082
FXUS61 KCAR 030105
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
905 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A back door cold front approaches from the east overnight, then
crosses the area from east to west on Monday, before
dissipating Monday night. Weak high pressure then returns to the
region through Tuesday night, before slowly drifting east
Wednesday and Wednesday night. A complex storm system then
slowly approaches from the west late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
9:05 PM Update: A dry air mass in place this evening as can be
seen on the 00z Caribou sounding. Moisture will rotate around an
upper low east of Nova Scotia, and this will cause clouds to
back into far eastern Maine Monday morning. It will remain
mainly clear for the remainder of this evening and tonight
across the area and temperatures will drop off fairly quickly,
but it will not be nearly as cool as the past several nights. No
significant changes are planned.

Tonight...
Not much change in the overall setup tonight, especially this
evening, with mostly clear skies and light winds. Late in the
night, the upper level high pressure drifts ever so slightly to
the west and a vort max and weak backdoor cold front rotating
around the quasi-stationary low off Nova Scotia approach from
the east. This backdoor cold front could bring scattered showers
to the Eastport area and increased clouds along the New
Brunswick border very late tonight. But otherwise, looking like
a quiet night with temperatures a bit warmer than last night.

Monday...
The above mentioned backdoor cold front progresses west across
our area and weakens through the day. There isn`t much moisture
to work with and went with just isolated showers across most of
the area on Monday. Temperatures will be a bit cooler than
Sunday especially in the east, with highs ranging from around
70 near the New Brunswick border to near 80 over the Western
North Woods. More clouds than Sunday as well, with generally
partly cloudy skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The region remains on the backside of a cutoff low over the
southeastern Maritimes and the front side of a deep layered
ridge to the west Monday night-Wednesday night.

There should be some low level moisture around Monday night and
Tuesday for some clouds to form with passing shortwaves going
around the backside of the cutoff low. Lows Monday night should
be a few degrees above normal and highs on Tuesday around 5
degrees above normal.

The low levels should dry Tuesday night, allowing for the sky
to become mostly clear to clear. Lows Tuesday night should be
around 5 degrees above normal.

A more vigorous shortwave passes on Wednesday, it also should be
a little farther west than the shortwaves Monday night and
Tuesday. As a result have a slight chance for some showers over
portions of the North Woods and Central Highlands Wednesday
afternoon. Temperatures should continue to be seasonably warm on
Wednesday with highs around 10 degrees above normal, with many
locations across the interior, except for higher elevations,
being around the 80 degree mark.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The models have come into slightly better agreement on their
handling of a cutoff low tracking from South Central Canada
Wednesday night to the vicinity of the eastern Great Lakes on
Saturday. They then differ if that system goes to our north,
south or over the region on Sunday. The result will be, after a
dry Wednesday night, unsettled weather over the region
Thursday- Sunday, with a chance of showers. Until the exact
track/timing/strength of the cutoff low is better known, its to
early to add in a chance of thunder. However, if the cold pool
associated with the system goes over us, there could indeed be
some rumbles of thunder.

Temperatures should be above normal Wednesday night through at
least Friday night. For now above normal Temperatures are
forecast Saturday-Sunday as well, but temperatures could end up
significantly cooler if the upper level cold pool goes over the
region for the upcoming region.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Generally VFR through Monday. Wind becoming light and
variable late this evening and overnight. NE wind 5-10 kts
Monday. Only possible exception to VFR is MVFR cigs possibly
moving into Washington County after 8z tonight and perhaps
lingering until about 18z Monday. There is a chance (30%) that
these MVFR ceilings could reach HUL as well between 12-18z
Monday, but kept the 00Z Taf VFR for now given the low
confidence.

SHORT TERM:
Monday night-Wednesday night...VFR.

Thursday-Friday. Mainly VFR, with brief periods of MVFR
possible in any showers.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Conditions well below small craft with no marine fog.

SHORT TERM: A light pressure gradient over the waters Monday
night through Friday should limit winds to 10 kt or less. Seas
should be 2 ft or less through Wednesday night. Then gradually
increasing swells could bring seas up to 4-5 ft by Friday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...CB/Foisy
Short Term...Maloit
Long Term...Maloit
Aviation...CB/Foisy/Maloit
Marine...CB/Foisy/Maloit