefrontal disturbance if
the convective temps are reached over the Adirondack Park,
western Mohawk Valley and the Lake George Region. These should
fizzle with the loss of the diurnal heating. The skies will be
come mostly clear with mild lows in the 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Long term period begins at 12z Wednesday with a closed upper low and
associated sub-990 mb surface low located over the western Great
Lakes region. During the Wednesday into Thursday timeframe, these
features will track to our north/northwest across southern Canada,
and the trailing cold front associated with the surface low will
track through our region. Confidence is increasing that the cold
front will remain to our west on Wednesday, which will keep our
region in the warm sector. Temperatures will climb well into the 80s
for valley areas, with portions of the Capital District and the CT
River Valley potentially seeing highs right around 90. Dew points
will "only" be in the upper 50s to low 60s, so heat indices/feel-
like temperatures will be similar to the actual temperature and it
does not currently look like we will hit heat advisory criteria. A
couple of afternoon showers or isolated thunderstorms are possible,
mainly west of I-87 as a pre-frontal trough tracks through the
region, although warm temperatures aloft will likely prevent storms
from becoming strong to severe.

There are still some considerable differences in the guidance
regarding the timing of the front. The GFS is the most progressive,
likely due to the fact that it does not close off the upper low but
rather keeps it as an open wave over the upper midwest. Possible
timing for the frontal passage ranges from Wednesday night to
Thursday evening. If the front comes through Thursday afternoon or
evening then there could be enough overlap of shear and instability
for some stronger storms, while an earlier frontal passage would
coincide with less instability and a reduced threat for severe
weather. Will continue to monitor this period closely and refine the
forecast as additional guidance becomes available. Lows Wednesday
night will be in the 50s and 60s. Highs Thursday will be highly
dependent on the timing of the front, but areas ahead of the front
could see temperatures well into the 80s. The best chance of this is
south and east of Albany. Lows THursday night will generally be in
the 50s, and there could be a few showers/thunderstorms lingering in
the evening if the cold front is on the slower side.

Friday through the weekend, we will be in a post-frontal airmass
with cold advection, northwesterly winds, and high pressure tracking
near our region. If the upper low tracks close enough to our region
then there is a chance for a few pop-up showers with daytime heating
on Friday, but otherwise the second half of the long term should
feature quieter weather. Temperatures will be much cooler behind
the front, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s to low 50s each
night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through
this evening with sct-bkn fair wx cu at 3-5 kft and unrestricted
vsbys as high pressure continues build into the region. As skies
trend clearer overnight, patchy radiation fog/mist may develop in
sheltered valleys or near water bodies, most likely at GFL where IFR
vsbys have been included after 08Z Mon, but also possibly at POU/PSF
with confidence currently only high enough to include MVFR vsbys
after 08Z Mon. Alternatively, MVFR stratus may move in from the
southeast at PSF overnight, which would in turn limit the potential
for any fog/mist. Otherwise, VFR conditions will persist as diurnal
cu at 3-5 kft increases again after 12Z Mon.

Winds continue at 5-10 kt through the afternoon, generally out of
the northeast. Speeds diminish after 00Z Mon to 5 kt or less, with
calm to light and variable winds expected overnight at all terminals.
Winds increase to 3-6 kt out of the south to southwest after 12Z Mon.

Outlook...

Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperature for May 20:

Albany: 91 in 1962
Glens Falls: 90 in 1975
Poughkeepsie: 91 in 1975

Record High Temperature for May 21:

Albany: 92 in 1941
Glens Falls: 93 in 1921
Poughkeepsie: 95 in 1996

Record High Temperature for May 22:

Albany: 97 in 1911
Glens Falls: 98 in 1911
Poughkeepsie: 98 in 1941

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Picard
NEAR TERM...Picard
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Main
AVIATION...Picard
CLIMATE...Speciale