Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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503 FXUS64 KCRP 260342 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1042 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 209 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Key Message: - Dangerous heat increases tomorrow! There hasn`t been much change since the previous forecast. A weak upper-level ridge continues to build into the region this afternoon, leading to well-above normal temperatures and dew points tonight and tomorrow, causing elevated heat indices across South Texas. As with the last few days, minimum heat indices will remain in the upper 80s to low 90s tonight, resulting in poor overnight recovery. Therefore, the current Heat Advisory and Excessive Heat Warning have been extended through 7 AM tomorrow. Temperatures and dew points are expected to increase by a few degrees tomorrow and spread eastward as subsidence intensifies. High temperatures will range from the mid 90s along the coast to 100-110 degF from about I-37 westward. With dew points forecasted between the low 70s to low 80s, a major (level 3 out of 4) to extreme (level 4 out of 4) risk of heat-related impacts is expected, with heat indices ranging between 110-125 degF. We are highly confident that another Heat Advisory and Excessive Heat Warning will be needed tomorrow. There is also high certainty that the Excessive Heat Warning will need to expand eastward and northward. However, we will wait to issue those hazard products until the current warnings expire. Bottom line: expect another day of significant to extreme heat-related risks tomorrow and into the evening. As the Memorial Day Holiday weekend continues and many of you will be participating in outdoor activities, please practice heat safety. Stay hydrated, take frequent breaks from the sun, avoid strenuous outdoor activities, wear loose and lightweight clothing, recognize the signs of heat stroke and heat exhaustion, and ALWAYS check your vehicle before locking it. Remember your pets too by bringing them inside and providing plenty of water and shelter. Additionally, check local media and government websites for cooling center locations and hours. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 209 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Key Messages: - Major to extreme heat related impacts through much of next week - Isolated thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday A mid-level ridge over the region will continue to promote subsidence and warm low-level temperatures. This will lead to continued major to extreme heat-related risks across much of the region. The ridge is expected to breakdown late Monday/early Tuesday and will allow for a little relief the rest of the week. Temperatures will drop a few degrees and will also allow for an increase in rain chances as a few shortwaves traverse around the periphery of the High throughout the week. Have a low (20%) chance for showers/thunderstorms Monday evening through Tuesday night with lack of surface lift and upper level support as the limiting factors although dynamics look better north and east of the region where SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has clipped northeastern Victoria county in a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms Monday into early Tuesday. Monday is also the hottest day in the forecast period with surface temperatures of 90-110 degrees combining with above normal moisture will result in heat indices up to 115-120 degrees. A Major to extreme heat related risks that could affect anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration with little to no overnight relief. Despite a slight decrease in temperatures the heat related risks for the remainder of the week will continue to be Major to extreme likely due to the number of hot days, little to no relief overnight could lead to heat build-up in the body making it more susceptible to heat related illness. The rest of the week will have surface air temperatures ranging 90-105 and lows 75-80 degrees under partly cloudy skies. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1031 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 MVFR ceilings have moved into or have begun to move into the eastern sites (CRP, ALI, VCT). This is expected to last until around midmorning before transitioning back to VFR for the remainder of the day. Only site VCT is expected to transition back to MVFR tomorrow evening. The western sites are expected to remain VFR through the remainder of the period. Some brief periods of IFR remains possible at site ALI tomorrow morning as fog could mix with the haze/smoke from Mexico. Winds decrease over night before increasing over the eastern sites with gusts in excess of 20-25 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 209 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 Moderate to strong onshore flow is expected through tomorrow with a low chance for brief Small Craft Advisory conditions (winds around 20 knots or greater). Seas are expected to remain around 4-5 feet tonight before increasing to 5-6 feet tomorrow. Dangerous heat indices are expected tomorrow, ranging from 110-115 degrees. Generally weak to moderate onshore flow is expected through the most of next week becoming Moderate flow towards the end of the week. Expect warm temperatures with heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 80 99 79 97 / 0 10 10 0 Victoria 78 99 77 99 / 0 10 0 0 Laredo 81 110 82 109 / 0 0 10 10 Alice 79 104 78 102 / 0 10 10 10 Rockport 81 93 81 92 / 0 10 10 0 Cotulla 80 109 81 107 / 0 0 10 10 Kingsville 80 102 79 99 / 0 10 10 10 Navy Corpus 82 94 82 92 / 0 10 10 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ229-230- 239>243. Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ231>234-244>247- 342>344-346-347. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...KRS LONG TERM....BF AVIATION...NP/92