Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC
858 FXUS62 KCAE 131750 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 150 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry high pressure remains over the area again Friday. A weak front moves in from the north Saturday, with a slight increase in moisture. Mainly expect isolated afternoon convection to be possible through the middle of next week. Hot temperatures are expected throughout much of the forecast period. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure remains in place to our north this afternoon. The pressure gradient between this feature and an area of low pressure off the coast has produced periodically gusty east to northeast winds this afternoon. We are also watching the sea breeze boundary which, as expected, has resulted in shower and isolated thunderstorm development along the coast. The probability of any convection reaching our forecast area today remains very low (under 10%) but trends will be monitored. The forecast area can expect scattered clouds for the remainder of the day with high temperatures generally in the lower 90s. Skies clear out tonight but given the overall dry conditions, any fog should be limited to near bodies of water. The clear skies should allow temperatures to be cooler than last night with forecast lows in the mid to upper 60s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Friday will still be mostly dry as high pressure will continue across the area. Weak stationary surface front well south does extend northward and off the SC/GA coast, with low pressure developing along it through the day. This low remains well offshore and will be tracking away from the region. Moisture across the area will remain limited, and a continued subsidence inversion should limit any kind of rain activity to areas much closer to the coast. Temperatures do reach into the middle 90s, and heat index values will be similar due to the dry air in place. Friday night will see a weak cold front moving towards the area from the north, but once again the airmass ahead of the front will be too dry for any rainfall to develop across our area. Overnight lows generally in the lower 70s. For Saturday, the front moves in and through, but really wont see much impact for temperatures. Exception may be across the very northern Midlands and Pee Dee where highs in the lower 90s will be possible. Meanwhile elsewhere, guidance still generally giving mid to upper 90s, with heat index values around 100 degrees. Continue to strongly encourage those that will be outdoors to take frequent breaks and hydrate well. The subsidence inversion will be weakening on Saturday however with dry air expected to remain in the mid levels with light northerly to northwesterly winds lending a bit of downsloping any potential for convection would be in the eastern Midlands, and very isolated at best. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Much of the longer term period will see a strong upper ridge across the region. At the surface, the center of an area of high pressure off to our north will slowly be moving eastward off the New England coast. This will eventually turn low level winds more off the Atlantic, bringing an increase in moisture. Even with the slightly better moisture, only expecting isolated afternoon convection through the period due to the strength and position of the upper ridge. Temperatures through the long term will remain in the low to mid 90s with heat index readings slightly higher each afternoon. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Breezy Winds Possible this Afternoon as VFR Conditions Persist. High pressure remains in place to our north this afternoon. The pressure gradient between this feature and an area of low pressure off the coast has produced periodically gusty east to northeast winds at the terminals this afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions continue with mostly scattered cumulus and 4000 to 6000 foot bases being observed. These clouds will dissipate after sunset with winds becoming light and variable tonight. No significant flight hazards are currently anticipated barring a low risk of patchy fog at OGB and AGS. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant restrictions are expected through Saturday. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Sunday and Monday but current confidence on restrictions is low. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$