731
FXUS61 KCAR 290145
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
945 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region overnight through early
Wednesday. Upper level low pressure will remain over the area
into Thursday then slowly lift to the northeast on Friday. High
pressure builds in from the west on Saturday and drifts overhead
by Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Update...
The last of the showers and isolated thunderstorms has exited
to the east of Houlton and across the international border into
New Brunswick province. Weak cold front is moving across the
region at time, with secondary cold front to the west, across
Quebec province. That secondary front will cross the region
later tonight through early Wednesday morning. Drier air will
follow the passage of the front overnight. Until then, there
could be patchy fog developing for a while tonight. Lows tonight
will range from the upper 40s to around 50 north and lower 50s
Downeast.

See updated aviation section below.

previous discussion
By Wednesday, weak surface ridging will move into the area,
clearing out clouds in the south, but keeping the north in
mostly to partly cloud skies. The cool and breezy W flow will
drive temps into the mid 60s in the north and low 70s in the
south. With dewpoints in the 40s in the north and 50s in the
south, much drier conditions are expected for the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A broad scale upper trough remains over New England through the
period while a large area surface high pressure over eastern
Canada settles southward towards the Great Lakes region during
the period. The surface ridge will be the dominant feature with
little to no precip expected.

A cold front exits offshore Wednesday night with lows dropping
into the 40s to near 50F. Cannot rule out some lows in the mid
30s for the North Woods and some patchy frost.

Guidance has struggled with a another shortwave rounding the
base of the broad upper trough  Thursday and whether it would
move from southern New England and brush the Downeast coast.
Chances have continued to trend lower with the latest analysis
and guidance, and have dropped to slight chance PoPs on the
coast Thursday. In general, we have trended towards less cloud
cover and increased highs towards the upper 60s to near 70F. The
coast will enjoy these temps with the offshore flow, but the
flow will be light enough to ensure an afternoon sea breeze.

With the unseasonably cool air mass in place, the concern for
Thursday night will be lows in the 30s in northern zones and
frost potential.

For Friday, the trend has continued to swing towards less
clouds, lower shower chances in the upper trough and nominally
higher temps. Highs will range from the mid 60s in the Saint
John Valley to around 70F in the Bangor area and the coast. Once
again, the afternoon sea breeze will kick in along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The long wave upper trough will slowly move out of the area
Friday in favor of a high amplitude upper ridge during the
remainder of the period. The overall trend will be towards
no PoPs and warmer temperatures into the weekend. The upper
ridge begins building Friday and now appears likely to remain
over the area well into next week. High temperatures will move
from just below seasonable norms on Friday towards above normal
by Saturday into Tuesday. Highs above 80F becoming increasingly
likely by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Localized patchy fog is possible at the Aroostook
terminals til about 06z, otherwise VFR tonight, then possible
MVFR ceilings developing 10z to 14z Wednesday. VFR Wednesday
afternoon. SW wind 5 to 10 kt, becoming W to NW 10 to 15 kt
after midnight and continuing on Wednesday.

KBGR...VFR through Wednesday. S to SW wind 5 to 10 kt, becoming
W after midnight 10 to 15 kt.

KBHB...LIFR/VLIFR in fog, then improving to VFR after 10z. VFR
on Wednesday. S wind 5 to 10 kt, becoming SW to W 10 to 15 kt
late tonight through Wednesday.

SHORT TERM:
Wednesday night into Saturday...VFR with NW winds 5 to 10 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Seas continue to diminish, thus have discontinued
the SCA for the outerwaters. Winds/seas should remain below SCA
levels through Wednesday. Visibility will be reduced at times
tonight to 1 to 3 NM in patchy fog.

SHORT TERM: No significant weather is expected through the
period as high pressure dominates. Seas will slowly diminish
from around 3 to 4 feet on Wednesday night towards 1 to 2 feet
by later in the week. Winds will be variable, but gusts will
generally be 10 kt or less. No fog is anticipated during the
period.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...TWD/LaFlash
Short Term...MCW
Long Term...MCW
Aviation...TWD/LaFlash/MCW
Marine...TWD/LaFlash/MCW