522
FXUS61 KCAR 011034
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
634 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper disturbance drifts and stalls over the Maritimes while
surface high pressure builds in this weekend. A weak system
tracks south of Maine early week with high pressure remaining
overhead into midweek. High pressure drifts southeast of the
Gulf of Maine into Thursday as a storm system tracks into the
Great Lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6:34AM Update...Minor tweak to sky conditions with a mix of sun
and clouds this morning across the Central Highlands. No other
changes...

Previous Discussion...
We are on the boundary of changing airmass today across Maine
with an upper disturbance over the Maritimes stalling near Nova
Scotia due to North Atlantic blocking (-NAO). 925mb temps
warming into the +12C to +15C range across our western CWA with
+9C to +10C in eastern areas. Expecting mostly sunny skies
across much of the CWA except in eastern areas near New
Brunswick and Downeast where the moisture around the 500mb low
will bring skies to be more partly sunny. Warmest temps will be
across the western and northern zones with upper 60s to low 70s.
In Washington County from the coast northward to Danforth will
be the cooler spots in the mid to upper 60s. Additionally, winds
along the shoreline today will shift in the afternoon to be a
weak sea breeze. Given temperatures near 70F or slightly warmer
at the request of the United States Coast Guard we have put a
Beach Hazard Statement up for the messaging of cold water
safety, additionally over inland areas an SPS is out for cold
water safety. Except at the shore the winds across the area are
northerly generally 5-10mph with gusts at times up to 20mph.

Tonight, surface high pressure drifts over western New England
with the 500mb ridge continuing to be squeezed between the
Maritime low and a shortwave entering the eastern Great Lakes.
Another clear and calm night tonight with temperatures falling
back into the low to mid 40s except a few 38-39F readings in the
North Woods cold spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will begin to slowly work into the area during the
day on Sunday. As this ridge of high pressure slowly approaches,
a deep low pressure system the Canadian Maritimes will slowly
retrograde towards Maine from the east. The trend has been for
the high pressure ridge to be slow enough to establish in the
forecast area, that a 700mb vort max will be able to push
westward in to the area late Sunday into Sunday night. High
pressure will keep skies clear on Sunday, while cloud cover
increases into Sunday night as the vort max enters the area,
followed by an increased chance for light rain showers into the
day on Monday.

The area of vorticity will exit the area into Monday night as
the ridge of high pressure shifts further east and over our
forecast area. With this shift, the chance for rain will also
decrease into the night, and skies will begin to slowly clear.

Temperatures will be slightly above average through the short
term, with highs in the mid to upper 70s and lows in the lower
50s. With light winds under partly to mostly clear skies, a
daily sea breeze is expected along the coast, which will keep
high temperatures along the immediate coast a bit cooler than
the Interior Downeast region.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will continue into the middle of the upcoming
week, keeping skies partly to mostly clear. And as the same air
mass as described in the short term remains overhead,
temperatures will persist slightly above normal through the
middle of the week. The next chance for measurable rainfall will
approach in the form of a cold front moving towards the area
from the west on Friday. There is still some uncertainty in
storm track and especially in timing, with potential for this
feature to not arrive until the upcoming weekend. That said,
there is consistency across global models in the existence of
this low pressure system, and that it may tap into the Gulf of
Mexico as a moisture source, drawing moisture to support
measurable rainfall into our forecast area at the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR through tonight. N winds 5-15kt. BHB will shift
E-SE this afternoon with a sea breeze. Tonight winds become
calm.

SHORT TERM:
Sunday - Wednesday: Generally VFR conditions across all
terminals, with light winds generally out of the north around 5
kts Sunday and Monday, becoming more southerly by Wednesday.
Coastal terminals could see a shift to southerly winds each
afternoon with a sea breeze.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas remain below SCA conditions through
tonight. N-NE winds this morning less than 15kt shift E-SE this
afternoon before becoming W tonight less than 10kt. Seas 1-2ft
today with a period of 7 seconds. Seas subsiding to 1ft or less
on the intra-coastal waters tonight and 1-2ft on the coastal
waters. Wave periods remain around 7 seconds. Sea surface
temperatures in the mid to upper 40s extend from the Downeast
coast out 25nm and east to the Hague Line including
Passamaquoddy Bay.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas are expected to remain below small
craft advisory levels Sunday through Wednesday, with winds light
and variable and seas around 1 to 2 ft.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Sinko
Short Term...AStrauser
Long Term...AStrauser
Aviation...Sinko/AStrauser
Marine...Sinko/AStrauser