135
FXUS61 KCAR 151013
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
613 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front stalls over the region and weakens today into
Friday. A series of upper level disturbances then cross the
region through the weekend, with ridging at the surface.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6:13 AM Update...Added PoPs south of about Millinocket for the
next couple of hours to account for showers passing through.
Shower chances decrease towards mid-morning before increasing
again this afternoon.

Previous Discussion...
A cold front is moving southeastward from Quebec into Maine
early this morning. Ahead of this front, scattered showers have
developed in parts of the area. These showers will decrease in
coverage early this morning. Fog has thus far failed to develop,
though some could still occur Downeast early this morning. Some
breaks in the overcast are expected during the day today.

The front will stall around the Central Highlands today. With
daytime heating, this front will be the focus of shower
development by this afternoon. Soundings indicate enough
instability for some isolated thunderstorms north of the Bangor
region and south of the Crown of Maine. PWATS in this area are
approaching the high-end of climatology for mid-May. Thus, any
showers or thunderstorms could bring some briefly heavy rain.
However, not expecting any flash flooding due to storm movement
and antecedent dry conditions. The thunderstorm threat will end
with the loss of daytime heating. However, showers will still
be around, mainly between Katahdin and the Saint John Valley.

Onshore flow will bring more stable air into the Bangor region
and Downeast today and tonight. This will limit shower
development there. Also a lesser chance of showers in the far
northwest due to some drier air working in north of the front.

High temperatures will be in the lower 70s for most inland
areas today, with mid 70s possible in the warmer spots. Cooler
temperatures will prevail at the coast with onshore flow. Lows
tonight will mainly be in the 50s, except upper 40s at the
coast and near Estcourt Station.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A frontal boundary stalls across the region Thursday, then
weakens Thursday night into Friday. Surface high pressure
centered northeast of Maine ridges across the forecast area
Thursday night through Friday night. Aloft, a disturbance
approaches from the west later Friday then begins to cross the
region Friday night. Expect a chance of showers along the
stalling frontal boundary Thursday, most numerous across
central and northern areas. Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy
skies Thursday. Expect decreasing shower chances Thursday night,
with skies remaining mostly cloudy. The remnants of the stalled
frontal boundary will help support a chance of showers across
northern areas, slight chance Downeast, Friday. Otherwise,
expect mostly cloudy skies north with mostly cloudy/partly sunny
skies Downeast Friday. Expect a slight chance/chance of showers
across mostly northern and central areas Friday night.
Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies Friday night. Expect above
normal level temperatures Thursday/Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A series of difficult to time upper level disturbances will
cross the region through the weekend into early next week.
Surface ridging persists across Downeast areas through the
weekend, then begins to move south early next week. Unsettled
conditions, with a daily slight chance/chance of showers, will
persist through the weekend into early next week with the
disturbances crossing the region. Although the risk of daily
showers will persist through the weekend into early next week,
much of the time will remain dry. The better shower chances
will generally occur across northern areas. Near normal, to
slightly above normal, level temperatures are expected Saturday
through Tuesday. The coolest temperatures Saturday through
Tuesday will likely occur along the Downeast coast, where winds
will remain onshore much of the time.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
Southern Terminals: IFR early this morning at Coastal terminals
with low clouds. Trending to MVFR after 12-13z and then to VFR
this afternoon. Mainly VFR today at BGR with brief MVFR possible
this morning. IFR or lower possible tonight with low clouds and
fog. S winds 5-10 kts today, becoming light and variable
tonight.

Northern Terminals: Mainly VFR today, except occasional MVFR at
FVE. Brief MVFR/IFR in SHRA this afternoon. VCTS after 18-19z
at HUL and possibly PQI. Aroostook terminals trend to MVFR or
lower tonight with SHRA and BCFG. Light S winds this morning,
becoming N-NE this afternoon and tonight.

SHORT TERM:

Thursday...Occasional IFR/LIFR possible early with any fog.
Otherwise, VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers. Variable winds 5 to
10 knots.

Thursday night...VFR/MVFR. Occasional IFR/LIFR late with any
fog. Decreasing shower chances. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Friday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers north, slight chance
Downeast. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming
southeast/south.

Friday night...VFR/MVFR. A slight chance to chance of showers
north. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday through Sunday...VFR/MVFR. A slight chance to chance of
showers north. A slight chance of showers Downeast.
South/southeast winds 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds and seas remain below Small Craft Advisory
criteria today and tonight. S-SW 5-15 kts with wave heights 1
to 3 feet through tonight. Visibilities will be reduced in fog
at times early this morning and again tonight.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels
Thursday through Friday night. A chance of showers Thursday.
Patchy fog early Thursday, then again Thursday night into
Friday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Clark
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...Clark/Norcross
Marine...Clark/Norcross