193
FXUS64 KCRP 071100
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
600 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Key Messages:

- Not quite as hot and plenty of sunshine!

High pressure will continue building south across the region
through the short term with ample sunshine and slightly drier
conditions. This means our heat index values will remain below
advisory criteria through Saturday.

Another perk of the high pressure is that it will help to clear
out the haze that has been sticking around for what feels like an
eternity. We will see some of the first truly clear skies across
much of the region for the first time in at least a month today
and tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Key Messages:

- Moderate to major heat-related impacts are expected across the Rio
Grande Plains to the Coastal Plains and minor to moderate impacts
across the Victoria Crossroads first half of next week.

Heat Index values (apparent temperatures) are expected to be
generally 105 to 109 each afternoon next week. However, some
locations across the inland Coastal Plains to the Rio Grande may
have brief heat indices around 110 as the sea breeze pushes inland
each day. Will have to monitor for possible Heat Advisories through
the week. Heat Advisories become more likely the latter part of next
week. Actual temperatures will be near to slightly above normal the
first part of next week with highs around 90 along the coast to
around 100 along the Rio Grande. By mid to late week, temperatures
will be hotter with highs around 105 across the Rio Grande Plains.

Models continue to show a trough tracking across TX on Sunday and
east of the region by Monday resulting in a northwest to north flow
aloft as another ridge begins to build into the area from the west.
Models are in good agreement that weak embedded short waves will
track south to southeast through early next week. However, moisture
will remain limited along with a capped environment, which will keep
rain chances low (5-20%). The better chances will be across the
Coastal Waters where deeper moisture and instability are progged to
be located. Overall, most locations will remain dry.

The GFS, which is an outlier, indicates the northerly flow aloft
will push a cold front through S TX Monday night/Tue morning with
convection along the frontal boundary. With the GFS being an outlier
and given the time of year, confidence is very low (<10%) that a
cold front will make it through S TX.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 558 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Mostly VFR conditions will continue through the morning, however,
some patchy fog will continue to affect KALI and KVCT until around
13-14Z. MVFR conditions at KVCT are expected with the fog and
IFR-LIFR at KALI. Widespread VFR conditions return by 14-15Z.
Generally light winds will continue through the forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1252 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024

Weak onshore flow is expected today increasing to weak to
moderate onshore flow levels by tonight. A weak to moderate
onshore flow will persist into next week. There is a low (10-20%)
chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the offshore
waters Sunday, then increasing to low to medium (20-40%) chance
Monday through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    94  76  93  79 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          97  73  95  75 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo           101  75 100  78 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             98  74  97  75 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          93  81  92  81 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla          102  75 102  78 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        96  76  95  78 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       91  81  90  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLM
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...CLM