238
FXUS61 KCAR 161752
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
152 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will slowly shift south through the Downeast
region today and south of the region into the day on Friday.
Unsettled conditions, with daily shower chances, will then
persist through the weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
152 PM Update: Showers and thunderstorms have developed along
the sea breeze boundary moving slowly northwards through the
Interior Downeast region. At the same time, showers are
developing along the stationary front draped across the Central
Highlands and extending northeast into southern Aroostook
county. More showers and storms are possible in this area late
this afternoon with a possible interaction between these two
boundaries.

Previous Discussion...
A stalled frontal boundary continues to sit over the area and
slowly wash out. A mid-level shortwave moving through is
producing showers and some steadier rain north of the Katahdin
region. This activity will diminish later this morning as the
shortwave moves east.

However, with the front nearby, afternoon showers will once
again be a possibility, mainly north of Bangor. The greatest
chance will be from about the Millinocket area into southeastern
Aroostook County. Instability will be lower than yesterday, so
thunderstorms are not expected. Highs today will be in the upper
60s north of Katahdin. Expect lower to mid 70s to the south,
with cooler temperatures at the coast.

Shower activity will mostly come to an end after sunset with the
loss of daytime heating. That said, an isolated shower will
still be possible in the far north. Some fog will be possible
late, mainly Downeast and into the Bangor region. Lows tonight
will be in the 50s, except upper 40s at the coast and near
Estcourt Station.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A surface trof and approaching upper level disturbance along
with diurnal heating will support a chance of showers north,
slight chance Downeast, Friday. Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy
skies north with partly sunny skies Downeast. The approaching
upper level disturbance will help support a chance of showers
across northern areas Friday night. However, with the loss of
diurnal hearing, shower coverage will decrease. Otherwise,
expect mostly cloudy skies across the forecast area Friday
night. The upper level disturbance begins to cross the region
Saturday. At the surface, high pressure centered near Labrador
will ridge back across Downeast areas. The upper level
disturbance will support a chance of showers across mostly
northern/central areas. With surface ridging, expect mostly
cloudy/partly sunny skies Downeast. With the loss of diurnal
heating and the upper disturbance exiting, expect decreasing
shower chances across northern areas Saturday night along with
mostly/partly cloudy skies. Mostly/partly cloudy skies are
expected Downeast. Above normal level temperatures are expected
Friday/Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A disturbance moving south in advance of an approaching upper
ridge could bring a slight chance of showers to northern areas
Sunday. Otherwise, expect partly sunny skies across the
forecast area with surface ridging persisting. The surface
ridge begins to move southeast Monday. At the same time, a
disturbance will flatten the upper ridge. The disturbance could
bring a slight chance/chance of showers to mostly northern
areas Monday. Otherwise, expect partly cloudy skies across the
region Monday. Skies will remain partly cloudy Tuesday. However,
another possible upper level disturbance could also bring a
slight chance/chance of showers to mostly northern areas. Low
pressure tracking west of the region will draw a cold front
toward the forecast area later Wednesday. Expect partly sunny
skies along with a slight chance/chance of afternoon showers.
Temperatures will remain at above normal levels Sunday through
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
MVFR cigs across the north this afternoon will continue to lift
into the evening, becoming VFR through the early evening as
showers dissipate. Thunderstorms along the sea breeze across
interior Downeast may approach the BGR area, but confidence is
low (15%) that lightning will reach this terminal as other
showers approach from the north and inhibit thunderstorm
approach. Winds will be light and variable with various showers
around the entire forecast area interacting with each other.
Occasional gusts over 15 kts are possible near the stronger
showers and storms. Showers will dissipate overnight, but areas
of dense fog may develop and could limit visibilities, which is
most likely to occur at terminals near the coast, and cigs will
likely lower towards MVFR/IFR. Winds will remain light and
variable. Cigs will lift towards VFR once more on Friday with
variable winds 5 to 10 kts.

SHORT TERM:

Friday night...VFR/MVFR. A slight chance to chance of showers
north. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers, mostly north.
Southeast/east winds 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday night...VFR/MVFR. A slight chance/chance of showers
north. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a slight chance to chance of showers
north. VFR Downeast. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Sunday night...VFR/MVFR. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Monday...VFR/MVFR with a slight chance of showers north. VFR
Downeast. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and wave heights remain below Small Craft
Advisory levels today and tonight. Fog will reduce visibility at
times over the waters as warm, humid air moves over the colder
waters.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Friday
through Saturday night. Patchy/areas of fog Friday into
Saturday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser/Clark
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...AStrauser/Clark/Norcross
Marine...AStrauser/Clark/Norcross